Welsh Politics is still uninspiring me, so Im glad there something to smile about instead
Here’s Owen Sheers reading his inspiring Grand Slam poem
The Blims on the train home from the match performing ‘Sideburns & Sidesteps’
(The original is here)
Fascinating footage from the tunnel cam at the Millennium Stadium before during and after the match on Saturday
And photos of the Welsh team, fans (and politicians milking it for all its worth) at the Senedd on Monday.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Thought for the Day
There’s been lots of reaction and comment (positive and negative) on Leanne Wood’s election as Plaid Cymru’s new leader and she certainly ran a good campaign coming from outsider to win the contest, but will her election have as big an impact on Welsh politics as many think and if so how will things change?
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Economic annoucements, economic literacy and reporters
A number of economic stories have dominated the headlines over the past week from the closure of 7 of 9 Remploy factories in Wales and the not surprising announcement that the UK’s Green Investment Bank is going to Edinburgh to the Welsh Government’s Science investment announcements and the woeful GDP figures from the European Union today and the latest Federation of Small Business Wales survey on Business confidence, but apart from actual reporting there is always something missing, the short, medium and long terms analysis in both political and economic terms of the impact of each of these stories and what they mean for the welsh economy.
So here’s some initial thoughts, It’s no surprise that the Green Investment Bank went to Edinburgh, but why can’t Wales have its own Green Investment Bank that’s something the Business Minister Edwina Hart should be asked. On Remploy besides the howls of protest which i share because it’s a false economy to close the factories what can the Welsh Government and Local Authorities doing to help?
Moving on to the Welsh Government’s science investment announcements, they look good on paper but how long before the economic benefits will be seen? And no one should be remotely surprised by the horrible GDP figures they have been so bad for so long because the money has been wasted on Ministerial pet projects that its a sad fact of life West Wales and the Valleys are so poor and will remain that way for many years to come.
But i digress, BBC Wales, ITV Wales and Western Mail have Business Editors that focus unsurprisingly on Business news rather than the wider economy, however we have been told BBC Wales is getting an economic correspondent and I welcome that others should follow suit.
I mean how hard can it be to find and employ economics correspondents who know a thing or two about Wales and my other thought is whether there an appetite or room for a Welsh focused publication like the Economist or the Financial Times that would really help with reporting and understanding of recent events.
It would also be beneficial to put economics on the school curriculum to help with economic literacy among the wider population so that we understand what the UK Government, Welsh Government and Local Authorities are responsible for and where thier policies are succeeding and failing in creating jobs, helping business expansion, supporting growing sectors and exports and the like.
So what are the chances of any of this happening, well put it this way there’s more chance of the Welsh Government admitting it got a few things wrong over its economic policy, but I’ve got that off my chest and I feel better already.
So here’s some initial thoughts, It’s no surprise that the Green Investment Bank went to Edinburgh, but why can’t Wales have its own Green Investment Bank that’s something the Business Minister Edwina Hart should be asked. On Remploy besides the howls of protest which i share because it’s a false economy to close the factories what can the Welsh Government and Local Authorities doing to help?
Moving on to the Welsh Government’s science investment announcements, they look good on paper but how long before the economic benefits will be seen? And no one should be remotely surprised by the horrible GDP figures they have been so bad for so long because the money has been wasted on Ministerial pet projects that its a sad fact of life West Wales and the Valleys are so poor and will remain that way for many years to come.
But i digress, BBC Wales, ITV Wales and Western Mail have Business Editors that focus unsurprisingly on Business news rather than the wider economy, however we have been told BBC Wales is getting an economic correspondent and I welcome that others should follow suit.
I mean how hard can it be to find and employ economics correspondents who know a thing or two about Wales and my other thought is whether there an appetite or room for a Welsh focused publication like the Economist or the Financial Times that would really help with reporting and understanding of recent events.
It would also be beneficial to put economics on the school curriculum to help with economic literacy among the wider population so that we understand what the UK Government, Welsh Government and Local Authorities are responsible for and where thier policies are succeeding and failing in creating jobs, helping business expansion, supporting growing sectors and exports and the like.
So what are the chances of any of this happening, well put it this way there’s more chance of the Welsh Government admitting it got a few things wrong over its economic policy, but I’ve got that off my chest and I feel better already.
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Slap down for the Lib Dems and Labour over Welsh education
As is often the case in Welsh politics it takes an outsider to cut through the crap and tell it like it is, the latest example is The Economist’s Bagehot with his take on Lib Dem and Labour on education policy.
The article points out that for all the Lib Dem talk of the lack of cash the real problem with the pitiful state of Welsh Education is down to Labour Welsh Government Minister’s policies of scrapping league tables to please the teaching unions that donate a lot of money to the party.
Bagehot writes ‘Trust me, in education and public sector reform circles, the self-inflicted Welsh education debacle is famous, the stuff of dinner-table conversation.
Yet Mr Clegg gives the malevolent lefties of the Welsh devolved government a free pass, and blames it all on the improbable idea that Gordon Brown did not spend enough during his years in charge of the nation's purse strings.
And goes on to say ‘But it was a passage on schools that really stands out. Mr Clegg asked local MPs, members of the devolved Welsh Assembly and councillors to contemplate Labour's sorry legacy on education, noting that Welsh examination results lag markedly behind the rest of the country:
That is Labour’s legacy to the children of Wales and I’m proud you’re putting it right. Labour has let the spending gap between pupils in England and pupils in Wales grow every year since the assembly was established. And the results are there for all to see. Worse GCSE results than English pupils. Worse A-Level results than English pupils. Leaving Welsh young people with fewer chances and worse prospects than those in England. Education used to be something Wales could be proud of. But under Labour standards have slipped back and back and back. Labour should be ashamed
Mr Clegg knows this is nonsense. Labour did many things for state education, some bad and some good, in 13 years in office at Westminster. But one thing that Labour undoubtedly did was test to destruction the idea that throwing money at schools magically improves academic outcomes. In a single decade, Labour almost doubled school spending per pupil. Yet in international studies such as the PISA tests, English school results stagnated while others surged ahead. Only about half of English pupils achieve a decent pass in English and maths examinations for 16 year olds, despite years of systematic dumbing-down of those examinations. In Singapore, the proportion is four in five.
Worse, Welsh exam results fell so precipitously during the Labour era that academics from elsewhere flocked to the principality to investigate what had gone wrong. They discovered not a funding gap but a man-made crisis triggered by Welsh politicians, who bowed to bullying from teachers' unions and scrapped examination league tables.
By scrapping league tables, and thus denying Welsh parents the ability to see how different local schools were performing, Welsh politicians offered educationalists a remarkable controlled experiment. With league tables in place across England but ditched in Wales, and with Welsh and English pupils sitting the same public examinations, scholars were able to test the hypothesis that publishing exam data improves results. They found not just a bit of evidence, but rock-solid evidence.'
Kirsty and the Lib Dems made much of their pupil premium when supporting Labour’s budget before Christmas, in the cold light of day it perhaps wasn’t the great leap forward for education in Wales the spin suggests.
The full article is here and well worth a read, now if only Welsh journalists were capable of blowing holes in the Welsh Government’s policies like this on a regular basis, we might have more accountable, responsive Government Ministers and a more engaged electorate here in Wales.
The article points out that for all the Lib Dem talk of the lack of cash the real problem with the pitiful state of Welsh Education is down to Labour Welsh Government Minister’s policies of scrapping league tables to please the teaching unions that donate a lot of money to the party.
Bagehot writes ‘Trust me, in education and public sector reform circles, the self-inflicted Welsh education debacle is famous, the stuff of dinner-table conversation.
Yet Mr Clegg gives the malevolent lefties of the Welsh devolved government a free pass, and blames it all on the improbable idea that Gordon Brown did not spend enough during his years in charge of the nation's purse strings.
And goes on to say ‘But it was a passage on schools that really stands out. Mr Clegg asked local MPs, members of the devolved Welsh Assembly and councillors to contemplate Labour's sorry legacy on education, noting that Welsh examination results lag markedly behind the rest of the country:
That is Labour’s legacy to the children of Wales and I’m proud you’re putting it right. Labour has let the spending gap between pupils in England and pupils in Wales grow every year since the assembly was established. And the results are there for all to see. Worse GCSE results than English pupils. Worse A-Level results than English pupils. Leaving Welsh young people with fewer chances and worse prospects than those in England. Education used to be something Wales could be proud of. But under Labour standards have slipped back and back and back. Labour should be ashamed
Mr Clegg knows this is nonsense. Labour did many things for state education, some bad and some good, in 13 years in office at Westminster. But one thing that Labour undoubtedly did was test to destruction the idea that throwing money at schools magically improves academic outcomes. In a single decade, Labour almost doubled school spending per pupil. Yet in international studies such as the PISA tests, English school results stagnated while others surged ahead. Only about half of English pupils achieve a decent pass in English and maths examinations for 16 year olds, despite years of systematic dumbing-down of those examinations. In Singapore, the proportion is four in five.
Worse, Welsh exam results fell so precipitously during the Labour era that academics from elsewhere flocked to the principality to investigate what had gone wrong. They discovered not a funding gap but a man-made crisis triggered by Welsh politicians, who bowed to bullying from teachers' unions and scrapped examination league tables.
By scrapping league tables, and thus denying Welsh parents the ability to see how different local schools were performing, Welsh politicians offered educationalists a remarkable controlled experiment. With league tables in place across England but ditched in Wales, and with Welsh and English pupils sitting the same public examinations, scholars were able to test the hypothesis that publishing exam data improves results. They found not just a bit of evidence, but rock-solid evidence.'
Kirsty and the Lib Dems made much of their pupil premium when supporting Labour’s budget before Christmas, in the cold light of day it perhaps wasn’t the great leap forward for education in Wales the spin suggests.
The full article is here and well worth a read, now if only Welsh journalists were capable of blowing holes in the Welsh Government’s policies like this on a regular basis, we might have more accountable, responsive Government Ministers and a more engaged electorate here in Wales.
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Welfare reforms will hit Wales hard, so what are the Welsh Government gonna do about it?
This week saw the publication of a report for the Welsh Government off the impact on Wales of the Conservative/Lib Dem welfare reforms and it's no surprise that the report stated large numbers of welsh families dependent on all types of benefits from Job Seekers Allowance and Incapacity Benefit to Child Benefit and Tax Credits will be significantly worse off as a result of the changes.
So my question is what are the Welsh Government going to do apart from complain bitterly and call the Tories and Lib Dems names to help people, families and businesses who will struggle to make ends meet, pay bills, create jobs and the like in the coming months and years?
The summary of the findings are below and the full report is here
Wales has a higher dependence on welfare benefits than Great Britain as a whole. The latest statistics (for May 2011) show that 18.4 per cent of the working-age population in Wales were claiming welfare benefits compared to the Great Britain average of 14.5 per cent. The main reason for the higher benefit claimant rate in Wales is the higher proportion of people claiming disability and sickness benefits.
Stage 1 of the analysis has largely drawn on existing evidence published by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), which has assessed the combined impact of the tax and benefit changes announced by the Coalition Government. To our knowledge, there is currently very limited evidence on the cumulative impact of the benefit changes in isolation, and particularly at a Wales level. However, this will be considered as part of Stage 2, which we currently anticipate will be completed around the end of 2012.
The ultimate effects of the welfare reforms will largely depend on the strength of the wider economy and the extent to which people change their behaviour in response to benefit reductions. Although existing analysis is mostly static in nature in that it does not attempt to estimate likely behavioural responses, it is a useful starting point. Stage 2 will try to estimate the likely behavioural responses including how these responses may change depending on a range of scenarios for the economy in Wales.
Analysis from the IFS following the Spending Review 2010 estimates that the impact of the tax and benefit changes to be implemented by 2014–15 will mean that on average households in Wales can expect to lose 4.1 per cent of their income (or £1,110 per year). This compares to a UK average loss of 3.8 per cent (or £1,170 per year). Variations in the impact of the tax and benefit reforms across countries and regions in the UK are due to differences in the characteristics of households.
Out of the 12 UK regions and countries analysed by the IFS, households in Wales are expected to have the fifth largest average cash loss, although this is less than the average cash loss for the UK as a whole. This is because the overall cash loss for the UK is skewed upwards by some very large cash losses for the very richest households, a disproportionate share of which are located in London. However, the average loss as a percentage of income is estimated to be greater in Wales than the UK as a whole. This is because average incomes are lower in Wales than in the UK. 4 Analysing the impact of the UK Government’s welfare reforms in Wales: Summary of the key findings
The IFS note that the tax and benefit changes to be implemented over the next several years will be regressive in nature at the UK level (i.e. they will take more proportionately from lower-income groups than from higher-income groups except the very richest income group), and are likely to be even more regressive in Wales.
Looking at the proportion of the population claiming out-of-work benefits together with the distribution of low-income households in Wales suggests that the South Wales Valleys and the inner city areas of Cardiff, Newport and Swansea are most likely to be disproportionately impacted by the benefit changes.
Recently extended IFS analysis (which includes measures announced in the Autumn Statement 2011) estimates the impact of the tax and benefit reforms on different household types (at a UK level). Families with children are expected to lose proportionately more of their income across the income distribution compared to pensioner households and working-age households without children. Furthermore, the poorest households with children are estimated to lose the largest proportion of their income as a result of the tax and benefit changes. In particular, non-working lone parents and workless couples with children are expected to suffer a disproportionate financial hit. Families with children aged under five and families with more than two children will also be particularly badly affected.
The IFS has also analysed the impact on poverty of the tax and benefit reforms announced by the Coalition Government up until summer 2011. This suggests that the reforms will raise poverty among families with children more than among working-age adults without children. Furthermore, as announced in the Autumn Statement 2011, the above-inflation increase in the child element of Child Tax Credit will not go ahead, meaning more bad news for families in Wales. Both the IFS and HM Treasury estimate an increase in UK relative child poverty of around 100,000 in 2012–13. Based on proportionate shares adjusted for differences in poverty, the Welsh Government provisionally estimates that the tax and benefit reforms could increase relative child poverty in Wales by about 6,000 in 2012–13.
So my question is what are the Welsh Government going to do apart from complain bitterly and call the Tories and Lib Dems names to help people, families and businesses who will struggle to make ends meet, pay bills, create jobs and the like in the coming months and years?
The summary of the findings are below and the full report is here
Wales has a higher dependence on welfare benefits than Great Britain as a whole. The latest statistics (for May 2011) show that 18.4 per cent of the working-age population in Wales were claiming welfare benefits compared to the Great Britain average of 14.5 per cent. The main reason for the higher benefit claimant rate in Wales is the higher proportion of people claiming disability and sickness benefits.
Stage 1 of the analysis has largely drawn on existing evidence published by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), which has assessed the combined impact of the tax and benefit changes announced by the Coalition Government. To our knowledge, there is currently very limited evidence on the cumulative impact of the benefit changes in isolation, and particularly at a Wales level. However, this will be considered as part of Stage 2, which we currently anticipate will be completed around the end of 2012.
The ultimate effects of the welfare reforms will largely depend on the strength of the wider economy and the extent to which people change their behaviour in response to benefit reductions. Although existing analysis is mostly static in nature in that it does not attempt to estimate likely behavioural responses, it is a useful starting point. Stage 2 will try to estimate the likely behavioural responses including how these responses may change depending on a range of scenarios for the economy in Wales.
Analysis from the IFS following the Spending Review 2010 estimates that the impact of the tax and benefit changes to be implemented by 2014–15 will mean that on average households in Wales can expect to lose 4.1 per cent of their income (or £1,110 per year). This compares to a UK average loss of 3.8 per cent (or £1,170 per year). Variations in the impact of the tax and benefit reforms across countries and regions in the UK are due to differences in the characteristics of households.
Out of the 12 UK regions and countries analysed by the IFS, households in Wales are expected to have the fifth largest average cash loss, although this is less than the average cash loss for the UK as a whole. This is because the overall cash loss for the UK is skewed upwards by some very large cash losses for the very richest households, a disproportionate share of which are located in London. However, the average loss as a percentage of income is estimated to be greater in Wales than the UK as a whole. This is because average incomes are lower in Wales than in the UK. 4 Analysing the impact of the UK Government’s welfare reforms in Wales: Summary of the key findings
The IFS note that the tax and benefit changes to be implemented over the next several years will be regressive in nature at the UK level (i.e. they will take more proportionately from lower-income groups than from higher-income groups except the very richest income group), and are likely to be even more regressive in Wales.
Looking at the proportion of the population claiming out-of-work benefits together with the distribution of low-income households in Wales suggests that the South Wales Valleys and the inner city areas of Cardiff, Newport and Swansea are most likely to be disproportionately impacted by the benefit changes.
Recently extended IFS analysis (which includes measures announced in the Autumn Statement 2011) estimates the impact of the tax and benefit reforms on different household types (at a UK level). Families with children are expected to lose proportionately more of their income across the income distribution compared to pensioner households and working-age households without children. Furthermore, the poorest households with children are estimated to lose the largest proportion of their income as a result of the tax and benefit changes. In particular, non-working lone parents and workless couples with children are expected to suffer a disproportionate financial hit. Families with children aged under five and families with more than two children will also be particularly badly affected.
The IFS has also analysed the impact on poverty of the tax and benefit reforms announced by the Coalition Government up until summer 2011. This suggests that the reforms will raise poverty among families with children more than among working-age adults without children. Furthermore, as announced in the Autumn Statement 2011, the above-inflation increase in the child element of Child Tax Credit will not go ahead, meaning more bad news for families in Wales. Both the IFS and HM Treasury estimate an increase in UK relative child poverty of around 100,000 in 2012–13. Based on proportionate shares adjusted for differences in poverty, the Welsh Government provisionally estimates that the tax and benefit reforms could increase relative child poverty in Wales by about 6,000 in 2012–13.
Friday, March 2, 2012
Even in St David’s week Labour talk about anything but Wales.
There are few occasion when Wales gets the limelight to itself, so the annual St David’s Day celebrations are a great chance for the Welsh Government to show Wales off to the World, but the Welsh Government is Labour and we shouldn’t be surprised that the main message of the week like any other was mainly attacking the Tories rather than promoting a positive message of Wales.
A few examples of this are the First Minister Carwyn Jones in Brussels slapping down the PM, Carwyn’s spokesman taking pot shots at Welsh wine producers for serving ‘warm wine’ in the Downing Street Party, Business Minister Edwina Hart refusing to appear before the Assembly’s Business and Enterprise committee or the Ministerial gloating at the results of annual BBC Wales opinion poll it was sadly familiar.
But perhaps the most revealing was Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David talking about St George and English nationalism yesterday in Progress. The comments on the piece are telling.
He writes ‘Today is St David’s Day. As a proud Welshman sporting a daffodil on my lapel, I plan to attend a St David’s Day service in Westminster, and throughout the ‘Land of my Fathers’ there will be innumerable events celebrating the history and culture of Wales. In Scotland on 30 November, St Andrew’s Day will be celebrated with even greater enthusiasm. And yet, in contrast, in England St George’s Day celebrations will be decidedly low key.
There are complex historic reasons for this differential patriotism, but a central reason lies in the fact that ‘England’ has been, and still is, the central ‘nation ‘ of a ‘union state’, ie a British state which has been constructed through a series of ‘unions’ with Wales, Ireland and Scotland. With England constituting 85 per cent of the population of the UK, for many ‘England’ has become synonymous with ‘Britain’.
But there are clear indications that the sense of identity of English people is changing. In part because of the development of Welsh and especially Scottish identity in recent years, reinforced by the Welsh assembly and the Scottish parliament, increasing numbers of English people are seeing themselves primarily as ‘English’ rather than British. Recently, the IPPR published a report on Englishness which graphically described the emergence of such an English identity. Perhaps surprisingly, the report highlighted that this growing sense of Englishness transcended the traditional north/south English divide.
The question for the Labour party is how best to respond to ‘Englishness’. I believe that Labour ought to identify itself firmly with patriotic sentiment. Let us say loudly and clearly that to love one’s country and the values it is built upon is entirely positive. For too long the xenophobes have hijacked the flag of St George; it is surely high time for the people of England to reclaim the symbol of their country as a representation of the universal values which most people uphold.
Here there are lessons to be learnt from Wales. At one time many people in Wales used to be uncomfortable with too close an association with Welsh patriotism.
Things are very different now. Most Welsh people warmly embrace Welsh identity and Wales’ national symbols but, at the same time, firmly reject crude Welsh nationalism. In Wales the Labour party is now ‘Welsh Labour’ and indeed the close relationship between Welsh people’s identity and the Labour party is one of the reasons why ‘Welsh Labour’ is increasingly seen as the ‘natural party of Wales’. Recent opinion polls put Welsh Labour at 50 per cent.
‘Identity politics’ is seldom easy, and the dividing line between patriotism and nationalism must always be maintained. But in an age when traditional ‘class politics’ has lost much of its resonance and when insecurity is a hallmark of modern life, I believe that it is important for Labour to examine carefully how best it can align itself as a party with people’s developing sense of identity.'
A few examples of this are the First Minister Carwyn Jones in Brussels slapping down the PM, Carwyn’s spokesman taking pot shots at Welsh wine producers for serving ‘warm wine’ in the Downing Street Party, Business Minister Edwina Hart refusing to appear before the Assembly’s Business and Enterprise committee or the Ministerial gloating at the results of annual BBC Wales opinion poll it was sadly familiar.
But perhaps the most revealing was Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David talking about St George and English nationalism yesterday in Progress. The comments on the piece are telling.
He writes ‘Today is St David’s Day. As a proud Welshman sporting a daffodil on my lapel, I plan to attend a St David’s Day service in Westminster, and throughout the ‘Land of my Fathers’ there will be innumerable events celebrating the history and culture of Wales. In Scotland on 30 November, St Andrew’s Day will be celebrated with even greater enthusiasm. And yet, in contrast, in England St George’s Day celebrations will be decidedly low key.
There are complex historic reasons for this differential patriotism, but a central reason lies in the fact that ‘England’ has been, and still is, the central ‘nation ‘ of a ‘union state’, ie a British state which has been constructed through a series of ‘unions’ with Wales, Ireland and Scotland. With England constituting 85 per cent of the population of the UK, for many ‘England’ has become synonymous with ‘Britain’.
But there are clear indications that the sense of identity of English people is changing. In part because of the development of Welsh and especially Scottish identity in recent years, reinforced by the Welsh assembly and the Scottish parliament, increasing numbers of English people are seeing themselves primarily as ‘English’ rather than British. Recently, the IPPR published a report on Englishness which graphically described the emergence of such an English identity. Perhaps surprisingly, the report highlighted that this growing sense of Englishness transcended the traditional north/south English divide.
The question for the Labour party is how best to respond to ‘Englishness’. I believe that Labour ought to identify itself firmly with patriotic sentiment. Let us say loudly and clearly that to love one’s country and the values it is built upon is entirely positive. For too long the xenophobes have hijacked the flag of St George; it is surely high time for the people of England to reclaim the symbol of their country as a representation of the universal values which most people uphold.
Here there are lessons to be learnt from Wales. At one time many people in Wales used to be uncomfortable with too close an association with Welsh patriotism.
Things are very different now. Most Welsh people warmly embrace Welsh identity and Wales’ national symbols but, at the same time, firmly reject crude Welsh nationalism. In Wales the Labour party is now ‘Welsh Labour’ and indeed the close relationship between Welsh people’s identity and the Labour party is one of the reasons why ‘Welsh Labour’ is increasingly seen as the ‘natural party of Wales’. Recent opinion polls put Welsh Labour at 50 per cent.
‘Identity politics’ is seldom easy, and the dividing line between patriotism and nationalism must always be maintained. But in an age when traditional ‘class politics’ has lost much of its resonance and when insecurity is a hallmark of modern life, I believe that it is important for Labour to examine carefully how best it can align itself as a party with people’s developing sense of identity.'
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Happy St David’s Day/Dydd Gŵyl Dewi Hapus
Wherever you are and whatever you’re doing today enjoy the day, I’ve got my daffodils, welsh cakes and a pint of Brains for later
Hat Tip to Welsh Icons for an excellent video of Wales
Hat Tip to Welsh Icons for an excellent video of Wales
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