So the Welsh Labour leadership is underway and as I and many others believed even before it kicked off its a change of personnel rather than a change of direction that’s on offer from all the candidates, but in case Welsh Labour is getting bored and needs a distraction there’s a by election just around the corner.
I’m sure Welsh Labour MP’s will be keeping an eye on the upcoming Glasgow North East by election next month to see how some of them might fair at the next General Election when if the polls are right a Labour meltdown is expected. Most Welsh Labour MP’s can afford to lose a few thousand votes and still keep their seats but it will show the state of the party’s membership and their commitment to campaigning for the Labour Party will be interesting to watch.
Glasgow North East is of course the seat of former Speaker Michael Martin and rock solid Labour, the type of seat where you could put a rosette on a donkey and it would get elected. Most pundits think Labour will hang on the seat and there’s even talk of Gordon Brown joining the campaign, but Alex Salmond and the Scottish National Party will be trying their best to spring a surprise as they did in the next door constituency of Glasgow East last year, the contest will be fascinating.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Preparations are underway
We had confirmation today of what has been suspected for a while by BBC Wales Political Editor Betsan Powys that the referendum on full law making powers and its implications are being discussed at length behind the scenes ahead of Sir Emyr Jones Parry’s report due next month by all the political parties and if this is the case then preparation are no doubt underway to organize the YES and NO Campaigns to come.
No one can be sure what’s in the final report or what the timescale for a referendum will be, but if the leaks are true then Sir Emyr’s Report will recommend going full steam ahead with the referendum which could be held before the next General Election. This would certainly make the next few months in Welsh politics fascinating, but how good will it be for party unity in the run up to a General Election is anybody's guess.
No one can be sure what’s in the final report or what the timescale for a referendum will be, but if the leaks are true then Sir Emyr’s Report will recommend going full steam ahead with the referendum which could be held before the next General Election. This would certainly make the next few months in Welsh politics fascinating, but how good will it be for party unity in the run up to a General Election is anybody's guess.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Jonathan on Social Justice
Tory AM Jonathan Morgan is continuing to lay out his stall for his leadership bid when the opportunity arises and today is claiming that the Conservatives can do social justice better than the Labour Party or Plaid Cymru.
He talks a lot about getting Britain working that is all around the Tory Party conference this week and it’s another positive step that's he is thinking about Welsh solutions to the long standing problems Wales is facing, it’s certainly better than this pap on offer from his boss in the Assembly a few weeks ago.
Jonathan's idea is to rework the Communities First programme that has been running since 2001 and has mixed results to say the least with tougher targets, but why is Jonathan aligning himself to as he says a failed scheme that is associated with the Welsh Labour Government. Surely if he believes in the bottom up approach that those who work at the front line of regeneration in Wales knows works then he should have come up with a Welsh Conservative plan to take its place and given him the credibility in what will be a tough battle to convince his party colleagues that this is the right path to follow.
He talks a lot about getting Britain working that is all around the Tory Party conference this week and it’s another positive step that's he is thinking about Welsh solutions to the long standing problems Wales is facing, it’s certainly better than this pap on offer from his boss in the Assembly a few weeks ago.
Jonathan's idea is to rework the Communities First programme that has been running since 2001 and has mixed results to say the least with tougher targets, but why is Jonathan aligning himself to as he says a failed scheme that is associated with the Welsh Labour Government. Surely if he believes in the bottom up approach that those who work at the front line of regeneration in Wales knows works then he should have come up with a Welsh Conservative plan to take its place and given him the credibility in what will be a tough battle to convince his party colleagues that this is the right path to follow.
Alternative Views
Two interesting articles below on the Conservatives and the Budget Deficit which challenge the current media narrative of things are worse than they have ever been and it’s all due to the Government’s bad management
Firstly from the Financial Times ‘Debt ratios of this size are historically far from unprecedented’.
And from the Independent ‘Cameron's later decision to play up the "debt crisis" will take up even more reflective melancholy space in his memoirs.
Firstly from the Financial Times ‘Debt ratios of this size are historically far from unprecedented’.
And from the Independent ‘Cameron's later decision to play up the "debt crisis" will take up even more reflective melancholy space in his memoirs.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
We shouldn’t really be that surprised
You have to hand it to the Welsh Assembly Government with its economic record and the current climate for looking after its own needs and vested interests in the draft budget for 2010/11 published by Finance Minister Andrew Davies yesterday, rather than looking at what’s actually needed across Wales and crafting an admittedly tight budget for next year accordingly.
It’s made worse because its got Rhodri Morgan’s fingerprints all over it, but he will be long retired before the budget squeeze starts to impact everyone in Wales, would that be tolerated in other countries.
Anyway back to the draft budget which proposes increasing the Health and Social Service budget along with environment and housing and sustainability budgets in real terms and while there is nothing to disagree with in that, it means there is less for Education and Economic Development in real terms at a time when Wales is suffering disproportionately from the recession – I guess the 100,000 plus unemployed and daily small business closures are not having that much impact in Cardiff Bay with the Government or the Opposition.
On the plus side it’s only a draft, the final budget will be published in December so it’s possible changes can be made lets hope that our AM’s of all parties are up to the challenge of putting together a fairer budget for all our sakes, after all how can Wales become a ‘small clever country’ that our First Minister often speaks about when his Government cuts education and training opportunities as well as the economic development budgets year on year?
It’s made worse because its got Rhodri Morgan’s fingerprints all over it, but he will be long retired before the budget squeeze starts to impact everyone in Wales, would that be tolerated in other countries.
Anyway back to the draft budget which proposes increasing the Health and Social Service budget along with environment and housing and sustainability budgets in real terms and while there is nothing to disagree with in that, it means there is less for Education and Economic Development in real terms at a time when Wales is suffering disproportionately from the recession – I guess the 100,000 plus unemployed and daily small business closures are not having that much impact in Cardiff Bay with the Government or the Opposition.
On the plus side it’s only a draft, the final budget will be published in December so it’s possible changes can be made lets hope that our AM’s of all parties are up to the challenge of putting together a fairer budget for all our sakes, after all how can Wales become a ‘small clever country’ that our First Minister often speaks about when his Government cuts education and training opportunities as well as the economic development budgets year on year?
Monday, October 5, 2009
A Lack of Imagination
Incapacity Benefit (IB) and Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimants are an easy target for any Government that wants to save money because those people rely on the Government for money to live on and for rent, plus there is often little political or public resistance to any changes because they don’t affect the majority of voters. It’s also true that those who claim Benefit can’t fight back because they will lose money and the roof over their head as well.
But where’s the imagination in what’s on offer by our political leaders, because today’s proposals on Benefit is the one of taking the path of least resistance in tackling the budget deficit and the Conservatives are not alone in this, the Labour Government published similar proposals to cut £25 from Incapacity claimants recently as well which were hardly reported and the reason we have heard so little criticism from Government Ministers today.
On a practical note if the proposals go ahead how much will actually be saved by moving people on to JSA because the Government will still have to hire more staff for the Jobcentres and open or reopen Jobcentres to cope with the thousands of extra people who will be signing on every fortnight. I ask because as things stand there are already areas of the UK who are asking JSA claimants to come every four weeks to sign on as they are simply overwhelmed with numbers of people newly unemployed coming through the Job Centre doors due to the recession.
Which brings me to a point I raised a few weeks ago and that is why no one is talking about new growth areas for the economy (Dylan Jones Evans aside) as well as public service cuts and tax rises to help reduce the budget deficit as an option. It may not as sexy and headline grabbing as ‘get the workshy back to work, but creating jobs for the roughly 3- 4 million people claiming Job Seekers Allowance and Incapacity Benefit that both the Labour and Conservative Party’s say are capable of working is more progressive than the short term slash and burn on offer and is better for our communities especially here in Wales with large number of people on Incapacity Benefit.
And just because the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru are unlikely to form the next UK Government it does not mean they aren’t as lacking as the other Party’s in being able to think outside the box on the benefit issues either.
Update some more reading on the issue from Marcus and Valleys Mam
But where’s the imagination in what’s on offer by our political leaders, because today’s proposals on Benefit is the one of taking the path of least resistance in tackling the budget deficit and the Conservatives are not alone in this, the Labour Government published similar proposals to cut £25 from Incapacity claimants recently as well which were hardly reported and the reason we have heard so little criticism from Government Ministers today.
On a practical note if the proposals go ahead how much will actually be saved by moving people on to JSA because the Government will still have to hire more staff for the Jobcentres and open or reopen Jobcentres to cope with the thousands of extra people who will be signing on every fortnight. I ask because as things stand there are already areas of the UK who are asking JSA claimants to come every four weeks to sign on as they are simply overwhelmed with numbers of people newly unemployed coming through the Job Centre doors due to the recession.
Which brings me to a point I raised a few weeks ago and that is why no one is talking about new growth areas for the economy (Dylan Jones Evans aside) as well as public service cuts and tax rises to help reduce the budget deficit as an option. It may not as sexy and headline grabbing as ‘get the workshy back to work, but creating jobs for the roughly 3- 4 million people claiming Job Seekers Allowance and Incapacity Benefit that both the Labour and Conservative Party’s say are capable of working is more progressive than the short term slash and burn on offer and is better for our communities especially here in Wales with large number of people on Incapacity Benefit.
And just because the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru are unlikely to form the next UK Government it does not mean they aren’t as lacking as the other Party’s in being able to think outside the box on the benefit issues either.
Update some more reading on the issue from Marcus and Valleys Mam
Sunday, October 4, 2009
The cracks are starting to show
Tory Leader Nick Bourne gave an unconvincing interview to the Politics Show Wales on the impact a Conservative Government would have in Wales today, he bluffed his way through questions on David Cameron priorities which by his answers even he doesn’t fully know, he then trotted out some well rehearsed lines about the Labour Party ruining the country and was almost stumped by questions on how many people in Wales would benefit from the Inheritance Tax changes the Tories would bring in – the party will have to hope he has a more coherent message to sell in Manchester this week.
His comments were preceded this week by Cheryl Gillan MP who if the opinion polls are right is on course to be the Secretary of State for Wales in about seven months and judging by the interview with the Western Mail she remains uncomfortable with Welsh devolution and the role of the Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) and its Ministers.
The fact Cheryl Gillan has to keep repeating her ‘respect for Devolution’ every time she talks to the welsh media is a not promising and the fact she wants a relationship with WAG based on ‘mutual respect’ shorthand for we set the priorities in Westminster, not you in the Welsh Assembly Government will not please everyone, Tory AM’s included.
More worrying for the day to day relationship between the WAG and the new Secretary of State was the part that said “If Rhodri Morgan’s successor wants to close that door to dialogue, that will be on their own heads, because I have conducted myself right from day one as being open and ready to discuss things,” she said’. It suggests Cheryl Gillan is gearing up for immediate problems on the first day she arrives in the Welsh Office, not good for the stability of either Government.
There is also little sign of willingness by either Nick or Cheryl to engage on the future referendum for full lawmaking powers something that the other political parties will continue to highlight and cause difficulties for the Party, Cheryl Gillan refused to the drawn on the issue according to the Western Mail and Nick Bourne today skirted round the issue by saying that David Cameron and Cheryl Gillan would be at the National Assembly more often rather than address the issue head on.
And finally is the less testosterone fueled comment another endorsement for Edwina Hart to be First Minister from the Conservative's following Jonathan Morgan AM and former AM Glyn Davies earlier this week, and what will Ieuan Wyn Jones make of the statement because he will still be there after the new First Minister and Secretary of State have been appointed?
His comments were preceded this week by Cheryl Gillan MP who if the opinion polls are right is on course to be the Secretary of State for Wales in about seven months and judging by the interview with the Western Mail she remains uncomfortable with Welsh devolution and the role of the Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) and its Ministers.
The fact Cheryl Gillan has to keep repeating her ‘respect for Devolution’ every time she talks to the welsh media is a not promising and the fact she wants a relationship with WAG based on ‘mutual respect’ shorthand for we set the priorities in Westminster, not you in the Welsh Assembly Government will not please everyone, Tory AM’s included.
More worrying for the day to day relationship between the WAG and the new Secretary of State was the part that said “If Rhodri Morgan’s successor wants to close that door to dialogue, that will be on their own heads, because I have conducted myself right from day one as being open and ready to discuss things,” she said’. It suggests Cheryl Gillan is gearing up for immediate problems on the first day she arrives in the Welsh Office, not good for the stability of either Government.
There is also little sign of willingness by either Nick or Cheryl to engage on the future referendum for full lawmaking powers something that the other political parties will continue to highlight and cause difficulties for the Party, Cheryl Gillan refused to the drawn on the issue according to the Western Mail and Nick Bourne today skirted round the issue by saying that David Cameron and Cheryl Gillan would be at the National Assembly more often rather than address the issue head on.
And finally is the less testosterone fueled comment another endorsement for Edwina Hart to be First Minister from the Conservative's following Jonathan Morgan AM and former AM Glyn Davies earlier this week, and what will Ieuan Wyn Jones make of the statement because he will still be there after the new First Minister and Secretary of State have been appointed?
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