We've grown used to what happens in Scottish politics having an impact on Welsh politics but yesterday what happened in Wales made waves in Scottish political circles following the decision by the Conservatives to not block a referendum on further law making powers if AM’s requested it.
The SNP are claiming double standards and Tory hypocrisy over the Conservatives standing in the way of an independence referendum for Scotland while allowing one in Wales. I guess the SNP don’t realise that the referendum even if won would only give the Welsh Assembly some of the powers the Scottish Parliament already has.
The full article is here
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Friday, November 6, 2009
David, Cheryl and Nick
So David Cameron is in North Wales today and will say that we can have a referendum on further transfer of powers if AM’s make the request to a Conservative Government – well let’s face he would be stupid to say anything else, he’s already learnt the cost of cancelling a referendum once this week and the other parties would have had a field day if he put off answering the question much longer and besides its a more appealing message than the ‘everyone’s bored of devolution’ quote he gave the press on a previous visit to Wales.
And it's not just David Cameron struggling to sound reasonable his lieutenants in Wales are doing him or the Tory Party no favours, you know you’re in trouble when Lembit Opik is ridiculing you as he did to Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan following her terrible interview last night on Sharp End in which she couldn’t give a straight answer and was extremely condescending, if I were Labour, Plaid Cymru or the Lib Dems I would be playing that interview to party members at every opportunity I got – scary thing is she could be Welsh Secretary in a few months making Peter Hain look almost normal.
At least Cheryl Gillan is regularly in front of the cameras reinforcing most negative Tory stereotypes, her colleague Tory Assembly Leader Nick Bourne must be losing influence because he’s off the radar i’m trying to remember the last time he was on the TV maybe we should be calling him Mr Invisible because YouGov’s poll confirmed what many people know that is he’s less recognisable and trusted among the Welsh Public than Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams who has been leader for less than a year, Nick has been leader for nearly 10.
So where does this leave Tory leader David Cameron, whatever happens today the Tories will present this announcement as a big deal but its only admitting what they have probably known for a while, that they have to bite the bullet and agree to a referendum or lose votes and be accused by other parties of being anti Welsh, because despite the spin the announcement won’t change the lingering doubts many have that the Tories are still not committed to Devolution even in its current form never mind more powers for Cardiff Bay.
And it's not just David Cameron struggling to sound reasonable his lieutenants in Wales are doing him or the Tory Party no favours, you know you’re in trouble when Lembit Opik is ridiculing you as he did to Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan following her terrible interview last night on Sharp End in which she couldn’t give a straight answer and was extremely condescending, if I were Labour, Plaid Cymru or the Lib Dems I would be playing that interview to party members at every opportunity I got – scary thing is she could be Welsh Secretary in a few months making Peter Hain look almost normal.
At least Cheryl Gillan is regularly in front of the cameras reinforcing most negative Tory stereotypes, her colleague Tory Assembly Leader Nick Bourne must be losing influence because he’s off the radar i’m trying to remember the last time he was on the TV maybe we should be calling him Mr Invisible because YouGov’s poll confirmed what many people know that is he’s less recognisable and trusted among the Welsh Public than Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams who has been leader for less than a year, Nick has been leader for nearly 10.
So where does this leave Tory leader David Cameron, whatever happens today the Tories will present this announcement as a big deal but its only admitting what they have probably known for a while, that they have to bite the bullet and agree to a referendum or lose votes and be accused by other parties of being anti Welsh, because despite the spin the announcement won’t change the lingering doubts many have that the Tories are still not committed to Devolution even in its current form never mind more powers for Cardiff Bay.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
'Remember, gentlemen, Thatcher's cuts didn't actually work'
The title and following is from an article in The Observer’s by its Economics Editor written back in July on the impacts of cuts under the last Conservative Government.
'Lately I have been especially worried by all these inspired reports that Messrs Cameron and Osborne are deep into the study of how the Thatcher team of 1979 approached government. It seems that for the Cameron Conservatives, the big new idea is an old idea. After a brief flirtation with Caring Conservatism, the emphasis is on cuts, cuts and more cuts.
But let us be clear that the first years of the 1979-83 Thatcher period were an almost unmitigated disaster. The new government inherited an inflation rate of around 10%, promising to reduce it by means of an alchemist's formula known as monetarism, and within a year, thanks to obeisance to that false god and other errors of policy, the inflation rate was more than 20%.
The fashion for "cuts" during that period was determined by the obsession with lowering tax rates, although the overall tax "burden" continued to rise well into the 1980s. Unemployment went up, and up, and up. What saved the most unpopular prime minister since records began - one Margaret Thatcher - was the Falklands conflict.'
The article ends with quotes from two economists on the UK’s budget deficit and why according to one of them the UK can't go bankrupt even with the current debt levels.
'Which brings us back to those "cuts" in public spending that are so fashionable, to deal with "the problem of the deficit". Unless and until there are sure signs of recovery, even the Cameronian Conservatives should stop losing sleep over the government deficit.
At a seminar earlier this year Dick Sargent, a distinguished former government and bank economist, put it well: "Some people think that the national debt is like a company debt, owed to people outside the company. But most of our national debt is owed to ourselves, ie to UK residents (individuals, pension funds, trusts, banks, charities and so on). Since the government has the power to raise taxes to pay the interest, there can never be a question of default ('the country going bankrupt', as the media like to say)."
Another veteran economist, Professor Max Corden, pointed out in a recent paper that there is a flaw in what he calls "the Conservative allegation" that the current fiscal stimulus is bound to have adverse effects later.
As he says, this does not take into account the asset side - "the total value of the bonds [and equities] acquired by savers as a result of the rise in incomes brought about by the stimulus". These constitute "a set of assets that exactly offsets the liabilities on which conservative critics of stimulus policies have focused". Moreover, "one must allow for the reasonable possibility that some of the extra public investment that took place in the first period as part of the fiscal stimulus turned out to be socially productive", thus becoming a "positive legacy", not a future drag on the economy.
This is not to deny that during an eventual recovery the public sector's finances will have to be put on a sounder footing, as Chancellor Kenneth Clarke did in 1993-97 once recovery was firmly established. But we are a long way from that position now, and a Conservative government that thought it had learned the putative lessons of the post-1979 Thatcher period would be in danger of causing untold damage.'
'Lately I have been especially worried by all these inspired reports that Messrs Cameron and Osborne are deep into the study of how the Thatcher team of 1979 approached government. It seems that for the Cameron Conservatives, the big new idea is an old idea. After a brief flirtation with Caring Conservatism, the emphasis is on cuts, cuts and more cuts.
But let us be clear that the first years of the 1979-83 Thatcher period were an almost unmitigated disaster. The new government inherited an inflation rate of around 10%, promising to reduce it by means of an alchemist's formula known as monetarism, and within a year, thanks to obeisance to that false god and other errors of policy, the inflation rate was more than 20%.
The fashion for "cuts" during that period was determined by the obsession with lowering tax rates, although the overall tax "burden" continued to rise well into the 1980s. Unemployment went up, and up, and up. What saved the most unpopular prime minister since records began - one Margaret Thatcher - was the Falklands conflict.'
The article ends with quotes from two economists on the UK’s budget deficit and why according to one of them the UK can't go bankrupt even with the current debt levels.
'Which brings us back to those "cuts" in public spending that are so fashionable, to deal with "the problem of the deficit". Unless and until there are sure signs of recovery, even the Cameronian Conservatives should stop losing sleep over the government deficit.
At a seminar earlier this year Dick Sargent, a distinguished former government and bank economist, put it well: "Some people think that the national debt is like a company debt, owed to people outside the company. But most of our national debt is owed to ourselves, ie to UK residents (individuals, pension funds, trusts, banks, charities and so on). Since the government has the power to raise taxes to pay the interest, there can never be a question of default ('the country going bankrupt', as the media like to say)."
Another veteran economist, Professor Max Corden, pointed out in a recent paper that there is a flaw in what he calls "the Conservative allegation" that the current fiscal stimulus is bound to have adverse effects later.
As he says, this does not take into account the asset side - "the total value of the bonds [and equities] acquired by savers as a result of the rise in incomes brought about by the stimulus". These constitute "a set of assets that exactly offsets the liabilities on which conservative critics of stimulus policies have focused". Moreover, "one must allow for the reasonable possibility that some of the extra public investment that took place in the first period as part of the fiscal stimulus turned out to be socially productive", thus becoming a "positive legacy", not a future drag on the economy.
This is not to deny that during an eventual recovery the public sector's finances will have to be put on a sounder footing, as Chancellor Kenneth Clarke did in 1993-97 once recovery was firmly established. But we are a long way from that position now, and a Conservative government that thought it had learned the putative lessons of the post-1979 Thatcher period would be in danger of causing untold damage.'
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Welsh Stock Market gathering support
It’s only one article in the Western Mail but it seems from the range of business people backing the idea of a Welsh Stock Exchange floated Lib Dem AM Jenny Randerson over at WalesHome a few weeks ago is at long last being taken seriously with CBI Wales saying the idea should be explored thoroughly and by Simon Brickles, the former head of the London-based Alternative Investment Market and chief executive of Plus Markets – a specialist stock exchange also in the UK capital.
When the article was published I left a comments saying, let’s see what political support the idea gets because it will need political as well as business support to get it off the ground, but so far only Conservative AM David Melding’s mild words of support the idea have emerged both Labour and Plaid Cymru seem to be ignoring the idea , especially strange for Plaid Cymru who I would have thought would have jumped at the chance for a Welsh Stock Exchange but maybe it’s been put forward by a Lib Dem so they can’t support it and as for Labour, the leadership are looking for bold ideas so why not embrace this one and shake off the anti business tag they have acquired over the years.
The Welsh Stock Market idea has been around for a while and has been proposed by business leaders, politicians and academic before, but opportunities for really changing the way things are done are rare and need as much support as they can get to succeed, so is WAG and the rest of our politicians going to let this one slip through their fingers because they can’t think outside the box, we shall see.
When the article was published I left a comments saying, let’s see what political support the idea gets because it will need political as well as business support to get it off the ground, but so far only Conservative AM David Melding’s mild words of support the idea have emerged both Labour and Plaid Cymru seem to be ignoring the idea , especially strange for Plaid Cymru who I would have thought would have jumped at the chance for a Welsh Stock Exchange but maybe it’s been put forward by a Lib Dem so they can’t support it and as for Labour, the leadership are looking for bold ideas so why not embrace this one and shake off the anti business tag they have acquired over the years.
The Welsh Stock Market idea has been around for a while and has been proposed by business leaders, politicians and academic before, but opportunities for really changing the way things are done are rare and need as much support as they can get to succeed, so is WAG and the rest of our politicians going to let this one slip through their fingers because they can’t think outside the box, we shall see.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Is Hammersmith and Fulham a taste of things to come?
Local Authority budgets will be much tighter in the next few years whoever in is power, but is the Conservative controlled Hammersmith and Fulham Council the sort of blueprint all Local Authorities will be adhering too after the next election. To be fair the Council has delivered lower Council Tax but also innovation and cost cutting – jobs and service cuts in ordinary speak something all Local Authorities will have to think about.
According to the Times ‘The Conservative leadership will be ambivalent about embracing Hammersmith & Fulham too tightly. Although the Tories have appointed Mr Greenhalgh to head their Conservative Council Innovation Unit, his punchy style and willingness to court controversy risk allowing Labour to scratch the veneer of caring liberalism that David Cameron has applied to his party. Higher charges for services, cuts in staffing and a willingness to contract out provision can all be used to suggest that Mr Cameron is Tony Blair in Thatcherite clothing’
It goes on to say ‘Many Conservative councillors and activists are privately enthusiastic about the possibility of major changes to public services so as to make it possible to cut costs and thus reduce council tax. One of the last key differences between the Tories and Labour is their respective activists’ views about the state. Most Conservatives want a smaller public sector with lower taxes, while most Labour supporters would be happy to keep the state at its current size or increase it, even if taxes have to rise.
The policies of ambitious Conservative leaders such as Mr Greenhalgh are merely the embodiment of what many Tories privately believe. In fairness to such small-state Conservatives, all councils will be faced with demands for reductions in spending of perhaps 10 to 15 per cent during the coming decade.’
How will this play in Wales, well it will be interesting to see if and when proposals such as these put forward by a Conservative Government what the response will be of the Conservative Group in the National Assembly for Wales, because they have criticized WAG for cutting Welsh Local Government’s budgets year in year out since the Assembly was created.
According to the Times ‘The Conservative leadership will be ambivalent about embracing Hammersmith & Fulham too tightly. Although the Tories have appointed Mr Greenhalgh to head their Conservative Council Innovation Unit, his punchy style and willingness to court controversy risk allowing Labour to scratch the veneer of caring liberalism that David Cameron has applied to his party. Higher charges for services, cuts in staffing and a willingness to contract out provision can all be used to suggest that Mr Cameron is Tony Blair in Thatcherite clothing’
It goes on to say ‘Many Conservative councillors and activists are privately enthusiastic about the possibility of major changes to public services so as to make it possible to cut costs and thus reduce council tax. One of the last key differences between the Tories and Labour is their respective activists’ views about the state. Most Conservatives want a smaller public sector with lower taxes, while most Labour supporters would be happy to keep the state at its current size or increase it, even if taxes have to rise.
The policies of ambitious Conservative leaders such as Mr Greenhalgh are merely the embodiment of what many Tories privately believe. In fairness to such small-state Conservatives, all councils will be faced with demands for reductions in spending of perhaps 10 to 15 per cent during the coming decade.’
How will this play in Wales, well it will be interesting to see if and when proposals such as these put forward by a Conservative Government what the response will be of the Conservative Group in the National Assembly for Wales, because they have criticized WAG for cutting Welsh Local Government’s budgets year in year out since the Assembly was created.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)