Saturday, November 14, 2009

Assembly Finance Committee tells it like it is

The National Assembly’s Finance Committee this week said the Welsh Assembly Government’s current budget was not helping Wales come through the recession. The main concerns raised were over efficiency savings and the NHS budget for next year.

The report criticized difficulties in measuring £600m of efficiency savings; an apparent ‘lack of coherence’ between ministerial portfolios; and trouble in tracing the effectiveness of cross-cutting policies such as child poverty.(Funding for health and social services accounts for 40.3% of the budget next year, while the share for the economy and transport fell from 8.1% to 7.6%).

And members found it difficult to understand how the same plans will deliver the same One Wales objectives - which the Labour-Plaid coalition aim to achieve while in government - in changed economic circumstances with Committee members now wanting to see Finance Minister Andrew Davies give his reasons for keeping to current plans.

Committee chair Angela Burns AM said: "The finance committee's main comment is the view that the draft budget does not seem to respond adequately to the difficult circumstances that now confront Wales as it is in one of the deepest recessions of recent years.

The report’s conclusions were backed by the Labour, Liberal Democrats and Conservative members on the Committee, while Plaid Cymru’s Chris Franks saying he couldn’t agree with many of the recommendations and tried to add amendments to save Ieuan Wyn Jones blushes no doubt and Chris Franks was accused of leaking the report to the press by Committee Chair Angela Burns, more on that in the Daily Post article above.

Despite the Committee raising some important concerns over WAG’s budget that many will agree with, I don’t believe they will take the slightest notice the Finance Committee report or alter the draft budget for this year, especially with First Minister Rhodri Morgan standing down after its approved next month, but still it’s nice to know that you’re not alone in thinking the WAG’s budget could be improved.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Another Victory For The “Naebody” Party

To be honest the last place I expected to find an interesting take on the Glasgow North East By Election and its results was in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), but such is the ‘Gordon Brown can’t do anything right’ mentality rife in much of the UK press and most of them looking for another angle in today's papers about Labour’s win, maybe I shouldn’t be that surprised.

Anyway I digress; the article in the WSJ contains some uncomfortable home truths for both the Labour and Conservative party's over their policy failures for decades in communities like Glasgow and Labour’s Welsh heartland.

Its says ‘Of course, on the surface the place is rock-solid Labour. The party secured a by-election majority of more than 8,000 and, understandably, Labour strategists are delighted.

Why does the party win there? Partly it is the self-image these places cling to, of being in some ways industrial and working-class despite the reality that so many are out of work. The party’s message is also uncompromisingly “we’re the only ones on your side”, and the area is short on friends.

But Labour also wins partly by default, because so many voters have just given up completely on all politicians and parties. It’s not just simple abstention. It is worse than that. Nothing will ever change, runs the argument, so why bother voting for any of them?

This group is much larger than the remaining Labour voters and quite simple electoral arithmetic means the “naebody” party wins every time. The other parties put on a pathetic showing - the Tories managing just 62 votes more than the racist BNP.

In contrast, the naebody party - meaning nobody, or none of the above - polled 67% of the vote yesterday. It’s the politics of “no we can’t”.

The article ends by saying ‘Both major parties share a portion of the blame for this crumbling of the economic and social fabric and the dumping of millions in an under-class. The Scottish Tories oversaw de-industrialization and had no answer other than welfare for what might replace the old ways. Labour promised to change that, but in a boom didn’t. Since the 1970s, both have acquiesced in widespread educational failure in poor neighbourhoods in Glasgow, Newcastle, London, Manchester and many places beyond.

It has bred disaffection and widespread hopelessness. Look behind the by-election hoopla and this is what the result tells you. Most of the population in Glasgow North East thinks nobody has the answers.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Selective Reading

Since Labour’s sometime blog Aneurin Glyndwr (AG) is back up and running, it has taken the predictable pot shots at Plaid Cymru, Adam Price and the Conservatives, but its latest post shows why Welsh Labour has such a credibility and reality gap with business and why Wales’s GDP is the lowest in the UK because they still can’t see past the ‘radical socialism’ their party was built on and the path they look to be heading back to under a new leader, in fact you could count on one hand the number of new economic proposals put forward by the three Labour leadership candidates and that tells its own story.

They quote from Economist Ed Stansfield of Capital Economics in the Western Mail that big cuts in public spending could stifle a UK recovery that’s music to the ears of Welsh Labour, but the part that shows the one eyed nature of Welsh Labour’s tactics is what Aneurin Glyndwr didn’t highlight, the part which Ed Stansfield says the best way of dealing with the large public debt is with sustained economic growth, something that Welsh Labour for all its influence and dominance has been unable to achieve in Wales for decades and the reason Wales will remain reliant on the public sector that will be hit hard for jobs for the foresee able future.

I have already posted on the question of Economic Growth versus cuts and tax rises HERE

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Depressing and Predictable

Wales had the largest increase in unemployment in the last 3 months of 14,000, the total is now 125,000 or 8.7% of the workforce out of work and is among the worst in the UK, but rather than the parties in Cardiff Bay looking to work together to tackle the difficult job issues that Wales is facing, we have heard the same excuses trotted by WAG and the same old criticisms from the Opposition about high unemployment – it makes you wonder if any of the parties are capable of doing something different, sadly i doubt it this is what we have had :-

The Welsh Assembly Government (Labour and Plaid Cymru) looking for the silver lining (Hat Tip to Betsan Powys)

UPDATE: The Assembly Government have commented, though not on the unemployment figures as they have for the past few months. They've commented solely on the claimant count. That shows a smaller increase than in recent months, despite the big rise in unemployment figures. This is what they're calling "encouraging to note":

"Whilst it is important not to read too much into a single months figures, it is encouraging to note that the claimant count level in Wales has continued its downward trend. During the early stages of the global downturn, the claimant count was rising by around 4,000 per month - tailing off to around 1,000 per month during the summer. Today's rise of 300 - the smallest increase since the start of the recession - is an indication that the recession could be bottoming out, although we are not at all complacent and will continue to fight for every job and to maintain the skills of our workforce."


And the Conservative’s continue to criticize without offering any alternatives.

Shadow economy minister David Melding said: "These figures demonstrate that the short-termism of the Assembly Government’s approach has failed to reverse this damaging rise in unemployment.

"We need answers as to why, despite a small fall in unemployment over the summer, we are witnessing a surge in job losses in Wales far greater than other parts of the United Kingdom."


And as far as I can tell we have had no word from the Welsh Liberal Democrats. UPDATE Lib Dems comments are available following the link http://bit.ly/TGkyH

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Stirring the Welsh History Pot

Hywel Williams has produced a new look at Welsh History for S4C and gets beyond the usual clichés of Welsh Socialism and Nationalism. It’s meant to be provocative no doubt and will certainly challenge the settled nature of Welsh History that politicians, historians and academics speak of.

Explaining the idea he wrote in the Western Mail What really happened to the Welsh in the late 20th century? Our official history is dominated by two big ideas, socialism and nationalism.

Socialist assumptions welcome public sector expansion while nationalist ones delineate a steady devolutionary advance.

The NHS became Wales’ biggest employer and the Tudors’ legislative union with England was undermined. What were the three most important dates in modern Welsh history? Our establishment historians reply: “1536, 1945 and, er – that’s it.”
That answer turns Welsh history into a very boring subject.

Some things, of course, can be both boring and true, and any country’s history contains dull events. But too much of Wales’ history is written by people who’ve decided to leave in all the really boring bits and therefore miss out the big picture.

General elections and referendums grab the headlines for a while, but all those swings and polls are soon forgotten. Rightly so because they’re superficial – mere reflections of deeper currents in economic life, cultural change and social development. And those forces can’t be confined to one country’s history.

Placing Wales’ past in a wider context usually means placing it side by side with that of England. This seems to me trite, misleading and parochial. What we need is an international view of our country – not an introspective one.

In Cymru Hywel Williams, I’ve looked at the six themes which have shaped the contemporary world: nationality and personal identity; religious belief and Christianity’s decline, the global economy and free markets; things green and the environment; popular culture and entertainment and the history of the body – both obese and honed.


The programme is available to watch on S4C catchup and to get English subtitles click on the owl button on the screen.

Cities across Europe celebrate the fall of the Berlin Wall

As well as the celebrations and events in Berlin to mark the 20th Anniversary of the Berlin Wall coming down, cities across Europe commissioned exhibits and held events to celebrate the unification of Germany, in London outside the German Embassy there was an Ice Wall built under the title 'Work in Progress' which slowly melted through the day - make of it what you will.

The slide show from the Germany Embassy on the exhibit is here

Sunday, November 8, 2009

A Tale of Two Cities: Why is Economic Development so difficult in Wales?

That is the title of two articles from Denis Campbell of UK Progressive on ways that Economic Development in Wales could be improved, and how it needs to be taken out of the hands of politicians and the whole mindset that needs to change if Wales is to be successful.

In the rather stale debate around job creation, business growth and economic development in Wales over the past few years it’s a welcome addition and well worth a read.