With a line in David Cameron’s speech to his Welsh Party conference in Llandudno that included ‘whatever happens here in Wales we want better co-operation between Cardiff and Westminster’ and a small drop in the latest YouGov/ITV Wales poll this week, you get the feeling the Tories have this weekend started managing Welsh expectations downward.
Gone is the talk of a rugby team of Tory MP’s or double figures emphasised by Cheryl Gillan’ comments to Nick Bourne about his over confident statements a few months back of at least double figures of MP’s’, at the pre conference press conference according to BBC Wales Editor Betsan Powys, Cheryl has never put a figure on how many seats the Conservative would win although at the same press conference she did talk about the referendum as an ‘some obscure constitutional matter’ not really helpful for a Party trying to sell itself as Devolution friendly or the possible next Welsh Secretary.
They aren’t quite in wobbly jelly territory yet, Labour still have big problems, but the Tories seem considerably more anxious and less sure footed than when they gathered in Cardiff last year. Maybe it’s the narrowing of the polls or David Cameron mess ups because his speech failed to lift the conference, he delivered some good lines and jokes but it was heavy on technical details of waste saving in Government the sort of thing that makes most of us glaze over, but will according to him help bring the UK's budget deficit down.
The Tories will put the gloss on ‘the best conference ever’ like every party do and they remain on course for more Welsh MP’s, but are we any clearer what a Conservative Government will mean for Wales, from today’s efforts the answer for me at least is no.
Saturday, March 6, 2010
Friday, March 5, 2010
Interesting Figures and Findings
You wait ages for opinion polls on Welsh politics and this week we’ve had two, I almost can’t cope. There’s also some interesting findings in a Hansard Parliamentary report and a UK poll for Channel 4 in the marginals across the UK to report on.
First to that Hansard Report on MP’s and Parliament that says 40% of us in Wales think Welsh Assembly is more important than the UK Parliament and 16% that think Westminster is more important than the Welsh Assembly and 18% of us think out MP’s are doing a good job compares to around 30% in England and Scotland, are we Welsh more cynical or simply better judges of character?
On to the second opinion poll of the week, the latest ITV Wales Tracker poll on General Election voting intentions shows Labour up 3 to 37, the Tories down 3 to 29, the Lib Dems down 1 to 12, and Plaid up 1 to 14 according to the experts that means the Conservatives would pick up 6 seats in Wales leaving Lab on 24, Cons 9, Lib Dems 3, Plaid 3 and 1 Independent. This poll seems to chime with Labour's new found confidence after last weekends conference in Swansea.
The poll also asked about who would make the best leader, Gordon Brown and David Cameron were both on 28%, Ieuan Wyn Jones was at 13%, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg was on 11% with 21% unable to make a decision on any of the leaders. Some good news for Plaid Cymru’s leader not so for the Lib Dems.
On the referendum question on law making powers, the ITV Wales poll found that 53% of people said Yes and 31% who would vote NO, this poll like the BBC Wales one at the start of the week showed an increase in support for full law making powers.
Finally there is an interesting UK poll carried out by YouGov/Channel 4 yesterday in the marginals and showed a gap of just 2% with the Con 39% (-3) Lab 37 (+1) LD 14 (+1) it means the Conservatives would be short of an overall majority to form a Government, so a hung parliament at the moment is odds on.
More in Depth analysis from The Druid and Welsh Ramblings
First to that Hansard Report on MP’s and Parliament that says 40% of us in Wales think Welsh Assembly is more important than the UK Parliament and 16% that think Westminster is more important than the Welsh Assembly and 18% of us think out MP’s are doing a good job compares to around 30% in England and Scotland, are we Welsh more cynical or simply better judges of character?
On to the second opinion poll of the week, the latest ITV Wales Tracker poll on General Election voting intentions shows Labour up 3 to 37, the Tories down 3 to 29, the Lib Dems down 1 to 12, and Plaid up 1 to 14 according to the experts that means the Conservatives would pick up 6 seats in Wales leaving Lab on 24, Cons 9, Lib Dems 3, Plaid 3 and 1 Independent. This poll seems to chime with Labour's new found confidence after last weekends conference in Swansea.
The poll also asked about who would make the best leader, Gordon Brown and David Cameron were both on 28%, Ieuan Wyn Jones was at 13%, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg was on 11% with 21% unable to make a decision on any of the leaders. Some good news for Plaid Cymru’s leader not so for the Lib Dems.
On the referendum question on law making powers, the ITV Wales poll found that 53% of people said Yes and 31% who would vote NO, this poll like the BBC Wales one at the start of the week showed an increase in support for full law making powers.
Finally there is an interesting UK poll carried out by YouGov/Channel 4 yesterday in the marginals and showed a gap of just 2% with the Con 39% (-3) Lab 37 (+1) LD 14 (+1) it means the Conservatives would be short of an overall majority to form a Government, so a hung parliament at the moment is odds on.
More in Depth analysis from The Druid and Welsh Ramblings
Thursday, March 4, 2010
SNP start talks with Plaid Cymru and Northern Ireland Parties over Hung Parliament
Speculation of a hung Parliament reached fever pitch last week after the Conservatives were only 2% ahead in the latest Sunday Times Opinion poll (although the gap is back to around 5- 6 points) so it’s no real surprise that talks between the Scottish and Welsh Nationalists are underway to draw up a list of demands for support any minority Government whether Conservative or Labour.
Both Unionist and Nationalists parties in Northern Ireland have been contacted by the SNP to start negotiations and it may not seem as strange as it sounds, Alex Salmond got on well the Ian Paisley and current DUP First Minister Peter Robinson.
I still reckon that it will be Lib Dems who the big two parties will turn to first in such circumstances for the simple that reason electoral reform is more palatable than an independence referendum, but if the Tories or Labour only need a handful of votes then the smaller parties will come into their own.
According to the new online Scottish newspaper the Caledonian Mercury this is what demands are being discussed (for Plaid Cymru read Wales for Scotland in the following)
Securing millions in extra funding in areas which the parties should be covered by the Barnett Formula, but which are not, likely spending increases as a result of the London Olympics and money for English prisons.
No major cuts to the block grants for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Transferring new powers to Holyrood over airguns, drink-driving and speeding limits, areas which could be devolved without any major revisions to the Scotland Act.
A commitment to enhanced powers for the Scottish Parliament in the next Westminster parliamentary session.
The prospect of smaller parties pressurising the government of the day into concessions would not be new to Westminster but an organised Celtic block, including the Northern Irish nationalists and unionists, would be.
Both Unionist and Nationalists parties in Northern Ireland have been contacted by the SNP to start negotiations and it may not seem as strange as it sounds, Alex Salmond got on well the Ian Paisley and current DUP First Minister Peter Robinson.
I still reckon that it will be Lib Dems who the big two parties will turn to first in such circumstances for the simple that reason electoral reform is more palatable than an independence referendum, but if the Tories or Labour only need a handful of votes then the smaller parties will come into their own.
According to the new online Scottish newspaper the Caledonian Mercury this is what demands are being discussed (for Plaid Cymru read Wales for Scotland in the following)
Securing millions in extra funding in areas which the parties should be covered by the Barnett Formula, but which are not, likely spending increases as a result of the London Olympics and money for English prisons.
No major cuts to the block grants for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Transferring new powers to Holyrood over airguns, drink-driving and speeding limits, areas which could be devolved without any major revisions to the Scotland Act.
A commitment to enhanced powers for the Scottish Parliament in the next Westminster parliamentary session.
The prospect of smaller parties pressurising the government of the day into concessions would not be new to Westminster but an organised Celtic block, including the Northern Irish nationalists and unionists, would be.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
‘Barnett replacement’ working paper is sent to Tories
Other bloggers have written about George Osborne comments on the Barnett Formula when he was on a visit to Cardiff last month saying if he were Chancellor after the General Election he would establish an Independent Commission to consider needs based formula which would certainly benefit Wales.
On the surface it sounds like good news. except that there’s already an Independent Commission in existence set up to look at the way Wales is funded through the Barnett Formula’s and to make recommendations about what could replace it called the Holtham Commission and it reported the first part of its findings to the Welsh Assembly Government last summer.
However according to the Western Mail ‘Aberdare-born Mr Holtham has sent his commission’s working paper to the MP after reading an interview in the Western Mail with Mr Osborne, who was on a visit to Cardiff earlier this month.
Their needs-based working paper concluded that Wales would gain around £400m from a new model that took into account factors such as deprivation and the cost of delivering public services.
In Scotland Barnett is more generous than in Wales, with a £120 per head ratio settlement to the English average of £100, while in Northern Ireland it is £124.
The commission’s working paper – Replacing Barnett With a Needs-based Formula – concluded Scotland should in fact only receive £105 per head. If implemented this would result in its current annual budget of £28bn being cut by £3bn.
The secretariat of the (Holtham) commission said yesterday: “We confirm Gerry Holtham has sent a copy of the needs paper to the Shadow Chancellor. As yet, we have received no reply.”
So much for the Conservatives being comfortable with Welsh Devolution and keeping up to date with developments, it makes you wonder if Nick Bourne or anyone in his Assembly Group sent a copy of the report to the Shadow Chancellor and if they did why George Osborne chose to ignore it?
On the surface it sounds like good news. except that there’s already an Independent Commission in existence set up to look at the way Wales is funded through the Barnett Formula’s and to make recommendations about what could replace it called the Holtham Commission and it reported the first part of its findings to the Welsh Assembly Government last summer.
However according to the Western Mail ‘Aberdare-born Mr Holtham has sent his commission’s working paper to the MP after reading an interview in the Western Mail with Mr Osborne, who was on a visit to Cardiff earlier this month.
Their needs-based working paper concluded that Wales would gain around £400m from a new model that took into account factors such as deprivation and the cost of delivering public services.
In Scotland Barnett is more generous than in Wales, with a £120 per head ratio settlement to the English average of £100, while in Northern Ireland it is £124.
The commission’s working paper – Replacing Barnett With a Needs-based Formula – concluded Scotland should in fact only receive £105 per head. If implemented this would result in its current annual budget of £28bn being cut by £3bn.
The secretariat of the (Holtham) commission said yesterday: “We confirm Gerry Holtham has sent a copy of the needs paper to the Shadow Chancellor. As yet, we have received no reply.”
So much for the Conservatives being comfortable with Welsh Devolution and keeping up to date with developments, it makes you wonder if Nick Bourne or anyone in his Assembly Group sent a copy of the report to the Shadow Chancellor and if they did why George Osborne chose to ignore it?
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
BBC Wales’s poll highlights lack of leadership
You can’t blame BBC Wales for going big on the St David’s Day poll today ahead of the Labour farce in Islwyn, they only get one a year or for the rest of the media and us bloggers to comment on the findings, but what strikes me from the poll result is the striking lack of leadership it highlights.
Take the subject of the referendum on full law making powers 56% would vote yes and up 4% in a year; however with a Yes Campaign underway and some Political leadership does anyone believe that the figure wouldn't be significantly higher even at this stage in the campaign especially with the distortions that are coming from the No campaign.
On the subject of the economy its comical that 47% of people think that Gordon Brown and Carwyn Jones were best placed to steer Wales to a strong economic recovery as Wales has been going backwards in economic terms under their leadership even before the recession started, but more than that it also highlights the failure of Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and Lib Dems to sell us the voting public an alternative narrative on the Welsh economy that we can buy into, it’s something I have written about previously.
We then have the issue about who would make the best Welsh First Minister and the numbers are troubling especially as all four Welsh political party leaders have been in the National Assembly for Wales in one role or another since the National Assembly was set up over 10 years ago and still over a quarter of the population don’t know enough about them to pass judgment on their ability to be First Minister of Wales.
Sadly I can’t see the situation on these matters improving anytime soon.
Take the subject of the referendum on full law making powers 56% would vote yes and up 4% in a year; however with a Yes Campaign underway and some Political leadership does anyone believe that the figure wouldn't be significantly higher even at this stage in the campaign especially with the distortions that are coming from the No campaign.
On the subject of the economy its comical that 47% of people think that Gordon Brown and Carwyn Jones were best placed to steer Wales to a strong economic recovery as Wales has been going backwards in economic terms under their leadership even before the recession started, but more than that it also highlights the failure of Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and Lib Dems to sell us the voting public an alternative narrative on the Welsh economy that we can buy into, it’s something I have written about previously.
We then have the issue about who would make the best Welsh First Minister and the numbers are troubling especially as all four Welsh political party leaders have been in the National Assembly for Wales in one role or another since the National Assembly was set up over 10 years ago and still over a quarter of the population don’t know enough about them to pass judgment on their ability to be First Minister of Wales.
Sadly I can’t see the situation on these matters improving anytime soon.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Dydd Gwŷl Dewi Sant hapus/Happy St David’s Day
Welsh Politics debate continues tomorrow, today enjoy your Welsh cakes and Brains beer and wear your Daffodils and Leeks with pride.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Polls and the Economy
There’s been lots of discussion about the narrowing opinion polls and what it all means especially in light of today’s YouGov poll putting the Conservatives only 2% ahead of Labour, not that long ago they had double digit leads and were on course for landslide, so maybe the General Election is not be a foregone conclusion after all.
And while opinion polls go up and down and there always another one due that could have better news, the one thing apart from the shrinking lead that would concern me if I were David Cameron would be that Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling are still more trusted on the economy than him and George Osborne given all the problems the UK faces.
It's well known that the Tories austeriy message is going down like a lead ballon with voters maybe that's to blame or maybe its the lack of credibility that George Osbourne still has with many in the City despite his speech this week.
Its summed up well in the Sunday Times Editorial ‘The most worrying aspect for the Tory leader and for George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, is that amidst the deepest recession since the Great Depression, and with the government borrowing an eighth of Britain’s national income this year, Labour is trusted more than the Tories to run the economy. Either Mr Brown’s propaganda has worked and voters genuinely believe that he saved the world from something much worse, or the Tories have simply sown too much confusion about what they would do in office. Voters, like the money markets, hate uncertainty.
And while opinion polls go up and down and there always another one due that could have better news, the one thing apart from the shrinking lead that would concern me if I were David Cameron would be that Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling are still more trusted on the economy than him and George Osborne given all the problems the UK faces.
It's well known that the Tories austeriy message is going down like a lead ballon with voters maybe that's to blame or maybe its the lack of credibility that George Osbourne still has with many in the City despite his speech this week.
Its summed up well in the Sunday Times Editorial ‘The most worrying aspect for the Tory leader and for George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, is that amidst the deepest recession since the Great Depression, and with the government borrowing an eighth of Britain’s national income this year, Labour is trusted more than the Tories to run the economy. Either Mr Brown’s propaganda has worked and voters genuinely believe that he saved the world from something much worse, or the Tories have simply sown too much confusion about what they would do in office. Voters, like the money markets, hate uncertainty.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)