As the negotiations between the Tories and Lib Dems continue it was good to see the campaigners from all parties and none outside the Lib Dems talks earlier today keeping the issue if voting reform at Westminster on the agenda.
They handed a petition to Nick Clegg that had 20,000 signatures in 24 hours and still counting, it can be signed at Taking Back Parliament and it calls for ‘fair votes now’ - I already have.
On the political front how ironic that Lib Dem Alex Carlisle the man who had a hand in scuppering the Rainbow Coalition between The Tories, Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru after the 2007 Welsh Assembly election is now making positive noises about a Conservative Lib Dem deal at Westminster.
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Friday, May 7, 2010
As clear as mud
I have been busy of late so I didn’t stay up last night, but well done to those who did, it seems things are about as clear today as they have been for the last 4 weeks – not very.
The Conservatives did well in England, they won 5 extra seats in Wales and stood still in Scotland with only 1 MP, can they govern with less than 326 seats as a minority or will David Cameron do some deals?
The Labour Party in the UK had a bad night across England, but remains Wales’s largest political force although down on seats and vote share, could they still be in Government if a deal can be done with the Lib Dems and can Gordon Brown really stay on as PM?
The same Lib Dems who got squeezed badly while Lembit Opik lost his seat, but they did hang on to the Ceredigion and got significant swings in Wrexham, Pontypridd and Merthyr which could be possible targets for the Assembly Elections next year.
Plaid Cymru also got squeezed but unlike the SNP didn’t lose any seats and its not all bad news ahead of the Assembly elections, but they will have to run a better campaign for sure and i still think they missed Adam Price.
Well done to former Assembly Member Glyn Davies winning in Montgomeryshire against Lembit Opik – i wonder with a different Liberal Democrat MP would they have held the seat?
The other thing is who replaces new Vale of Glamorgan MP Alun Cairns as an Assembly Member for the Tories in Cardiff Bay, Alun's success also means a reshuffle for Nick Bourne and we all know what happened last time there was a Welsh Tory reshuffle.
And finally well done to both Lib Dem Amy Kitcher in Merthyr who achieved a 17% swing against Dai Havard and to Conservative Angela Jones Evans in Cardiff West for ruffling a few feathers in Rhodri Morgan’s backyard against Kevin Brennan although they didn’t win the seats.
The Conservatives did well in England, they won 5 extra seats in Wales and stood still in Scotland with only 1 MP, can they govern with less than 326 seats as a minority or will David Cameron do some deals?
The Labour Party in the UK had a bad night across England, but remains Wales’s largest political force although down on seats and vote share, could they still be in Government if a deal can be done with the Lib Dems and can Gordon Brown really stay on as PM?
The same Lib Dems who got squeezed badly while Lembit Opik lost his seat, but they did hang on to the Ceredigion and got significant swings in Wrexham, Pontypridd and Merthyr which could be possible targets for the Assembly Elections next year.
Plaid Cymru also got squeezed but unlike the SNP didn’t lose any seats and its not all bad news ahead of the Assembly elections, but they will have to run a better campaign for sure and i still think they missed Adam Price.
Well done to former Assembly Member Glyn Davies winning in Montgomeryshire against Lembit Opik – i wonder with a different Liberal Democrat MP would they have held the seat?
The other thing is who replaces new Vale of Glamorgan MP Alun Cairns as an Assembly Member for the Tories in Cardiff Bay, Alun's success also means a reshuffle for Nick Bourne and we all know what happened last time there was a Welsh Tory reshuffle.
And finally well done to both Lib Dem Amy Kitcher in Merthyr who achieved a 17% swing against Dai Havard and to Conservative Angela Jones Evans in Cardiff West for ruffling a few feathers in Rhodri Morgan’s backyard against Kevin Brennan although they didn’t win the seats.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
‘Assembly needs the politics of personality’
Martin Johnes over at the Institute of Welsh Affairs website wrote a great piece about the need to inject some personality into Welsh devolved politics and spelt out a few home truths at the same time.
This is the article in full ‘As a committed believer in devolution, it pains me a little to say it but this election is proving to be far more interesting than Assembly politics. It’s not that there seems to be more at stake. I still believe that who’s in power in Cardiff Bay matters more to Wales than who’s in office at Westminster. Whichever party or combination of parties wins is going to have to make massive cuts and raise taxes, but the impact of that depends on the Welsh Government. It’s just that this election is more engaging than any contest we’ve ever had for the Assembly.
Part of that is down to the television debates. The media would do well to remember that only a minority of the population have watched them but it is hard to deny that they have enlivened things for those who are even only a little interested in politics. A full leaders’ debate for the next Assembly election is essential if turnout is to come anywhere close to the numbers who vote in Wales at UK elections.
Apathy is probably the biggest threat to devolved democracy and a proper televised debate is the only way to make people take more notice of Welsh politics. For that to work the Welsh media must avoid banishing its coverage of the next Assembly election to the late hours roamed by Dragon’s Eye. If finding room in the primetime schedules is good enough for Westminster, it has to be for Cardiff Bay too.
The other reason why the campaign and the debates have been interesting has been personality. The three main UK party leaders are very different people and that makes it interesting. Coverage given to their wives has enhanced that personal dimension and told us something about the kind of men David, Gordon and Nick are.
Aloof purists might complain that wives have nothing to do with policy but the electorate is deeply interested in personality. Given that the policy differences between the parties are not ideological gulfs, then much of the electorate is making a choice based on the assumption that the man who seems most honest and decent will probably make the right decisions. The electorate might not be quite sure what those decisions are or should be but knowing the man making them gives people some faith. And democracy desperately needs the electorate to have faith in its politicians again.
At Cardiff Bay, where, despite what AMs may say, the policy differences between parties are even smaller than at Westminster, the politics of personality are desperately needed. Rhodri worked as First Minister because he was a personality. You knew what kind of person he was – a little eccentric, but committed, honest and proud of being Welsh.
The electorate just don’t know enough about Carwyn, Ieuan, Kirsty and Nick. They certainly don’t know enough about their respective partners – in the case of Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams (pictured) her farmer husband. We need to hear about their lives, families, interests and tastes. That isn’t shallow. It’s about making connections with people and banishing cynicism. Real democracy needs the electorate to know more than the policies of the political parties’ policies. It also needs the electorate to know their representatives are real people.’
This is the article in full ‘As a committed believer in devolution, it pains me a little to say it but this election is proving to be far more interesting than Assembly politics. It’s not that there seems to be more at stake. I still believe that who’s in power in Cardiff Bay matters more to Wales than who’s in office at Westminster. Whichever party or combination of parties wins is going to have to make massive cuts and raise taxes, but the impact of that depends on the Welsh Government. It’s just that this election is more engaging than any contest we’ve ever had for the Assembly.
Part of that is down to the television debates. The media would do well to remember that only a minority of the population have watched them but it is hard to deny that they have enlivened things for those who are even only a little interested in politics. A full leaders’ debate for the next Assembly election is essential if turnout is to come anywhere close to the numbers who vote in Wales at UK elections.
Apathy is probably the biggest threat to devolved democracy and a proper televised debate is the only way to make people take more notice of Welsh politics. For that to work the Welsh media must avoid banishing its coverage of the next Assembly election to the late hours roamed by Dragon’s Eye. If finding room in the primetime schedules is good enough for Westminster, it has to be for Cardiff Bay too.
The other reason why the campaign and the debates have been interesting has been personality. The three main UK party leaders are very different people and that makes it interesting. Coverage given to their wives has enhanced that personal dimension and told us something about the kind of men David, Gordon and Nick are.
Aloof purists might complain that wives have nothing to do with policy but the electorate is deeply interested in personality. Given that the policy differences between the parties are not ideological gulfs, then much of the electorate is making a choice based on the assumption that the man who seems most honest and decent will probably make the right decisions. The electorate might not be quite sure what those decisions are or should be but knowing the man making them gives people some faith. And democracy desperately needs the electorate to have faith in its politicians again.
At Cardiff Bay, where, despite what AMs may say, the policy differences between parties are even smaller than at Westminster, the politics of personality are desperately needed. Rhodri worked as First Minister because he was a personality. You knew what kind of person he was – a little eccentric, but committed, honest and proud of being Welsh.
The electorate just don’t know enough about Carwyn, Ieuan, Kirsty and Nick. They certainly don’t know enough about their respective partners – in the case of Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams (pictured) her farmer husband. We need to hear about their lives, families, interests and tastes. That isn’t shallow. It’s about making connections with people and banishing cynicism. Real democracy needs the electorate to know more than the policies of the political parties’ policies. It also needs the electorate to know their representatives are real people.’
Monday, May 3, 2010
Cheryl and Dave up North and Nick on his own in Pontardawe
If you needed a clearer picture of the tensions in the Conservative Party in Wales then yesterday was it.
Tory Leader David Cameron was campaigning in North Wales with his Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan to get more Tory MP’s in and telling people what an asset she has been (plenty of people would beg to differ) the two of them together on a visit was in sharp contrast to Tory Assembly Nick Bourne who has had a low profile in the campaign so far until he appeared on BBC Wales Leader debate last night.
The question of what a Tory Welsh Secretary’ Wales proofing’ every UK policy and empire building at the Wales Office would mean for Wales and it relationship with the Assembly hasn’t really be addressed by the Welsh press or the other parties.
Didn’t anyone think to ask about the 10% cut in MP’s and how it might affect Wales or where the jobs are going to come from after Local Authorities, the NHS, DVLA and the rest of Wales large public sector face the massive job losses that are coming our way, during David and Cheryl’s visit to North Wales yesterday, it seems not.
And It would be easier to feel sympathy for Nick, who has tried to detoxify the Conservative brand in Wales if he hadn’t rolled over and let David Cameron and Cheryl Gillan set the Campaign agenda neither of whom really understand Wales or Welsh politics. He may have retrieved some credibility by appearing in the debate last night and excluding Cheryl Gillan who has been dire and reinforced every bad Tory cliché to the Welsh electorate over the last few weeks because her exclusion made Welsh Secretary Peter Hain look even more manic, self parodying and out of touch than usual.
So while the UK leaders debate have sucked most of the oxygen out of what has been an unpredictable campaign and lots of questions haven’t been asked never mind answered, we will know soon enough what a minority Conservative Government means for Wales in the weeks and months ahead.
Tory Leader David Cameron was campaigning in North Wales with his Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan to get more Tory MP’s in and telling people what an asset she has been (plenty of people would beg to differ) the two of them together on a visit was in sharp contrast to Tory Assembly Nick Bourne who has had a low profile in the campaign so far until he appeared on BBC Wales Leader debate last night.
The question of what a Tory Welsh Secretary’ Wales proofing’ every UK policy and empire building at the Wales Office would mean for Wales and it relationship with the Assembly hasn’t really be addressed by the Welsh press or the other parties.
Didn’t anyone think to ask about the 10% cut in MP’s and how it might affect Wales or where the jobs are going to come from after Local Authorities, the NHS, DVLA and the rest of Wales large public sector face the massive job losses that are coming our way, during David and Cheryl’s visit to North Wales yesterday, it seems not.
And It would be easier to feel sympathy for Nick, who has tried to detoxify the Conservative brand in Wales if he hadn’t rolled over and let David Cameron and Cheryl Gillan set the Campaign agenda neither of whom really understand Wales or Welsh politics. He may have retrieved some credibility by appearing in the debate last night and excluding Cheryl Gillan who has been dire and reinforced every bad Tory cliché to the Welsh electorate over the last few weeks because her exclusion made Welsh Secretary Peter Hain look even more manic, self parodying and out of touch than usual.
So while the UK leaders debate have sucked most of the oxygen out of what has been an unpredictable campaign and lots of questions haven’t been asked never mind answered, we will know soon enough what a minority Conservative Government means for Wales in the weeks and months ahead.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
The unintended consequences of a Hung Parliament that could change the UK forever
Among the speculation about who the Lib Dems will or won’t cuddle up with after the Election if we end up with a Parliament with no overall majority after the General Election next week, there is another issue that could arise out of the Coalitions on offer that could lead to a full blown constitutional crisis and calls for an English Parliament, an issue that has been bubbling away since we in Wales and Scotland voted for a Parliament and Assembly back in 1998, but like the West Lothian Question has largely been ignored and dimmssed by the mainstream media and politicians.
The reason according to Guy Lodge writing on the Our Kingdom website is to do with which parts of the UK the Coalition would represent, a minority Tory Government would have most support in England where as a Labour and Liberal Democrat Coalition would have most support in Scotland and Wales.
He writes ‘But what no one seems to have spotted – this is the second part of the argument - is that because of the polarizing territorial power bases of the main parties, crudely Tory England versus a Labour Celtic fringe, both a Tory minority government and a Lib-Lab alliance would open up an unpredictable and potentially destabilizing territorial dimension in British politics. The polls may be volatile, creating wide-spread uncertainty, but one thing they have consistently predicted, had anyone bothered to look, is that the Tories will win a majority of English seats. This means that a Tory minority government could be held to ransom by MPs from outside of England. More problematically, a Lib-Lab alliance would lack a majority in England meaning it would have to use its non-English MPs to govern England.
A Tory minority government won’t be a minority government in England. Most recent polls suggest that the Tories will get around 290 seats, almost all of which will be won in England. This would give them a working majority within England, but they would be 30-40 odd short of an overall UK majority (they will still be short even if you include the electoral pact they’ve signed with the Ulster Unionists and any hypothetical deals with the nationalist parties).
This fact radically changes the dynamics of minority government politics. The Tories can expect to haggle with the other parties to get UK-wide policy through the Commons but what happens if the other parties use their non-English MPs to veto policy that only applies in England? Labour and the Lib Dems could use their non-English MPs to block Tory policies they oppose such as elected police commissioners or their proposals to allow parents to set up their own schools, even though they would only apply in England, where the Tories would control a majority of the seats.
The Tories would be up-in-arms and left as frustrated as Harold Wilson was during his 1964-66 government, which had a majority of just four seats, and which was endlessly sabotaged by the action of MPs from Ulster who ganged up with the Conservatives to stall his plans for steel nationalisation, even though the policy did not apply in Northern Ireland.
The reason according to Guy Lodge writing on the Our Kingdom website is to do with which parts of the UK the Coalition would represent, a minority Tory Government would have most support in England where as a Labour and Liberal Democrat Coalition would have most support in Scotland and Wales.
He writes ‘But what no one seems to have spotted – this is the second part of the argument - is that because of the polarizing territorial power bases of the main parties, crudely Tory England versus a Labour Celtic fringe, both a Tory minority government and a Lib-Lab alliance would open up an unpredictable and potentially destabilizing territorial dimension in British politics. The polls may be volatile, creating wide-spread uncertainty, but one thing they have consistently predicted, had anyone bothered to look, is that the Tories will win a majority of English seats. This means that a Tory minority government could be held to ransom by MPs from outside of England. More problematically, a Lib-Lab alliance would lack a majority in England meaning it would have to use its non-English MPs to govern England.
A Tory minority government won’t be a minority government in England. Most recent polls suggest that the Tories will get around 290 seats, almost all of which will be won in England. This would give them a working majority within England, but they would be 30-40 odd short of an overall UK majority (they will still be short even if you include the electoral pact they’ve signed with the Ulster Unionists and any hypothetical deals with the nationalist parties).
This fact radically changes the dynamics of minority government politics. The Tories can expect to haggle with the other parties to get UK-wide policy through the Commons but what happens if the other parties use their non-English MPs to veto policy that only applies in England? Labour and the Lib Dems could use their non-English MPs to block Tory policies they oppose such as elected police commissioners or their proposals to allow parents to set up their own schools, even though they would only apply in England, where the Tories would control a majority of the seats.
The Tories would be up-in-arms and left as frustrated as Harold Wilson was during his 1964-66 government, which had a majority of just four seats, and which was endlessly sabotaged by the action of MPs from Ulster who ganged up with the Conservatives to stall his plans for steel nationalisation, even though the policy did not apply in Northern Ireland.
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