Whether its intentional or not the Coalition Government has dealt differently with Wales and Scotland, part of the reason could be the lack of mandate in Scotland and the Scottish Government who have played a blinder so far, while WAG appear flat footed and caught in Government's headlights.
From a Scottish perspective there is plenty on offer, as proposals from the Calman Commission will be included in the Queen’s speech next week as reported by the Times ‘The UK Government will pledge to bring forward legislation to implement the recommendations of the Calman Commission when it unveils its first Queen’s Speech next week, The Times has learnt.
However, it is thought highly unlikely that Lib-Con ministers will lay down a specific timetable for the planned implementation, thereby opening themselves up to accusations from Labour that they have retreated from commitments made by the previous Government.
Labour, while in office, had said that it was ready to bring forward a Bill to implement Calman, including the extension of tax powers, which would be through all its Parliamentary stages before the next Holyrood elections in May next year.'
And today we learn from BBC Scotland that ‘A commitment to examine the fossil fuel levy has been included in the deal struck between the Tories and Lib Dems.
This is something the SNP government at Holyrood wanted the previous Labour government at Westminster to do.
Scottish Finance Secretary John Swinney said the cash would help the country tap into its offshore power potential.
The news came as details of the coalition agreement were announced by the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition government.
Now compare that with the tepid words in the Coalition agreement on Welsh matters from the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats
"We recognise the concerns expressed by the Holtham Commission on the system of devolution funding. However, at this time, the priority must be to reduce the deficit and therefore any change to the system must await the stabilisation of the public finances".
So there will be no mention of Holtham in the Queen’s speech which means the Barnett Formula stays until 2015 at least, the referendum for more powers is now the subject of a slanging match between WAG and the Welsh Office that’s hardly helping as a precursor to any campaign and we will have UK and Welsh Assembly Elections on the same day in 2015 – is this really new politics or back to the future.
I’m sure the Liberal Democrats in particular and the Tories will try and spin this as a good deal for Wales and try to come up with a reason why Wales will miss out on funds and why the referendum will probably be lost, but it’s just a reminder that the more things change the more they stay the same, most depressing of all this will drive people back to Labour in droves and no doubt they will see it as vindication of their top dog status in Welsh politics after a tough few years.
UPDATE It seems John Osmond at the Institute of Welsh affairs agrees.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Welfare Reform – listen to the people at the sharp end
I have recently finished some research on unemployment in Wales and have been talking to those in receipt of benefits and those working in the Jobcentres.
For obvious reasons I can’t go into the full details but here are some of the things I can share :-
In an area of high and long term unemployment in the South Wales Valleys the local Jobcentre is currently dealing with four times as many claimants than they have capacity to deal with. As a result the managers had to change the signing on times which are a maximum of 4 mins; needless to say it’s leading to a sense of cattle herding as plenty of claimants pointed out to me.
In an area of North Wales where Youth unemployment is a real problem the local Jobcentre has had major success with a UK scheme to get youngsters back into work, but now the scheme is being stopped and there is no money available for the foreseeable future unless is taken away from another group of the unemployed.
Another Jobcentre in an area of average unemployment is due to close leaving staff out of work and claimants with a 40 mile round trip to sign on every fortnight, it’s ok if you have your own transport but one man told me the trip by bus to the alternative Jobcentre due to the infrequency of the buses would take him the best part of 4.5 hours.
These are just a few issues that I came across, but they all fitted into an overarching theme of a lack of confidence in those setting the rules - the politicians. Few believe any politicians actually understand welfare issues or believe they would listen to the advisors or claimants about how to get a more efficient system for all sides.
The anger wasn’t just confined to the new Conservatives/ Liberal Democrat Government new welfare proposals , many were as dismissive of the previous Labour Government when more Jobcentres were closed of merged with Social Security offices often in areas of high and long term unemployment in Wales and across the UK. It didn’t in the end save money as many of those Jobcentre’s had to be reopened with the big rise in unemployment that is continuing as a result of the recession.
The Department of Work and Pension responsible for Welfare has the biggest UK Government budget and will certainly be targeted to help reduce the deficit, but I wonder how many politicians and senior civil servants would be prepared to listen to those in receipt of benefit or those on the front line dealing with unemployment who know what works and what doesn’t, rather than ploughing ahead with their own ideas, by listening the UK might get a welfare system that is a safety net for those that need it as well as giving a helping hand to those who can get back to work.
For obvious reasons I can’t go into the full details but here are some of the things I can share :-
In an area of high and long term unemployment in the South Wales Valleys the local Jobcentre is currently dealing with four times as many claimants than they have capacity to deal with. As a result the managers had to change the signing on times which are a maximum of 4 mins; needless to say it’s leading to a sense of cattle herding as plenty of claimants pointed out to me.
In an area of North Wales where Youth unemployment is a real problem the local Jobcentre has had major success with a UK scheme to get youngsters back into work, but now the scheme is being stopped and there is no money available for the foreseeable future unless is taken away from another group of the unemployed.
Another Jobcentre in an area of average unemployment is due to close leaving staff out of work and claimants with a 40 mile round trip to sign on every fortnight, it’s ok if you have your own transport but one man told me the trip by bus to the alternative Jobcentre due to the infrequency of the buses would take him the best part of 4.5 hours.
These are just a few issues that I came across, but they all fitted into an overarching theme of a lack of confidence in those setting the rules - the politicians. Few believe any politicians actually understand welfare issues or believe they would listen to the advisors or claimants about how to get a more efficient system for all sides.
The anger wasn’t just confined to the new Conservatives/ Liberal Democrat Government new welfare proposals , many were as dismissive of the previous Labour Government when more Jobcentres were closed of merged with Social Security offices often in areas of high and long term unemployment in Wales and across the UK. It didn’t in the end save money as many of those Jobcentre’s had to be reopened with the big rise in unemployment that is continuing as a result of the recession.
The Department of Work and Pension responsible for Welfare has the biggest UK Government budget and will certainly be targeted to help reduce the deficit, but I wonder how many politicians and senior civil servants would be prepared to listen to those in receipt of benefit or those on the front line dealing with unemployment who know what works and what doesn’t, rather than ploughing ahead with their own ideas, by listening the UK might get a welfare system that is a safety net for those that need it as well as giving a helping hand to those who can get back to work.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Deferring cuts is a political offer not an economic one, so what will WAG do?
I remain critical of the Welsh Assembly Government economic policies and believe that Wales public sector at its current level is unsustainable in the long term, but for the sake of minimising the fall out on a Welsh economy that doesn’t have sufficient growth to make up for the job losses that are coming, I hope those in charge of Wales’s Government realise the offer of deferring cuts from the Conservative/Liberal Democrat Government is essentially a political offer not economic one.
The £6 billion of cuts planned forth UK works out at a £220 million reduction for the Welsh budget this year and with an Assembly Election in 12 months they are going to be wary of reducing anything that might win them votes.
WAG’s total budget is £16 billion per year so the £220m although a sizeable some of it could be found this year if Ministers in Cardiff Bay were willing to try. As Brian Morgan in his article stated ‘For example, during the merger of the WDA into WAG in 2005, a pledge was made that this would not lead to any redundancies – (apparently we don’t do efficiency savings in Wales!). ‘The result is that after five years more than 100 people are on “gardening leave” as no posts have been found for them in the new set-up. This is despite the fact that the total numbers employed in WAG have expanded significantly with many of the new posts being introduced to oversee and monitor the work of the WDA! ,
So there are savings to be made that won’t have a drastic effect - If not the cuts will be deferred and they will simply be added to next year’s reductions to be spelt out by the new Chancellor George Osborne in his budget on June 22.
And there lies the issue of what do, most economists and financiers expect a much larger reduction from the UK Government to tackle the UK's deficit next year. so what will WAG so close to an Assembly Election that both parties after the General Election will want to win and prove they are still forces to be reckoned with.
The £6 billion of cuts planned forth UK works out at a £220 million reduction for the Welsh budget this year and with an Assembly Election in 12 months they are going to be wary of reducing anything that might win them votes.
WAG’s total budget is £16 billion per year so the £220m although a sizeable some of it could be found this year if Ministers in Cardiff Bay were willing to try. As Brian Morgan in his article stated ‘For example, during the merger of the WDA into WAG in 2005, a pledge was made that this would not lead to any redundancies – (apparently we don’t do efficiency savings in Wales!). ‘The result is that after five years more than 100 people are on “gardening leave” as no posts have been found for them in the new set-up. This is despite the fact that the total numbers employed in WAG have expanded significantly with many of the new posts being introduced to oversee and monitor the work of the WDA! ,
So there are savings to be made that won’t have a drastic effect - If not the cuts will be deferred and they will simply be added to next year’s reductions to be spelt out by the new Chancellor George Osborne in his budget on June 22.
And there lies the issue of what do, most economists and financiers expect a much larger reduction from the UK Government to tackle the UK's deficit next year. so what will WAG so close to an Assembly Election that both parties after the General Election will want to win and prove they are still forces to be reckoned with.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Ron Jones on S4C’s future
There is plenty of ongoing debate about the future of English language broadcasting in Wales, but since Wales became fully digital just over a month ago S4C also faces new challenges as Tinopolis Chairman Ron Jones sets out in the article below
'S4C needs to change, not to placate enemies, but because it always has to change. It's there to provide Welsh-speakers with the services they want and need in a media market where commercial revenues are insufficient to do the job.
We have never lived up to our responsibility to help S4C define what it is for in this new media age.
S4C removed the conflict between Welsh speakers who wanted television in Welsh and non-Welsh speakers who equally validly wanted network programmes.
By combining Welsh and Channel 4 programmes a compromise was reached that, ignoring a few scraps over racing, worked for all. This issue has disappeared with the technology constraints that caused it.
S4C's problem today is finding the money and talent to fill what could technically be a 24-hour channel. They have had to settle for a high proportion of repeats. Viewers don't like it but we have to accept that this approach is the only way to provide any Welsh-only channel. Funding to expand the number of hours of Welsh-language programming is not there.
Anyway, there is a finite pool of creative talent and we would struggle to supply significantly greater hours of value or quality.
A long-term problem is the imbalance in public funding for English and Welsh television in Wales. Since devolution we have seen a new consensus on a bilingual Wales. Welsh is, for all practical purposes, an official language and the equal treatment of Welsh and English is widely accepted. Equality has a price that one day we will be asked to pay.
The breadth and depth of English language television for Wales compares very badly with that in Welsh. English language television is a key component of creating the new Wales and reinforcing the feeling of what it is to be Welsh. The Welsh language will not survive a Wales that no longer know or understands what it is to be Welsh. ITV are reluctant to retain their licence obligation to Wales. The BBC may see its commitment to Wales as being more easily served by shipping in network productions than by making programmes for Wales.
There is little chance of any future government making additional funds available for public service broadcasting. Improving the English service in Wales can come from one of two sources: S4C's existing funding or the BBC.
The Welsh language cannot afford to share S4C's revenues but in order to protect them we need to campaign for a fundamental realignment of the BBC's spending. The BBC has the money and the three nations need it.
Recent controversy about viewer numbers should not be dismissed just as the effect of digital scheduling. Over the years, S4C audiences have fallen and the average age of viewers remains disproportionately high. As viewers we have a role here. Do we really want the channel? At the moment we are voting no on our remote controls. S4C has indicated it wants to consult about what Welsh-speakers want. We must help them identify what today's S4C should be.'
The rest of the article is HERE
'S4C needs to change, not to placate enemies, but because it always has to change. It's there to provide Welsh-speakers with the services they want and need in a media market where commercial revenues are insufficient to do the job.
We have never lived up to our responsibility to help S4C define what it is for in this new media age.
S4C removed the conflict between Welsh speakers who wanted television in Welsh and non-Welsh speakers who equally validly wanted network programmes.
By combining Welsh and Channel 4 programmes a compromise was reached that, ignoring a few scraps over racing, worked for all. This issue has disappeared with the technology constraints that caused it.
S4C's problem today is finding the money and talent to fill what could technically be a 24-hour channel. They have had to settle for a high proportion of repeats. Viewers don't like it but we have to accept that this approach is the only way to provide any Welsh-only channel. Funding to expand the number of hours of Welsh-language programming is not there.
Anyway, there is a finite pool of creative talent and we would struggle to supply significantly greater hours of value or quality.
A long-term problem is the imbalance in public funding for English and Welsh television in Wales. Since devolution we have seen a new consensus on a bilingual Wales. Welsh is, for all practical purposes, an official language and the equal treatment of Welsh and English is widely accepted. Equality has a price that one day we will be asked to pay.
The breadth and depth of English language television for Wales compares very badly with that in Welsh. English language television is a key component of creating the new Wales and reinforcing the feeling of what it is to be Welsh. The Welsh language will not survive a Wales that no longer know or understands what it is to be Welsh. ITV are reluctant to retain their licence obligation to Wales. The BBC may see its commitment to Wales as being more easily served by shipping in network productions than by making programmes for Wales.
There is little chance of any future government making additional funds available for public service broadcasting. Improving the English service in Wales can come from one of two sources: S4C's existing funding or the BBC.
The Welsh language cannot afford to share S4C's revenues but in order to protect them we need to campaign for a fundamental realignment of the BBC's spending. The BBC has the money and the three nations need it.
Recent controversy about viewer numbers should not be dismissed just as the effect of digital scheduling. Over the years, S4C audiences have fallen and the average age of viewers remains disproportionately high. As viewers we have a role here. Do we really want the channel? At the moment we are voting no on our remote controls. S4C has indicated it wants to consult about what Welsh-speakers want. We must help them identify what today's S4C should be.'
The rest of the article is HERE
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Intruding on Private Grief
With most other bloggers picking over the bones of the Liberal Democrat party after the Coalition or Merger with the Conservatives as I think it should be called, most of what I thought had been said so hear is a piece about the state of the Labour Party in Wales from Labour Think Tank Progress, which is the most honest assessment I have read about Labour in Wales of late apart from Lee Waters over at the Bevan Foundation blog.
I’ll reproduce it hear ‘The Conservatives were the only party to make gains, Labour is breathing a sigh of relief, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems are licking their wounds" was how the BBC neatly summed up last week's election results in Wales. While the Tories gained five Welsh seats, the swing to them was smaller in Wales than in England and Labour still claimed 26 seats, remaining the biggest party by a long shot.
Winning in Blaenau Gwent and Ynys Mon, and keeping hold of seats like Clwyd South have undoubtedly been significant in stopping David Cameron winning an overall majority, but a closer look at the figures presents a more worrying picture for us. Where once a Labour majority of less than 10,000 could be classed as marginal, now only six Welsh seats can make that claim. Indeed Labour MPs' majorities across Wales have been falling to such an extent that we now hold 15 seats with majorities of less than 5000 - ten of those with majorities less than 3000.
We can put some of this down to a national move against Labour, along with a key seats campaign strategy, and assume that we'll win these seats with bigger majorities next time round when the political climate is more favourable. But it's also possible that times have changed in Wales. If that's so, then without dramatic action this swing against us will continue. Because, although Labour is still the instinctive choice in Wales for my parents and most of their generation, talking to my old school friends and the other younger people I met on the doorstep in the run-up to the election, it was clear that they were not guided by such traditions.
They might live in the same town and still remember how the Conservatives treated Wales in the ‘80s, but their lives are dramatically different - most have travelled extensively and lived elsewhere. Unlike their parents they haven't had jobs for life, nor worked in unionised workplaces and they've solved local job shortages by getting in their cars and commuting to Cardiff, Bristol or even Reading each day. As a consequence, their views of the world and of political parties and voting are more like those of the ‘swing' voters I met on the doorstep in marginal seats in Brighton and London and less like the more tribal instincts of our parents.
So we might have breathed a sigh of relief at the number of seats we kept last week, but now that we have London councillors with bigger majorities than Welsh MPs, it's definitely not the time to take a breather. We cannot assume that we'll hold on to these newly-marginal constituencies. As well as marginal-style year round campaigning, we need to open up the party to new members and new ideas, so that we once again speak clearly to the ordinary working people of Wales, offering a vision for building a modern, vibrant Wales for the 21st century and making Labour the deliberate choice of the new generation of Welsh voters.’
As someone who believes that the current UK Coalition will probably lead to a majority Labour Government in the Welsh Assembly after next year’s Elections mores the pity (although there are other options), it would be good to think that this type of soul searching is also going on inside Welsh Labour, so Wales does make some progress in the coming years – sadly for Wales I don’t believe Welsh Labour are capable of admitting such problems or taking action to change things.
I’ll reproduce it hear ‘The Conservatives were the only party to make gains, Labour is breathing a sigh of relief, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems are licking their wounds" was how the BBC neatly summed up last week's election results in Wales. While the Tories gained five Welsh seats, the swing to them was smaller in Wales than in England and Labour still claimed 26 seats, remaining the biggest party by a long shot.
Winning in Blaenau Gwent and Ynys Mon, and keeping hold of seats like Clwyd South have undoubtedly been significant in stopping David Cameron winning an overall majority, but a closer look at the figures presents a more worrying picture for us. Where once a Labour majority of less than 10,000 could be classed as marginal, now only six Welsh seats can make that claim. Indeed Labour MPs' majorities across Wales have been falling to such an extent that we now hold 15 seats with majorities of less than 5000 - ten of those with majorities less than 3000.
We can put some of this down to a national move against Labour, along with a key seats campaign strategy, and assume that we'll win these seats with bigger majorities next time round when the political climate is more favourable. But it's also possible that times have changed in Wales. If that's so, then without dramatic action this swing against us will continue. Because, although Labour is still the instinctive choice in Wales for my parents and most of their generation, talking to my old school friends and the other younger people I met on the doorstep in the run-up to the election, it was clear that they were not guided by such traditions.
They might live in the same town and still remember how the Conservatives treated Wales in the ‘80s, but their lives are dramatically different - most have travelled extensively and lived elsewhere. Unlike their parents they haven't had jobs for life, nor worked in unionised workplaces and they've solved local job shortages by getting in their cars and commuting to Cardiff, Bristol or even Reading each day. As a consequence, their views of the world and of political parties and voting are more like those of the ‘swing' voters I met on the doorstep in marginal seats in Brighton and London and less like the more tribal instincts of our parents.
So we might have breathed a sigh of relief at the number of seats we kept last week, but now that we have London councillors with bigger majorities than Welsh MPs, it's definitely not the time to take a breather. We cannot assume that we'll hold on to these newly-marginal constituencies. As well as marginal-style year round campaigning, we need to open up the party to new members and new ideas, so that we once again speak clearly to the ordinary working people of Wales, offering a vision for building a modern, vibrant Wales for the 21st century and making Labour the deliberate choice of the new generation of Welsh voters.’
As someone who believes that the current UK Coalition will probably lead to a majority Labour Government in the Welsh Assembly after next year’s Elections mores the pity (although there are other options), it would be good to think that this type of soul searching is also going on inside Welsh Labour, so Wales does make some progress in the coming years – sadly for Wales I don’t believe Welsh Labour are capable of admitting such problems or taking action to change things.
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