Aside from the attempt by Tory Group leader Nick Bourne and other senior Welsh Tories to get Mohammed Asghar on top of the South Wales East Regional list for the Party for next year’s Assembly elections and causing a backlash from his grassroots that could have wider implications for other candidates. The Western Mail is reporting that Nick Bourne is ‘seriously worried about his own prospects of being re-elected to the Assembly next year’.
The reason being that if the Conservatives repeat Glyn Davies success in winning the Montgomeryshire seat next year, the Party would be unlikely to get any seats on the Mid & West Wales list where Nick Bourne has been elected since the Assembly was set up. It means the strange situation of a Party leader being dependent of the voters of another party, the Lib Dems to win the Montgomeryshire seat to keep him in Office.
Apart from embarrassment of being the only leader in Cardiff Bay to lose his seat, it raises the intriguing question about who would be the new Tory Group Leader in the Welsh Assembly if Nick didn’t retain his seat next May. There are the obvious candidates Jonathan Morgan, Daran Millar and Paul Davies or maybe one of the new Tory intake might be bold and fancy their chances of the top job.
Add to that the scramble between David Melding & Andrew RT Davies to top the South Wales Central List to guarantee themselves re-election, normally two Tory AM’s would be secure, but according to the Western Mail, if Mohammad Asghar is selected Tories is South Wales are threatening to vote UKIP on the regional list, which could scupper the chances of one of them.
Over the summer we have seen Lib Dems slide in the polls, Plaid Cymru airing lots of dirty laundry and Tory infighting and worried candidates about their re-elections. So what's the chance of some real insight into Welsh Labour’s troubles aside from the usual line about them being constantly broke and having no new ideas, but always managing to win big in Elections.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Thursday, August 26, 2010
A Tale of Two Polls: Voting Intention and Economic Outlook
The first is the monthly ITV Wales/YouGov for August on voting intentions for the Welsh Assembly Election are Labour 39 (down 1 on last month) Plaid Cymru on 23(up 1) the Conservatives on 22 (up 2) and the Lib Dems on 10 (down 3).
The poll seems to be following the UK trend of plummeting Lib Dem support which has got to be worrying Welsh Lib Dems despite the brave faces. Labour as usual is on top and well ahead but has seen a slight fall since June’s high of 42%; will the new leader boost their popularity even further?
Plaid Cymru will be happy that they are up and remain ahead of the Tories in the constituency and regional votes, but they remain a fair way from being able to challenge Labour. The Tory support is the most predictable in these polls consistently around the 20 – 22% mark; I wonder what would cause a spike or a drop in their support?
The poll also showed 48% of people in favour of more powers for the Welsh Assembly ahead of the referendum next year, the same number for July. There was a small fall in the no vote to 32% from 34% in July.
More analysis from ITV Wales’s Gareth Hughes HERE
The second poll was for the UK’s Angus Read, it found that Unemployment is voters top concern, It’s no real surprise but the rest of the survey will make equally grim reading for the politicians and policy makers as the majority of people are pessimistic about the future.
According to the pollsters ‘The vast majority of people in Britain think the national economy is in poor shape and few expect a swift recovery, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found ‘86 per cent of respondents say the economy is in poor or very poor shape. Almost two thirds of respondents (63%) feel the same way about their own financial situation
Unemployment remains the top concern among Britons (40% have worried about it affecting their household in the past two months), followed by the value of investments (33%); the safety of savings (32%); being able to meet mortgage or rent payments (31%); and their employers facing serious financial problems (23%).
The vast majority of Britons expect petrol (87%) and grocery (84%) prices to go up. Many people also think that a new car (48%) and a new TV (38%) will cost more in the next six months. However, people have mixed feelings about property prices: 27 per cent say they will rise, but 30 per cent think they will fall.
Britons would mostly focus on paying debt and saving money if they had extra cash. Respondents were asked what they would do if they suddenly were given an extra £1,000. On average, people would allocate £259 to paying back debt; £202 to a savings bank account; £167 to cover daily expenses such as groceries; £121 towards a big purchase such as a car or a home improvement; £117 to pay for personal items such as gifts or a treat; £109 to invest in an ISA; and £26 to buy shares in a particular company.’
The poll also looked at political leadership and there was bad news all round as Mervyn King the Governor of the Bank of England is more trusted on economic matters than either David Cameron, Nick Clegg, George Osborne or any Labour politicians, but the Tories will take some heart that they are most trusted to bring down the deficit down while Labour will be happy they are more trusted to create jobs. These results paint a sorry picture of political leadership in UK politics and Wales’s leaders are certainly no better.
The poll seems to be following the UK trend of plummeting Lib Dem support which has got to be worrying Welsh Lib Dems despite the brave faces. Labour as usual is on top and well ahead but has seen a slight fall since June’s high of 42%; will the new leader boost their popularity even further?
Plaid Cymru will be happy that they are up and remain ahead of the Tories in the constituency and regional votes, but they remain a fair way from being able to challenge Labour. The Tory support is the most predictable in these polls consistently around the 20 – 22% mark; I wonder what would cause a spike or a drop in their support?
The poll also showed 48% of people in favour of more powers for the Welsh Assembly ahead of the referendum next year, the same number for July. There was a small fall in the no vote to 32% from 34% in July.
More analysis from ITV Wales’s Gareth Hughes HERE
The second poll was for the UK’s Angus Read, it found that Unemployment is voters top concern, It’s no real surprise but the rest of the survey will make equally grim reading for the politicians and policy makers as the majority of people are pessimistic about the future.
According to the pollsters ‘The vast majority of people in Britain think the national economy is in poor shape and few expect a swift recovery, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found ‘86 per cent of respondents say the economy is in poor or very poor shape. Almost two thirds of respondents (63%) feel the same way about their own financial situation
Unemployment remains the top concern among Britons (40% have worried about it affecting their household in the past two months), followed by the value of investments (33%); the safety of savings (32%); being able to meet mortgage or rent payments (31%); and their employers facing serious financial problems (23%).
The vast majority of Britons expect petrol (87%) and grocery (84%) prices to go up. Many people also think that a new car (48%) and a new TV (38%) will cost more in the next six months. However, people have mixed feelings about property prices: 27 per cent say they will rise, but 30 per cent think they will fall.
Britons would mostly focus on paying debt and saving money if they had extra cash. Respondents were asked what they would do if they suddenly were given an extra £1,000. On average, people would allocate £259 to paying back debt; £202 to a savings bank account; £167 to cover daily expenses such as groceries; £121 towards a big purchase such as a car or a home improvement; £117 to pay for personal items such as gifts or a treat; £109 to invest in an ISA; and £26 to buy shares in a particular company.’
The poll also looked at political leadership and there was bad news all round as Mervyn King the Governor of the Bank of England is more trusted on economic matters than either David Cameron, Nick Clegg, George Osborne or any Labour politicians, but the Tories will take some heart that they are most trusted to bring down the deficit down while Labour will be happy they are more trusted to create jobs. These results paint a sorry picture of political leadership in UK politics and Wales’s leaders are certainly no better.
Monday, August 23, 2010
An Ode to Julia
Nothing is really inspiring me to blog at the minute, so instead here’s a spoof video of Australian PM Julia Gillard doing a version of Dolly Parton's 9 - 5 before she got the top job, I couldn’t find anything similar on her opponent Tony Abbott.
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