Friday, October 1, 2010

More worrying economic news for Wales

Wales largest Industrial Estate, Treforest in South Wales has been put up for sale for £35million less than the current owners Sergo paid for it back in 2006 raising worries about the site future especially when rent from the 130 acre site has dropped significantly since the recession began and major tenants like BBC Wales are due to move out next year.

The estate was built back in the 1930s after the last major financial crash to address high unemployment in South Wales and it would be very worrying if the current recession put a major dent in the viability of the site in the long term.

According to the Western Mail ‘The estate is being marketed for Segro by property agents King Sturge. Head of the investment team at the firm’s Cardiff office, Jonathan Phillips, is working alongside the investment team in London.

Mr Phillips said the estate, which covers around 130 acres, had already received expressions of interest, but as yet no formal bids have been made.

Mr Phillips added: “This is a great investment opportunity for an investor or property company for what is Wales’ largest and leading industrial estate.

“There has been a great deal of initial interest, but we are still in the process of providing detailed information ahead of formal bids.”
Mr Phillips said the estate was in a strong business location because of how close it is to Junction 32 of the M4.

He added: “As the business space offer in north Cardiff has succumbed to residential redevelopment, so Treforest and the neighbouring Parc Nantgarw has attracted occupiers from the office, industrial and trade counter sectors.”
The estate has a current annual rent role of £2.9m, which is understood to be well below the income generated by the estate when acquired by Segro.

The BBC’s current lease of its production facility, where programmes such as Dr Who are made, expires in 2011. In spring 2012 production will be relocated to the drama village at Roath Basin in Cardiff Bay – a development being spearheaded by Igloo Regeneration.

There are currently around 24% of the Industrial Estate’s buildings unoccupied.'

Given the importance of the Treforest Industrial Estate to the South Wales economy in terms of its current occupants, location, wide range of rental opportunities and significant employment, for all our sakes we should hope that a suitable buyer can be found to build on the sites past success and not one that is not simply interested bottom line or there could be more trouble ahead.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Putting Square Pegs into Round Holes

As the Coalition continues to focus on the UK’s structural deficit and talk about the medium and long term problem it poses to future prosperity, it worth pausing and noting that there is another structural problem that poses a greater threat to the future wealth and economic prosperity across the UK that everyone regardless of ideology can rally around to attempt to solve and that is structural unemployment, a curse that was with us long before the banking crisis, credit crunch and recession and has a particular resonance in Wales.

If your still not convinced it needs resolving then this post this from Economist Paul Krugman about a US Government report on the aftermath of the Great Depression is sobering

'In the light of this brief survey of the characteristics of the labor supply and the probable demand for labor, what is the outlook for unemployment? My opinion is that the demand, even though active and strong, will be met by supply which will be badly adjusted to fit it.

There may very well be a great shortage of labour of certain kinds, with no prospect of any shifting or adapting which will bring about an increased supply. But this will be accompanied by an actual surplus of labor in other occupations. I believe this present labor supply of ours is peculiarly unadoptable and untrained.

It cannot respond to the opportunities which industry may offer. This implies a situation of great inequality-full employment, much over-time, high wages, and great prosperity for certain favoured groups, accompanied by low wages, short time, unemployment, and possibly destitution for others.’


That’s right: in the depths of the Great Depression, wise heads proclaimed the problem one of structural unemployment, which obviously could not be cured just by increasing demand.

Having recently completed research into the state of the unemployment and job and training opportunities I have seen with my own eyes and am well aware of the miss matches of skills that do exists in some Welsh communities and keeps unemployed numbers higher than they ought to be.

Its yet another issue that needs to be addressed by the Work and Pension Secretary among the multitude of others issues facing the long term unemployed and those on Incapacity Benefit if he and his Government want to reduce the welfare bill and help get people back in to work.

And its not as easy a cause to fit in to soundbites as the deficit reduction, it’s as important, I wonder if we have any takers among our politicians and political parties for this structural fight?