Fascinating insight in to Carwyn Jones and his teams thinking about David Cameron’s veto and of the potential of Scotland leaving the UK from Nick Powell over at ITV Blog
He writes ‘Of course in Scotland the First Minister is the SNP leader, Alex Salmond. Far from being committed the United Kingdom, Mr Salmond is planning a referendum on Scottish independence. At his press conference to explain his letter, Carwyn Jones said that was a particular concern:
‘In pandering to a relatively small number of Euro-sceptics, [David Cameron risks]
I think in Scotland, where public opinion is particularly pro-European, [that] people are going to ask themselves whether they want to be in the EU or the UK. I think that’s unhelpful for those of us who want to see the UK continue’.
So I asked him what Wales should do if Scotland does leave the UK:
‘We can’t carry on as we are now. The UK couldn’t just carry on with a bit of it gone. There would have to be a convention between England, Wales and Northern Ireland to discuss what the shape of the future state would be’.
It’s one thing to raise the spectre of Scotland leaving the UK as part of his latest row with the Prime Minister. It’s quite another for the First Minister to reveal that he’s thinking about how Wales should respond to such a momentous development. But what would happen if there was no renegotiation of offer, just a continuation of the present UK minus Scotland? It would presumably have to have a new name, ‘the United Kingdom of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland’ or ‘Ukipia’ has already been mischievously suggested.
Some close to the thinking at the top of the Welsh government have been warning privately for some time that although their preference is for ever-deepening devolution partnered with Europe’s ever-closer union, the idea of England dominating the UK without Scotland would turn them into Welsh nationalists overnight. As part of its survey of how last week’s events in Brussels have left the UK’s economic and political interests, the Financial Times includes a warning of ‘the pinched politics of nationalist delusion’. English nationalist delusion is what’s in the author’s sights.'
It is some comfort to politics watchers that there are signs of life in Cardiff Bay at least, but maybe not intelligent life.
5 comments:
"It’s one thing to raise the spectre of Scotland leaving the UK as part of his latest row with the Prime Minister. It’s quite another for the First Minister to reveal that he’s thinking about how Wales should respond to such a momentous development."
The Scottish referendum is real, it is going to happen, and of course the Welsh Government (and the rest of us) need to think about how we will respond to the outcome, whatever that may be.
The fact that commentators like Nick Powell seem surprised by this just shows how they regard the Welsh Government (justifiably or otherwise).
Yet more knee jerk reaction nonsense from the Bay Bubble I'm afraid. The fact that some people could argue that an independent Scotland could turn them into 'Welsh nationalists 'says it all. Perhaps some of us who have in the been in the UK Labour Party for a long time should start ask some serious questions about individuals who seem to have very little confidence in the ability of Labour to win in England. As for last week's events before writing letters that will end up in the bin perhaps certain people might benefit from waiting to see how it all pans out. As Kaletsky points out in an excellent article in today's Times last week's so called Treaty isn't worth a fig. It hasn't got he support of the man who will probably be the next President of France, Francoise Hollande for a start.
Thanks for the comments
WA, at least they are thinking about what could happen to Wales in the Welsh Government after the Scottish referendum and the press are finally catching up. It’s just a shame that most welsh people aren’t taking any notice of what is being said by Welsh politicians of all shades about something that could have a major impact on their daily lives.
Jeff, the EU 'summits' are a farce, what is it 10 go's and Europe's leaders haven't managed to change the situation a great deal and stumble from crisis to crisis.
I wrote on another blog Carwyn's letter is for effect, but plenty of Welsh people are gullible enough to think it will make a difference and reward him for standing up to the Tories and if Labour turning themselves in nationalists lite meant staying in control of Wales they'd do it in a heartbeat, its not about ideology it's about power.
What is amusing is to see some Labour Party members condemn Cameron for using the veto on a treaty whose most plausible outcome as Martin Wolf in the FT points out is an "orgy of fiscal austerity: long term structural recession in vulnerable countries. The single currency will come to stand for wage falls,debt deflation and prolonged economic slumps." The irony is that this is the Tory Plan A on a Europena scale with bells on it. It something that no self respecting Keynesian let alone Socialist could ever support because it just isn't going to work as the next few months will prove. I doubt if Ed Balls would agree to a policy direction which would effectively see economic policy dictated by the Bundesbank and the CDU. But why worry about the economics when it is far easier to play to the gallery and bash the Tories.
and if the latest opinion polls are to be believed the Tories are winning the political arguments with the country, where does that leave the two Ed's and Carwyn's position?
The irony is that the City isn't protected after Cameron's veto, Ollie Rehn the EU's Economic Commissioner said as such over the weekend, so its was gesture politics like Carwyn' letter.
I'd agree the Treaty enshrines austerity and stagnation which is really bad news for Wales.
A good take on the misery that awaits if all this comes to pass is from James Medaway at NEF on the link below. http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/2011/12/14/eu-deal-permanent-austerity-permanent-stagnation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+neweconomics%2Fblog+%28the+new+economics+foundation+blog%29
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