So the result are in and the Labour Party has emerged as the ones who get to rearrange the deckchairs on the Titanic in Cardiff Bay for the next 5 years, while Plaid Cymru engage in their latest bout of navel gazing and the Tories will be pleased with the gains and wondering how they could lose a leader at the same time. The Lib Dems are simply breathing a huge sigh of relief that they weren’t wiped out on Thursday.
The results like the election campaign were dull and pretty predictable apart from Tory leader Nick Bourne losing his seat on the Mid & West Wales Regional List, voters doing what the Welsh Tories failed to do back in 2009 and decapitated their leader.
In all honesty Nick was well past his sell by date, he’d be in the job a decade and had been losing support in the wide party and the Assembly group since the 2007 Assembly Election, so now the hunt is on to find his successor and it promises to be interesting.
The candidates most likely to become leader are Andrew RT Davies or Daran Miller, both popular with the grassroots, neither are comfortable with Welsh Devolution and both are more right wing in outlook towards the economy, the NHS and public services – in short the opposite of Nick Bourne.
There are other candidates who could run including Paul Davies who might be seen by Tory high command as too native or Angela Burns who BBC Wales Political Editor Betsan Powys and Laura McAllister said on election night is one of the most underestimated in the Assembly and more than a match for her male colleagues, but stranger things have happened and I wouldn’t rule anything out at this early stage.
Support of their colleagues and grassroots will be important in securing the leadership, but there are other outside forces to consider. Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan, Welsh Conservative MP’s and the UK Conservative Party will all want to influence the direction of the party, they are naturally more right wing in outlook and would want a candidate leading the Assembly group to reflect that – but how much influence can they bring to bear will be interesting to see.
As for what effect a new less devolution friendly leader will have on the Tories electoral prospects in Wales is anyone’s guess, but Labour must already be salivating at the prospect of endlessly pointing out the Welsh Conservatives remain unreconstructed Thatcherties at heart.
One final thing, spare a thought for former AM Jonathan Morgan who would have been a natural replacement for his mentor Nick Bourne, but who also lost his seat to Julie Morgan in Cardiff North proving elections are cruel things indeed.
UPDATE Paul Davies has been named as acting leader of the Tory Assembly Group
As Valleys Mam asked in the comments is this good or bad news for Paul’s full time leadership ambitions – according to Betsan Powys he was the only candidate who put his name forward and from her blog ‘Now for the bit that will make one group member in particular sit up. I'm told that Paul Davies' candidacy for the interim leadership was "the product of progressive forces within the Welsh Conservatives working together".
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Rewarding Failure
It typical of a lacklustre and mostly irrelevant Welsh Assembly campaign that two days before the vote things start to get a bit interesting
The final leaders debate, the first debate I have seen or heard during this campaign was dire, full of platitudes and hackneyed old clichés that people continue to fall for, I could on, but Denis Campbell over at UK Progressive has a great take on last night’s charade worth a read if you haven’t already.
Then this morning we learnt of a couple of incidents that might affect the results in two Valleys seats
The first Huw Lewis, Labour AM for Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney accepted a £10,000 donation from Millar Argent, the owners of Ffos Y Fran Open Cast Mine to his leadership campaign, the same Ffos Y Fran that has done so much to damage to local resident and the town.
The most damming quote is from Alyson Austin, of Residents against Ffos-y-Fran said: "We have had no support from him at all. We had a job to get him to come out of the Welsh Assembly to receive a petition we had against the development"
My initial thought was what a pity this has only seen the light of day this week, but then again it will probably make little difference to the result in Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney on Thursday.
Then we have Labour flexing their muscles in Caerphilly where the race between current AM Jeff Cuthbert and Plaid Cymru's Ron Davies remains tight with a few days left. Plaid Cymru has accused Labour of taking its placards down and blithely a Labour MP Wayne admitted that he had.
The sheer fact that Labour feels it can ask a resident to take down opposition party placards without any valid reason and with total impunity should ring alarms bells with voters and not just in Caerphilly, but this is what happens when voters continue to reward self serving Labour candidates at every Welsh election.
I said back last year that Caerphilly would a dirty fight and it’s proving to be true, it seems that challenging Labour in its heartlands remains as difficult as ever, what a sad indictment of 21st Century Wales.
Finally of more concern is the BNP who seems to be everywhere, both yesterday in my street and today outside a I meeting went to, they were out with their loud hailers, urging people to vote for them – if the parties do nothing else after May 5th they need to tackle this head on because Wales has enough problems without giving the BNP traction to spread their ignorance, lies and hatred.
The final leaders debate, the first debate I have seen or heard during this campaign was dire, full of platitudes and hackneyed old clichés that people continue to fall for, I could on, but Denis Campbell over at UK Progressive has a great take on last night’s charade worth a read if you haven’t already.
Then this morning we learnt of a couple of incidents that might affect the results in two Valleys seats
The first Huw Lewis, Labour AM for Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney accepted a £10,000 donation from Millar Argent, the owners of Ffos Y Fran Open Cast Mine to his leadership campaign, the same Ffos Y Fran that has done so much to damage to local resident and the town.
The most damming quote is from Alyson Austin, of Residents against Ffos-y-Fran said: "We have had no support from him at all. We had a job to get him to come out of the Welsh Assembly to receive a petition we had against the development"
My initial thought was what a pity this has only seen the light of day this week, but then again it will probably make little difference to the result in Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney on Thursday.
Then we have Labour flexing their muscles in Caerphilly where the race between current AM Jeff Cuthbert and Plaid Cymru's Ron Davies remains tight with a few days left. Plaid Cymru has accused Labour of taking its placards down and blithely a Labour MP Wayne admitted that he had.
The sheer fact that Labour feels it can ask a resident to take down opposition party placards without any valid reason and with total impunity should ring alarms bells with voters and not just in Caerphilly, but this is what happens when voters continue to reward self serving Labour candidates at every Welsh election.
I said back last year that Caerphilly would a dirty fight and it’s proving to be true, it seems that challenging Labour in its heartlands remains as difficult as ever, what a sad indictment of 21st Century Wales.
Finally of more concern is the BNP who seems to be everywhere, both yesterday in my street and today outside a I meeting went to, they were out with their loud hailers, urging people to vote for them – if the parties do nothing else after May 5th they need to tackle this head on because Wales has enough problems without giving the BNP traction to spread their ignorance, lies and hatred.
Monday, May 2, 2011
'UK ‘risks reversing gains’ on child poverty'
A new report published from a major International Economic Think Tank, the OECD had good and bad news on Child Poverty in the UK as the Financial Times reports.
‘A decade’s investment in reducing child poverty in the UK looks set to be undone, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development warned last Wednesday (27th April).
In its first ever report on family well being in more than 30 countries, the Paris- based think tank said that before the financial crisis child poverty in the UK fell by more than in any other OECD country.
A period of sustained investment between 1995 to 2005 saw the proportion of children living in a household with less than half the median incomes – the OECD’s definition of poverty – drop from 17.4 per cent to 10.5 per cent, below the OECD average of 12.7 per cent.
Over the same period, thanks in part to higher benefit rates, welfare-to-work programmes and more employment, the growth in average family incomes was the third highest in the OECD.
However, “progress in child poverty reduction in the UK has stalled and is now predicted to increase,” the think tank said, adding that social protection spending on families itself “needs to be protected”.
Between 2003 and 2007 the UK became one of the biggest investors in families in the OECD, the report says. Early years spending rose substantially, driven by new cash supports for children around birth and increased investment in child care.
Today, however, “spending cuts, such as cutting benefits for pregnancy and childbirth, and a freeze on child cash benefits, will affect many families”.
Cutting back on early years services will make it difficult for the UK to achieve its policy of making work pay for all, the think tank said. And providing services such as affordable and good quality local day-care centres, with flexible opening hours, is key to helping families with children on low incomes into work.
Under moves to eliminate the deficit, the budget of many Sure Start centres which provide such services are being cut, with the coalition saying it wants such services focused on the most disadvantaged.
The coalition’s plans to extend 15 hours of free early education to disadvantaged children as young as two is a positive step, the think tank said. But childcare costs remain a barrier to work for parents higher up the income scale and “there is room in UK policy for an effective childcare supplement for working parents”.
After accounting for child care, over two-thirds of a typical second earner’s income is effectively taxed away, the report says. With 68 per cent of income typically going on childcare, that is comfortably ahead of the OECD average of 52 per cent.
Moreover, entering work does not guarantee that children in a low income family will be free of poverty – indeed, in-work child poverty has been growing recently.
The report shows that poverty in households with children is rising in nearly all OECD countries and these days children are more likely than pensioners to be poor.
In some countries, including the US, one in five children now live in poverty.
Work forms a crucial part of tackling that, Angel Gurria, the OECD secretary general said, and “family benefits need to be well designed to maintain work incentives”. But benefits must also protect the most vulnerable, “otherwise we risk creating high, long-term social costs for future generations”.
‘A decade’s investment in reducing child poverty in the UK looks set to be undone, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development warned last Wednesday (27th April).
In its first ever report on family well being in more than 30 countries, the Paris- based think tank said that before the financial crisis child poverty in the UK fell by more than in any other OECD country.
A period of sustained investment between 1995 to 2005 saw the proportion of children living in a household with less than half the median incomes – the OECD’s definition of poverty – drop from 17.4 per cent to 10.5 per cent, below the OECD average of 12.7 per cent.
Over the same period, thanks in part to higher benefit rates, welfare-to-work programmes and more employment, the growth in average family incomes was the third highest in the OECD.
However, “progress in child poverty reduction in the UK has stalled and is now predicted to increase,” the think tank said, adding that social protection spending on families itself “needs to be protected”.
Between 2003 and 2007 the UK became one of the biggest investors in families in the OECD, the report says. Early years spending rose substantially, driven by new cash supports for children around birth and increased investment in child care.
Today, however, “spending cuts, such as cutting benefits for pregnancy and childbirth, and a freeze on child cash benefits, will affect many families”.
Cutting back on early years services will make it difficult for the UK to achieve its policy of making work pay for all, the think tank said. And providing services such as affordable and good quality local day-care centres, with flexible opening hours, is key to helping families with children on low incomes into work.
Under moves to eliminate the deficit, the budget of many Sure Start centres which provide such services are being cut, with the coalition saying it wants such services focused on the most disadvantaged.
The coalition’s plans to extend 15 hours of free early education to disadvantaged children as young as two is a positive step, the think tank said. But childcare costs remain a barrier to work for parents higher up the income scale and “there is room in UK policy for an effective childcare supplement for working parents”.
After accounting for child care, over two-thirds of a typical second earner’s income is effectively taxed away, the report says. With 68 per cent of income typically going on childcare, that is comfortably ahead of the OECD average of 52 per cent.
Moreover, entering work does not guarantee that children in a low income family will be free of poverty – indeed, in-work child poverty has been growing recently.
The report shows that poverty in households with children is rising in nearly all OECD countries and these days children are more likely than pensioners to be poor.
In some countries, including the US, one in five children now live in poverty.
Work forms a crucial part of tackling that, Angel Gurria, the OECD secretary general said, and “family benefits need to be well designed to maintain work incentives”. But benefits must also protect the most vulnerable, “otherwise we risk creating high, long-term social costs for future generations”.
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