Wales’s First Minister Carwyn Jones will no doubt claim he has been really busy over the summer doing all sorts of very important things and hasn’t been AWOL as most people suspect, but whatever he and his Ministers have or haven’t been doing as they are heading back to Cardiff Bay next week here are a few things to ponder.
Firstly is the First Minister going to release the details of his visit to New Zealand specifically if he managed to secure investment for Wales as well as any potential leads for Welsh business?
I ask not because I object to him going like some people, but because the Welsh Government’s International Business Wales office in New Zealand office was closed in July, (something that has gone unreported) probably due to the business and investment opportunities and associated operating costs not being cost effective or worthwhile.
And if the trip to New Zealand was only to met political leaders and wish the rugby team well for the World Cup then Carwyn shouldn’t be afraid to say so, not everything a Head of Government does has to be about securing trade and investment. But by telling everyone the trip was solely about investment especially in these difficult economic times then he shouldn’t be afraid to answer legitimate questions on the matter on his return to Wales.
Talking of inward investment we learnt today that his Business Minister Edwina Hart is still refusing to talk to a Committee of Welsh MP about the Welsh Government’s inward investment plans even though they are coming to the National Assembly for Wales for the meeting. Rhodri Morgan’s former right-hand man Mark Drakeford is Labour’s representative, says it all another anti enterprise dinosaur who might actually represent Edwina’s views on business well to the Committee members.
I mean what's the problem, it’s not as if the Labour Party is ashamed of its appalling economic record in Wales because it would have changed course by now if it was. Maybe it’s more simple there’s no fall out or accountability for bad Ministerial decisions by either by Assembly colleagues or the electorate so Welsh Ministers can say and do what the hell they like with impunity.
And lastly why was there complete silence about yesterday’s unemployment figures from Carwyn Jones is a 7,000 increase in unemployment in Wales to now stand at 122,000 or almost 8.5% of the workforce really unoteworthy, a holding Statement from Edwina about the Welsh Government still reviewing the best way to support Welsh business is almost comical.
Or was his silence more to do with the fact unemployment is falling in Scotland due to a more active First Minister and Cabinet perhaps exposing the total lack of action in Cardiff Bay, or the sight of a new economic policy since May’s election – rearranging deckchairs in the Business Department may be good for the Minister but for those worried about jobs it makes no difference.
Any answers to the above points would be welcome.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Interesting David, but you’re missing the point
There has been lots of comment and reaction to Tory AM David Melding’s suggestion that the Conservative Party in Wales should follow the example of Scottish Tories and become a separate centre right party or at least aim for more autonomy from Tory Central office.
And with the lack of action in Cardiff Bay at the moment its got the political anoraks among us wondering about how viable it would be. Would new group leader Andrew RT Davies or Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan be supportive of such a change, would it attract new voters and ones from other parties and how different would it really be to the Conservative Party?
But aside from those talking points and David’s shot across Nick Bourne’s bows for only doing ‘two thirds of a job’ in transforming the Tory Party when he was Assembly leader, a new right wing Welsh party would have the same problems David and his colleagues always have – that Wales, its politics, parties and voters are left wing and the majority of political discourse is left wing.
Despite the progress of the last decade centre right politics remains a minority interest in Wales and I have no doubt that the other parties will use guilt by association for any new centre right party started here in Wales.
The new party members will be asked continually about their views of Margaret Thatcher, her economic policies and the miners’ strike and would also be accused of not being Welsh and not caring about Wales like the Conservatives are now – you have to ask why anyone would put themselves through the ordeal without the prospect of real influence or ever getting in to Government?
But in this context, it’s noteworthy that the most significant developments in Welsh politics since May’s election has come from the Conservative Party following the UK Governments announcement of the Calman Wales style Commission before the summer recess.
And with the lack of action in Cardiff Bay at the moment its got the political anoraks among us wondering about how viable it would be. Would new group leader Andrew RT Davies or Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan be supportive of such a change, would it attract new voters and ones from other parties and how different would it really be to the Conservative Party?
But aside from those talking points and David’s shot across Nick Bourne’s bows for only doing ‘two thirds of a job’ in transforming the Tory Party when he was Assembly leader, a new right wing Welsh party would have the same problems David and his colleagues always have – that Wales, its politics, parties and voters are left wing and the majority of political discourse is left wing.
Despite the progress of the last decade centre right politics remains a minority interest in Wales and I have no doubt that the other parties will use guilt by association for any new centre right party started here in Wales.
The new party members will be asked continually about their views of Margaret Thatcher, her economic policies and the miners’ strike and would also be accused of not being Welsh and not caring about Wales like the Conservatives are now – you have to ask why anyone would put themselves through the ordeal without the prospect of real influence or ever getting in to Government?
But in this context, it’s noteworthy that the most significant developments in Welsh politics since May’s election has come from the Conservative Party following the UK Governments announcement of the Calman Wales style Commission before the summer recess.
Monday, September 12, 2011
'10 year squeeze on household incomes' - IFS
As if economic news couldn’t be bleaker, along comes a new report from the respected Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) looking at the effect on individuals of what economists and financiers are calling the ’Great Recession’ in OECD countries and it's no surprise it found income levels have stagnated and the pattern will continue for years, with the least well off fairing badly in the UK.
The main findings shows that ‘The fall of 6% in UK GDP from peak to trough during the Great Recession lies somewhere in the middle of the international experience. Countries such as Ireland, Japan and Sweden experienced sharper falls, and countries such as Canada saw smaller falls (or, in the Australian case, no fall at all).
The employment rate in the UK fell by substantially less than GDP – it was 1.6 percentage points lower in 2009 than 2007. Again, this is somewhere in the middle of the international experience. Over the same period, the employment rate rose in Germany, barely changed in France, and fell by more than 4 percentage points in the US. Falls in employment in the UK were concentrated most on men and the young, a pattern observed in many other countries.
UK households were relatively insulated from the immediate impacts of the Great Recession, as median net household incomes continued to grow slightly between 2007–08 and 2009–10 (the latest household income data available). This is a phenomenon common to other countries (e.g. Sweden, the US, and even Ireland), due in large part to the stabilising role of state welfare systems and (particularly in the UK case) unusually generous increases in financial state support during the recession. Much of this protective effect was concentrated on households in the bottom half of the income distribution.
However, as governments attempt to repair their public finances, household incomes now look set to be squeezed for a considerable length of time. In the most recent financial year (2010-11), earnings, state benefits and tax credits all fell in real terms in the UK. As part of this study, IFS researchers estimate that this is likely to have led to a fall in median net household income of 3.5%, the largest single-year drop since 1981, returning it to its 2003–04 level.
It thus seems that much of the impact of the Great Recession on UK living standards was not felt until after the economy had stopped contracting, but that the pain was most definitely delayed rather than avoided. Previous IFS research has already shown that the decline in average living standards looks set to continue until at least 2013-14. Taken together, this would mean that the UK had experienced one of the worst decades for changes in living standards since at least the Second World War. The Great Recession thus looks set to cast a very long shadow.
It thus seems set to continue until at least 2013-14. Taken together, this would mean that the UK had experienced one of the worst decades for changes in living standards since at least the Second World War. The Great Recession thus looks set to cast a very long shadow.
Robert Joyce, a Research Economist at IFS and a contributor to the report, said “The current economic downturn began more than 3 years ago, and may seem like old news. But, as in other developed countries, the most severe consequences of the recession on UK living standards have only just begun to be felt, and will continue to be felt for years to come.”
The UK part of the report is HERE
The main findings shows that ‘The fall of 6% in UK GDP from peak to trough during the Great Recession lies somewhere in the middle of the international experience. Countries such as Ireland, Japan and Sweden experienced sharper falls, and countries such as Canada saw smaller falls (or, in the Australian case, no fall at all).
The employment rate in the UK fell by substantially less than GDP – it was 1.6 percentage points lower in 2009 than 2007. Again, this is somewhere in the middle of the international experience. Over the same period, the employment rate rose in Germany, barely changed in France, and fell by more than 4 percentage points in the US. Falls in employment in the UK were concentrated most on men and the young, a pattern observed in many other countries.
UK households were relatively insulated from the immediate impacts of the Great Recession, as median net household incomes continued to grow slightly between 2007–08 and 2009–10 (the latest household income data available). This is a phenomenon common to other countries (e.g. Sweden, the US, and even Ireland), due in large part to the stabilising role of state welfare systems and (particularly in the UK case) unusually generous increases in financial state support during the recession. Much of this protective effect was concentrated on households in the bottom half of the income distribution.
However, as governments attempt to repair their public finances, household incomes now look set to be squeezed for a considerable length of time. In the most recent financial year (2010-11), earnings, state benefits and tax credits all fell in real terms in the UK. As part of this study, IFS researchers estimate that this is likely to have led to a fall in median net household income of 3.5%, the largest single-year drop since 1981, returning it to its 2003–04 level.
It thus seems that much of the impact of the Great Recession on UK living standards was not felt until after the economy had stopped contracting, but that the pain was most definitely delayed rather than avoided. Previous IFS research has already shown that the decline in average living standards looks set to continue until at least 2013-14. Taken together, this would mean that the UK had experienced one of the worst decades for changes in living standards since at least the Second World War. The Great Recession thus looks set to cast a very long shadow.
It thus seems set to continue until at least 2013-14. Taken together, this would mean that the UK had experienced one of the worst decades for changes in living standards since at least the Second World War. The Great Recession thus looks set to cast a very long shadow.
Robert Joyce, a Research Economist at IFS and a contributor to the report, said “The current economic downturn began more than 3 years ago, and may seem like old news. But, as in other developed countries, the most severe consequences of the recession on UK living standards have only just begun to be felt, and will continue to be felt for years to come.”
The UK part of the report is HERE
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