It’s just over a week to Christmas, the Assembly is in recess, so it must be a good time to publish the annual GVA figures for Wales making sure they get lost in the pre Christmas noise and sparing Welsh Minister’s having to answer awkward questions about why they are so bad and why Wales remains at the bottom of the heap again.
So what do they say, little different from previous years unfortunately, there has been some bounce back from the recession, but Welsh GVA for 2010 was still 0.3% down from 2009 figures to now stand at 74.0%.
The key points from the latest release are:
Total headline GVA in Wales in 2010 was £45.5 billion, up 3.5 per cent on 2009, GVA for the UK (excluding extra-regio) rose by 3.2 per cent.
Headline GVA per head in Wales in 2010 was £15,145, up 3.3 per cent on 2009, whilst GVA per head for the UK (excluding extra-regio) rose by 2.4 per cent.
GVA per head in Wales in 2010 was 74.0 per cent of the UK average, the lowest amongst the devolved countries and English regions.
The NUTS2 estimates for 2009 show headline GVA per head in East Wales and West Wales and the Valleys at 91.4 per cent and 62.8 per cent of the UK average respectively.
The Government will no doubt focus on the increased output from 2009 and say things are moving in the right direction, however 2009 was when the UK and Wales was in a brutal recession which means much of the 2010 increase in making up the lost capacity which is positive but the Welsh economy remains on life support and both Government’s need to be more proactive to help create jobs and secure investment.
Yes the folks in Cardiff Bay are constrained by what they can do but the GVA figures combined with today’s unemployment news that 11,000 more people are out of work and the unemployment rate stands 9.1% should be the catalyst for action not more hand wringing.
As for actual data, we are a few weeks from 2012 and today’s figures cover 2010, that’s right they are already more than a year out of date. So how can anyone from investors to business and voters take the Welsh Government seriously on economic matters when it doesn’t take the economy seriously itself and refuses to publish more up to date economic data despite regional Governments in Scotland and Catatonia managing to?
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
‘The UK without Scotland would turn them into Welsh nationalists overnight’
Fascinating insight in to Carwyn Jones and his teams thinking about David Cameron’s veto and of the potential of Scotland leaving the UK from Nick Powell over at ITV Blog
He writes ‘Of course in Scotland the First Minister is the SNP leader, Alex Salmond. Far from being committed the United Kingdom, Mr Salmond is planning a referendum on Scottish independence. At his press conference to explain his letter, Carwyn Jones said that was a particular concern:
‘In pandering to a relatively small number of Euro-sceptics, [David Cameron risks]
I think in Scotland, where public opinion is particularly pro-European, [that] people are going to ask themselves whether they want to be in the EU or the UK. I think that’s unhelpful for those of us who want to see the UK continue’.
So I asked him what Wales should do if Scotland does leave the UK:
‘We can’t carry on as we are now. The UK couldn’t just carry on with a bit of it gone. There would have to be a convention between England, Wales and Northern Ireland to discuss what the shape of the future state would be’.
It’s one thing to raise the spectre of Scotland leaving the UK as part of his latest row with the Prime Minister. It’s quite another for the First Minister to reveal that he’s thinking about how Wales should respond to such a momentous development. But what would happen if there was no renegotiation of offer, just a continuation of the present UK minus Scotland? It would presumably have to have a new name, ‘the United Kingdom of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland’ or ‘Ukipia’ has already been mischievously suggested.
Some close to the thinking at the top of the Welsh government have been warning privately for some time that although their preference is for ever-deepening devolution partnered with Europe’s ever-closer union, the idea of England dominating the UK without Scotland would turn them into Welsh nationalists overnight. As part of its survey of how last week’s events in Brussels have left the UK’s economic and political interests, the Financial Times includes a warning of ‘the pinched politics of nationalist delusion’. English nationalist delusion is what’s in the author’s sights.'
It is some comfort to politics watchers that there are signs of life in Cardiff Bay at least, but maybe not intelligent life.
He writes ‘Of course in Scotland the First Minister is the SNP leader, Alex Salmond. Far from being committed the United Kingdom, Mr Salmond is planning a referendum on Scottish independence. At his press conference to explain his letter, Carwyn Jones said that was a particular concern:
‘In pandering to a relatively small number of Euro-sceptics, [David Cameron risks]
I think in Scotland, where public opinion is particularly pro-European, [that] people are going to ask themselves whether they want to be in the EU or the UK. I think that’s unhelpful for those of us who want to see the UK continue’.
So I asked him what Wales should do if Scotland does leave the UK:
‘We can’t carry on as we are now. The UK couldn’t just carry on with a bit of it gone. There would have to be a convention between England, Wales and Northern Ireland to discuss what the shape of the future state would be’.
It’s one thing to raise the spectre of Scotland leaving the UK as part of his latest row with the Prime Minister. It’s quite another for the First Minister to reveal that he’s thinking about how Wales should respond to such a momentous development. But what would happen if there was no renegotiation of offer, just a continuation of the present UK minus Scotland? It would presumably have to have a new name, ‘the United Kingdom of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland’ or ‘Ukipia’ has already been mischievously suggested.
Some close to the thinking at the top of the Welsh government have been warning privately for some time that although their preference is for ever-deepening devolution partnered with Europe’s ever-closer union, the idea of England dominating the UK without Scotland would turn them into Welsh nationalists overnight. As part of its survey of how last week’s events in Brussels have left the UK’s economic and political interests, the Financial Times includes a warning of ‘the pinched politics of nationalist delusion’. English nationalist delusion is what’s in the author’s sights.'
It is some comfort to politics watchers that there are signs of life in Cardiff Bay at least, but maybe not intelligent life.
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