A Change of Personnel

'The Welsh Economy Slips, but London Cushions the Fall'

2012-01-30T12:30:00.000Z

The title is a New York Times article on the Welsh economy published last week and it compares Wales to Greece, whether you agree with the premise the article it also underlines the deep rooted problems of the Welsh economy and reinforces a view from outside Wales about our economy that refuses to dissipate, despite both Government’s introducing things like Enterprise Zones and receiving reports such as the High Street renewal from the Business and Enterprise Committee and Micro Business report from the Task and Finish Group last week.

It also puts into focus the lack of new ideas from any party on how to stop the seemingly inevitable economic decline of so many communities across Wales.

Further update on Naz Malik and AWEMA

2012-01-25T16:31:00.002Z

For the third week in a row since the Naz Malik and AWEMA scandal broke, questions from the Opposition were raised about the Welsh Government’s response to them and the tardiness of the investigation into the wide ranging allegations in the Senedd yesterday.

Since the exchanges last week between Peter Black, Rhodri Glyn Thomas, Jane Hutt and Cawryn Jones, the Big Lottery Fund has suspended further payments to AWEMA until the investigation is complete, which begs the questions why the Welsh European Funding Office and Welsh Government are still paying money to AWEMA and why Naz Malik remains in post and hasn’t been suspended until the investigations have concluded.

Peter Black raised a number of additional points yesterday that make you wonder what's actually happening, for example he stated no interviews with staff appear to have taken place and there are concerns over the security of documentation. It makes you suspicious that nothing will result from this especially as Dragon’s Eye had an investigation into similar financial problems back in 2003 and Naz Malik remains in post – is this what's making Labour drag its heels and hoping this will go away?

The Full exchanges from Assembly Business Questions are below

Peter Black: Minister, I press you once again for a statement on the situation regarding the investigation into the All Wales Ethnic Minority Association. I have had communication with some AWEMA partners and they are worried about the length of time that this investigation is taking; that is having an impact on partner organisations in relation to the European projects in which they are engaged with AWEMA. Also, some of the staff who signed the original letter regarding this organisation have not been interviewed by anyone, and concerns have been expressed to me about the security of documentation relating to this investigation and whether or not that was made secure before officials went in to investigate. Will you give me some assurances that this investigation is moving ahead at full speed, that those members, and former members of staff, who have an interest and knowledge of this organisation will be interviewed as soon as possible, that all actions have been taken to secure documentation relating to this investigation, and that the partners of AWEMA, in terms of European funding, are being assured as to the future of those projects?

Jane Hutt: I can assure Peter Black that we recognise the importance of this investigation, which I am monitoring very closely, ensuring that it is rigorous and that it includes the Welsh European Funding Office and the Big Lottery Fund. I will certainly be reporting back directly to those who have an interest, in terms of constituency and wider policy matters, and to the whole Assembly on the outcome of this investigation.

The full transcript of yesterday's session in the Senedd Chamber is HERE

Finally media coverage remains patchy but BBC Wales reported on the story last week and the Swansea Evening Post had an article on the weekend.

UPDATE
If you didn’t see Dragon’s Eye last night it’s on the iplayer until next Thursday (2nd Feb), but what does it say about our political system that it takes a media investigation rather than the calls from the Opposition before the Welsh Government acts over such serious allegations and although the suspension of funds is welcome, reading between the lines from last night’s programme Naz Malik expects to be cleared if he’s expecting to be talking to the press after the investigation is completed – so it looks like all the effort has been in vain yet again.

Micro Business report - will it make any difference?

2012-01-24T15:05:00.000Z

With the drama following Peacocks going into administration and the latest unemployment figures, Business Minister Edwina’s Hart’s report launch last Wednesday (18th Jan) on Micro Businesses, from one of the Task and Finish Groups focusing on certain sectors of the economy in the much heralded ‘new’ approach to the economy went largely unreported.

As the report states with Microbusinesses, defined as employing less than 9 people make up 94.5% of all business in Wales and with the European Commission report showing 85% of new job growth across the continent from 2002 – 2010 came from SME’s which doesn’t take a genius to work out this should be the main priority for Business Minister Edwina Hart and her department, if not the whole government.

So does it address the issues Welsh micro business face, well the report identifies five priority areas of support, these are

Awareness and access of business support services for Micro Business

Access to finance

Mentoring and coaching

Public Sector Procurement

Regulatory burden

However all of these at one stage or another have been suggested by economic and financial experts and written in Welsh Government and Committee reports for the last 12 years, but no concrete action has been taken by any Welsh Minister of any stripe.

Are we really supposed to believe that a Business Minister who is on record as saying she regrets capitalism will be the one who actually implements these proposals such as cutting red tape, making public sector contracts more accessible to smaller firms and improving access to finance which could support substantial job growth and create a larger private sector - I doubt it, which is a shame for the many struggling entrepreneurs and business people up and down Wales who need support after all they are responsible for 33.2% of private sector employment in Wales or 331,400 jobs.

The full report is HERE

Peacocks and the Welsh press

2012-01-22T19:30:00.002Z

The demise of Peacocks and the 249 staff made redundant was a sorry site last week coming just a day after official unemployment figures showed a small decrease in those unemployed in Wales, but this post isn’t going over the wreckage and playing the blame game, it one that fits into bug bear I have and have blogged about many times, the lack of a decent Welsh press or in this case a Welsh business press.

Because it wasn’t just Peacock whose woes were exposed too late in the day for anyone in Government or the company to actually do something constructive last week, how many people know that the Swansea to Cork Ferry service is in trouble and will cease sailing in over a week if a solution can’t be found to its financial woes and given the current climate and Bank intransigence I bet they aren’t alone sadly.

A good Business Editor or journalist could easily have seen the warning signs and flagged up issues a few months ago at Peacocks and the Ferry company, instead of what we had in Peacocks case, the main stream media highlighting the story less than a few days before the company filed for administration. The Swansea to Cork ferry story only seems to have made the South Wales Evening Post on Friday the 13th February.

The companies in question might not have liked it, but it would have given them and the UK and Welsh Government’s more time to try and solve some of the issues they face and put more pressure on the Banks and kept workers in jobs at a time when jobs in Wales are proving to be as rare as Hen’s teeth.

A decent Business media would also have consistently exposed the fraud and corruption of the likes of Naz Malik at organisations like AWEMA and pushed harder for answers over how European money has been spent.

If Wales is to have a healthier relationship with the private sector and become a better place to invest and grow business and explain the Welsh and UK Government’s role in the economy to voters then a robust business press needs support, here’s hoping someone takes up the challenge.

Update on Naz Malik and AWEMA

2012-01-18T15:25:00.002Z

Yesterday in the Senedd Chamber during questions to Jane Hutt, Plaid Cymru’s Rhodri Glyn Thomas and Lib Dem Peter Black asked for updates on the investigation into Naz Malik the Chief Executive of AWEMA and although Jane Hutt couldn’t go into details, her answers revealed the scale of the investigation taking place into the allegations made against him, with the Welsh Government involved along with European funding body WEFO, the Big Lottery Fund and South Wales Police.

The full exchanges from the record are below

Rhodri Glyn Thomas: You were in the Chamber earlier when I asked the First Minister about the inquiry into the All-Wales Ethnic Minorities Association, specifically the Government’s confidence in the ability of the association and its chief executive, Nas Malik, to be responsible for European projects worth £8.4 million. I would have expected to see a timetable for such an inquiry, with a date for its conclusion and for a decision to be made. Can you give an assurance that there will be space on the Assembly’s schedule for the First Minister to inform Members about the Government’s confidence in this association’s ability to undertake this work, together with the other important work that it is undertaking.

Jane Hutt: I can give Rhodri Glyn Thomas and the Assembly an assurance that that will happen.

Peter Black: I would like to raise the inquiry mentioned by Rhodri Glyn Thomas regarding AWEMA. You have said that you will provide time for a statement. Do you have any idea of the timescale for this inquiry, and roughly when the statement will come before us? It is important that those who have a stake in AWEMA, and those who depend, in particular, on the European funding that is being given to it, have an idea as to when that will be resolved.

Jane Hutt: I very much appreciate the concerns that have been raised by Peter Black and Rhodri Glyn Thomas in terms of a timeline for the investigation in relation to AWEMA. I assure Members that the Welsh Government, including the Welsh European Funding Office, are co-ordinating an investigation, along with the Big Lottery Fund. It is also important to recognise that Welsh Government officials have been liaising with South Wales Police regarding the allegations. Therefore, you will appreciate that it would be inappropriate for me to comment further at this time.

The initial exchange between Rhodri Glyn Thomas and Carwyn Jones at FMQ’s is below

Rhodri Glyn Thomas: First Minister, I asked you a question last week about the internal inquiry into the All Wales Ethnic Minority Association. I asked you specifically whether you now had confidence in the ability of that association and its chief executive to be responsible for European projects worth £8.4 million. You acknowledged that the allegations against the chief executive, Naz Malik, were serious, and said that an inquiry was under way. However, you did not say when you would be able to make an announcement in this Chamber to Assembly Members about those projects. Can you enlighten us about that this afternoon?

The First Minister: I cannot give a date, but a review is under way. The allegations are very serious, and it is very important indeed that everything is reviewed so that the public can have confidence in this organisation in the future.

The full record from yesterday in the Senedd is here

UPDATE

In another twist the man who blew the whistle on Naz Malik’s financial affairs has been suspended from AWEMA, while Naz Malik remains in post.

AWEMA was also advertising for 3 new staff funded by the Big Lottery Fund the closing date was last week, do the Big Lottery know about the Welsh Governments investigation?

Naz Malik was nominated as a torch bearer for the Olympic relay by his daughter, more from Jac o the North

Have Plaid Cymru got a plan or not?

2012-01-18T00:12:00.000Z

Plaid Cymru’s review of what went wrong last May and what to do next seems to have achieved the opposite of what it was intended to do, it’s given the other parties lots of sticks to beat them with and confirmed old prejudices along the way, while at the same time the report doesn't provide an overall coherent plan for reviving the party under a new leader, just ideas for members to debate further.

Leanne Wood, Elin Jones, Simon Thomas and Dafydd Elis Thomas could be forgiven for reading the 95 recommendations in the 80 page report in the days ahead and having a few second thoughts about why they decided to stand for the leadership after the party grandees aired so much of the party’s dirty laundry in public yesterday, putting Plaid Cymru on the back foot weeks before one of them is due to take over and has to immediately energize the party in the Council election campaign.

Carwyn, UKTI and Wales Investment

2012-01-15T18:25:00.001Z

First Minister Carwyn’s Jones latest thoughts on the future of the UK debate were unveiled in his Sunday Politics interview and he stated the case of Wales benefiting from inward investment from the UK overseas trade body UKTI as one of many reasons to keep the UK together.

A few things struck me about the statement, it sounds like a reasonable point until you realise that inward investment for Wales, like Scotland and regions of England was mainly handled by the Regional Development agencies for years and now in Wales’s case the Welsh Government since Rhodri Morgan's 'Bonfire of the Quangos' for starters.

Furthermore Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru between them have presided over the abolition of the Welsh Development Agency, arguably the most successful development agency in Europe and is successor International Business Wales which was abolished after an expenses scandal. And since taking its functions ‘in house’ the Welsh Government has a poor record of securing jobs and investment for Wales as the Jaguar LandRover deal recently showed and its own figures and GVA have consistently proved over the past 5 years.

Not forgetting the relationship between Welsh Economic Development Ministers and UK Ministers has been frosty to say the least, with both sides ignoring or dismissing each others claims and counter claims over the Welsh economy since devolution began back in 1999. So it’s certainly stretching credibility to say that a relationship like that fully benefits Wales or the Welsh economy.

And finally as is so often the case with Welsh journalists they failed to follow up and ask Carwyn to justify his claims about how Wales benefits from UKTI which could well be correct and so your average viewer simply takes the First Minister’s words at face value – not a healthy situation for engaging voters with Welsh politics more regularly.

On a slightly different point I’m glad I’m not the only one who thinks Carwyn is exploiting this for his own ends as Duncan Reynolds states ‘With House of Lords reform back on the political agenda, Mr Jones chose a good time to air his thoughts, however I do not believe that they are the right way to be looking at the possible independence of Scotland, especially as only 30% of the Scottish population currently desire full removal from the union. The issues of timing, phrasing, number of options and possible outcomes in terms of economics whatever the referendum produces are the major issues at this time.’

BIC meeting highlights Carwyn’s lack of economic ambition

2012-01-13T18:05:00.000Z

Today the British Irish Council met for the 17th Annual gathering in Dublin today, not that you would know it from the Welsh press or the Welsh Government.

The Guardian had a live blog from the meeting and full details are here

No surprises that it was the ongoing clashes between the UK Government and Alex Salmond over independence that dominated the pre and post summit headlines, but Carwyn Jones apparently told the press conference after the meeting that if Scotland left the UK then a Convention would be needed to stop England dominating Wales and Northern Ireland.

However it’s his pre summit statement that shows his lack of leadership on economic matters yet again he wanted to focus on Youth unemployment, a worthy topic but his statement is more politicking than policy.

“There is no escaping that the economy and youth unemployment are common challenges for all the nations of these islands and this meeting gives us an opportunity to share our experiences of addressing these issues.

“My government sees tackling youth unemployment as one of our major priorities. The levels of unemployment we are seeing amongst young people in Wales are totally unacceptable. That is why we have created employment programmes to support young people to gain valuable work experience; we are increasing the number of Apprentices and investing in skills.

“As part of the global economy Wales is not immune to the turmoil we currently see. The troubles of the Eurozone, combined with the policy direction taken by the UK Government are hitting job creation. The number of people unemployed continues to grow, the jobs we need for our young people are simply not there.

We are not seeing the private sector producing the level of jobs needed to fill the gap created by job losses in the public sector resulting from the UK Government’s decisions on fiscal policy.

“Whitehall’s approach to the European Union is also a concern – I do not want to see the UK isolated when it comes to the economic future of Europe. Being a strong, engaged member of the European Union is vital for Welsh jobs and the continued attraction of investment. '

The Scottish First Minister in contrast was thinking bigger on the economy in its pre summit statement said "Before Christmas, I called for a UK jobs summit led by the finance ministers of the four UK administrations to agree a programme of immediate employment creation. However, this call has not been acted upon.

We will therefore raise with the Deputy Prime Minister at the British-Irish Council the issue of employment and economic growth

"Despite severe cuts from Westminster, we still have higher employment in Scotland compared to the UK. The UK Government needs to embrace a Plan Mac-B approach, based on the Scottish experience of increased public investment to create more jobs and growth, otherwise we will be left trying to mitigate against their flawed economic policy.

"Scotland has also seen a series of positive jobs announcements from major companies in recent months, but more needs to be done, particularly to tackle the scourge of youth unemployment. This is precisely why I appointed the first dedicated Minister for Youth Employment in the UK last month.

"A lot of excellent work has already been done and we are committed to creating 25,000 modern apprenticeship opportunities this year and in each year of this parliament.'

More from RTE News on the Irish perspective of the meeting here here

‘Full investigation’ by Welsh Government into All Wales Ethnic Minority Association'

2012-01-11T14:06:00.002Z

From the Western Mail today

First Minister Carwyn Jones told AMs yesterday a full investigation was under way by the Welsh Government into Wales’ foremost charity representing ethnic minorities.

Last week the Western Mail revealed that Naz Malik, the chief executive of the All Wales Ethnic Minority Association (Awema), had been disciplined after admitting using more than £9,000 of the charity’s money to pay off a credit card debt. He said he regarded the money as an advance on his expenses.

An inquiry by an independent investigator suggested Awema was an organisation mired in nepotism, with Mr Malik’s daughter and daughter-in-law also working for it in senior roles, and his wife and son as volunteers.

The Swansea-based body has been awarded £8.4m of public money under the European aid programme for Wales to run projects aimed at improving the employment prospects of people from ethnic minority communities.

Yesterday Plaid Cymru AM Rhodri Glyn Thomas said to Mr Jones during First Minister’s Questions: “I trust you’ve had an opportunity to read the report which has resulted from the inquiry into the management of that organisation. Normally I wouldn’t ask you to comment on such organisations or the individuals involved in them, but in this case, this particular association does manage £8.4m of Euro
projects.

“Can you tell us this afternoon First Minister, do you still have confidence in the ability of the association to manage these projects and specifically its chief executive, Naz Malik?”

Mr Jones said: “The allegations are serious, a full investigation is taking place and we will comment once that investigation has concluded.”

There is still nothing from BBC Wales or ITV Wales on this matter.

UPDATE

Here’s the brief exchanges on Nas Malik in the Senedd from the Record of Proceedings at yesterdays at FMQ’s, the First Minister could hardly disagree or object to an investigation without looking shifty, but his answer to the question is weak and the need to contain and bury the story seems to be uppermost in Labour minds as opposed to doing what right and getting answers to this whole sorry mess.

Rhodri Glyn Thomas: You will be aware that concerns have been raised and, indeed, serious allegations made about the management of the All Wales Ethnic Minority Association. I trust that you have had an opportunity to read the report, which has resulted from the inquiry into the management of that organisation. Normally, I would not ask you to comment on such organisations, or individuals involved in them, but, in this case, this particular association manages £8.4 million in European projects. Can you tell us this afternoon, First Minister, whether you still have confidence in the ability of the association to manage those projects, and specifically, in its chief executive, Naz Malik?

The First Minister: The allegations are serious. A full investigation is taking place and we will comment once that investigation is concluded.

The full record of yesterday FMQ's is here

AWEMA Boss under fire and difficult questions for Labour

2012-01-09T00:20:00.000Z

I spend a lot of time criticizing the ever dwindling Welsh press, but they can occasionally make a useful contribution to public life by exposing the rampant cronyism, nepotism and fraud that exists in Wales and so often goes unchecked and unreported unlike the Walesonline report which highlights some serious financial irregularities at the All Wales Ethnic Minority Association by its Chief Executive Nas Malik among other things.

The article states he used public money to pay off his credit card, he paid a life insurance policy in his wife’s name and employing his daughter and other family members and paid them substantial salaries.

The article goes on to say Nas Malik has been accused of bullying, intimidation and sexual harassment and increasing his own salary and benefit package without any openness or transparency and more in an internal AWEMA report which concluded with legal advice there was enough evidence of financial foul play to pass the details to South Wales police’s economic crime Unit.

Lib Dems AM Peter Black has apparently asked the Welsh Auditor General to look into the financial irregularities and let’s hope the Opposition doesn’t let Labour off the hook on this and allow them to sweep this under the carpet as usual.

As for Carwyn and his Government what have they got to say on this matter and more importantly what are they gonna do about this seen as Mr Malik is a Labour Party member and is also damaging the reputation of Welsh charities and third sector organizations who are actually doing vital work in these recessionary times.

There’s more from Valleys Mam and Jac o North

Where’s Carwyn’s New Year Message to Wales?

2012-01-04T15:30:00.001Z

We are four days into the New Year and facing if the economic forecasters are right an even grimmer 2012 than 2011, so in response to this uncertainly both David Cameron and Alex Salmond have delivered official Prime Ministerial and Scottish First Ministerial cautiously, upbeat messages for voters about what they and their government’s intend to do to ease the pain as it were and the positive things about Scotland and the UK.

The only thing we have had from Carwyn so far is this from the IWA’s Click on Wales blog last week, it’s part of a series that all four party leaders were asked to submit. Our First Ministers’ piece is entitled ‘Wales must remain an integral part of the EU’ and given the revelations today by Plaid Cymru about the First Minister overstating the EU’s importance to Welsh business in his recent letter to David Cameron his article already looks hollow and self serving.

The First Minister and his Government surely has some good news about its performance over the past few months that it could reinforce in an Official message as well as take the opportunity to calm some worried Welsh nerves.

But they seem oblivious to the benefits of it in Cardiff Bay, now compare that article to Alex Salmond in his video message below, whatever your politics you would have to admit that he looks and sounds like a leader, not a caretaker like Carwyn.

Labour endorsing Leanne?

2012-01-03T13:31:00.002Z

Happy New Year/ Blwyddyn Newydd Dda

With nominations opening for the Plaid Cymru leadership today the phoney war can finally end and the four contenders Elin Jones, Simon Thomas, Dafydd Elis Thomas and Leanne Wood can finally start campaigning in earnest for the party leadership.

And in every leadership contest beside the appeal to party members, the battle for public opinion is as crucial, and everyone has a view on who the best candidate is and who will win, including the other parties, who will want to define all four candidates to the public before they get a chance to do in on their own terms in the weeks ahead.

So right on cue the Labour Party leadership over the weekend seems to have decided that Leanne Wood is the most serious threat to their hegemony and has declared her a maverick and far to the left or your average Welsh voter - who knew.

Whatever happens Labour has nailed it colours to the mast early and will hope that it can influence Plaid members enough to give it what it wants, an easy ride in the short term and a potential new coalition partner longer term.

The response is a pretty lazy caricature of Leanne, her views on certain issues don’t chime with mainstream admittedly, but you could say that about AM's and MP's from all parties and besides how many people know Carwyn Jones is also a republican and at the first opening of the Assembly refused to stand for the toast to the Queen when so many of his Labour colleague were happy to do so. Did the Labour hierarchy call Carwyn a student politician and accuse him of not representing the good people of Bridgend at the time, of course not, that sanctimonious hypocrisy is only reserved for non Labour folk.

And the lengthy intervention in the Western Mail also told us that Labour is more alert and willing to act against threats to its position, than it is to tackle the social and economic problems facing families and communities across Wales – so nothing new there then.

2012 will be a year like most others in Welsh politics, lots of heat and little light generated as the country continues to fall further behind the rest of the UK and Welsh voters keep endorsing that failure at Council and Welsh Assembly level.

A brawl in Bethlehem for Christmas

2011-12-29T23:37:00.000Z

So much for the season of goodwill to all in the holy land, as Armenian and Greek priests and monks in the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem had a punch up a yesterday ago over cleaning the church in time for Orthodox Christmas celebrations in the new year.

"It was a trivial problem that... occurs every year," Bethlehem police Lt-Col Khaled al-Tamimi told Reuters.

Al Jazeera takes up the story

More details on the goings on from the BBC here

Merry Christmas

2011-12-24T00:35:00.000Z

To all my readers have a restful Christmas, Nadolig llawen

‘But Wales is a land where nothing succeeds like failure’

2011-12-20T00:37:00.000Z

The quote sums up Wales perfectly, failure has been the defining narrative of Wales and welsh politics for so long we’ve forgotten what success is or that there is even an alternative to the endless misery. But saddest of all is the knowledge that it won’t change because those who fail Wales time and again are continually rewarded by the electorate.

The quote was from Adam Price’s Western Mail article on Saturday about the state of the Welsh economy and picked up on these themes

He writes ‘The conventional narrative is to see this as part of a century-long process of economic decline as oil replaced coal as the dominant energy source worldwide.

While this is undoubtedly a big part of our history, the Welsh economy managed to recover from the deep trauma of the inter-war years and by the 1970s and ’80s had stabilised around 85% of UK output per capita.

As can be seen from the chart (inset) the slide into the low 70s is a recent phenomenon which has little directly to do with coal as most of the industry had already disappeared to all intents and purposes by the time it had begun.

Looking back, the ’70s and ’80s were in actual fact a period when the Welsh economy held its own with the rest of the UK.

It’s only in the last two decades that the familiar story of Welsh decline has emerged with a vengeance.

In the 20 years to 1990, Welsh output per head grew by 46.3%, just 1% shy of the UK figure.

In the two decades since then Welsh prosperity has grown by 20 percentage points less, while the UK has continued to lodge a perfectly respectable figure of 42%.

Something really big and really awful has happened to our economy, but we seem to have adopted an air of quiet acceptance. The Welsh Government once had a target of reaching 90% of UK GVA by 2010. We missed by 16%.

One might have expected a resignation or two.

But Wales is a land where nothing succeeds like failure.

While all around have been losing theirs, a Labour First Minister’s job seems even more secure than ever.

And when Carwyn warns of the dangers of a race to the bottom if Wales is given the power to vary corporation tax, he can be pretty sure that no-one around him will have the temerity to point out it’s a race we’ve already won.'

TIME Person of the Year 2011 – the Protestor

2011-12-18T13:50:00.000Z

It’s perhaps fitting that at a time when leadership around the globe in politics, business and elsewhere is proving so ineffectual in the face of the multiple challenges the world faces that TIME Magazine chose the generic protestor as its 2011 person of the year rather than a political leader or business person.

From the Guardian 'As Time's editor, Rick Stengel, argues, to celebrate the protester is to defend the idea "that individual action can bring collective, colossal change". This collectivity has spread like wildfire in the last year or so – each protest, revolution and occupation triggering new uprisings against state oppression, class inequality and police brutality. "From the Arab spring to Athens, from Occupy Wall Street to Moscow" declares the Time cover, with Stengel pointing out "the word protest has appeared in newspapers and online exponentially more this past year than at any other time in history".

But how to represent this collective subject, to give a face to this global anger? It is hard for the media and the state to forsake their need to celebrate (and punish) charismatic figureheads, especially when it comes to protest movements. But the anonymity, the leaderlessness (which is not to say structurelessness) of many of the global protests are indications of their strength and of their mass character.'

A video report from Alan Fisher of Al Jazeera is here

So did TIME get it right and if not who would you chose as Person of the Year 2011?

The Annual Welsh GVA post (with unemployment update)

2011-12-14T13:37:00.002Z

It’s just over a week to Christmas, the Assembly is in recess, so it must be a good time to publish the annual GVA figures for Wales making sure they get lost in the pre Christmas noise and sparing Welsh Minister’s having to answer awkward questions about why they are so bad and why Wales remains at the bottom of the heap again.

So what do they say, little different from previous years unfortunately, there has been some bounce back from the recession, but Welsh GVA for 2010 was still 0.3% down from 2009 figures to now stand at 74.0%.

The key points from the latest release are:

Total headline GVA in Wales in 2010 was £45.5 billion, up 3.5 per cent on 2009, GVA for the UK (excluding extra-regio) rose by 3.2 per cent.

Headline GVA per head in Wales in 2010 was £15,145, up 3.3 per cent on 2009, whilst GVA per head for the UK (excluding extra-regio) rose by 2.4 per cent.

GVA per head in Wales in 2010 was 74.0 per cent of the UK average, the lowest amongst the devolved countries and English regions.

The NUTS2 estimates for 2009 show headline GVA per head in East Wales and West Wales and the Valleys at 91.4 per cent and 62.8 per cent of the UK average respectively.

The Government will no doubt focus on the increased output from 2009 and say things are moving in the right direction, however 2009 was when the UK and Wales was in a brutal recession which means much of the 2010 increase in making up the lost capacity which is positive but the Welsh economy remains on life support and both Government’s need to be more proactive to help create jobs and secure investment.

Yes the folks in Cardiff Bay are constrained by what they can do but the GVA figures combined with today’s unemployment news that 11,000 more people are out of work and the unemployment rate stands 9.1% should be the catalyst for action not more hand wringing.

As for actual data, we are a few weeks from 2012 and today’s figures cover 2010, that’s right they are already more than a year out of date. So how can anyone from investors to business and voters take the Welsh Government seriously on economic matters when it doesn’t take the economy seriously itself and refuses to publish more up to date economic data despite regional Governments in Scotland and Catatonia managing to?

‘The UK without Scotland would turn them into Welsh nationalists overnight’

2011-12-14T00:30:00.000Z

Fascinating insight in to Carwyn Jones and his teams thinking about David Cameron’s veto and of the potential of Scotland leaving the UK from Nick Powell over at ITV Blog

He writes ‘Of course in Scotland the First Minister is the SNP leader, Alex Salmond. Far from being committed the United Kingdom, Mr Salmond is planning a referendum on Scottish independence. At his press conference to explain his letter, Carwyn Jones said that was a particular concern:

‘In pandering to a relatively small number of Euro-sceptics, [David Cameron risks]
I think in Scotland, where public opinion is particularly pro-European, [that] people are going to ask themselves whether they want to be in the EU or the UK. I think that’s unhelpful for those of us who want to see the UK continue’.

So I asked him what Wales should do if Scotland does leave the UK:

‘We can’t carry on as we are now. The UK couldn’t just carry on with a bit of it gone. There would have to be a convention between England, Wales and Northern Ireland to discuss what the shape of the future state would be’.

It’s one thing to raise the spectre of Scotland leaving the UK as part of his latest row with the Prime Minister. It’s quite another for the First Minister to reveal that he’s thinking about how Wales should respond to such a momentous development. But what would happen if there was no renegotiation of offer, just a continuation of the present UK minus Scotland? It would presumably have to have a new name, ‘the United Kingdom of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland’ or ‘Ukipia’ has already been mischievously suggested.

Some close to the thinking at the top of the Welsh government have been warning privately for some time that although their preference is for ever-deepening devolution partnered with Europe’s ever-closer union, the idea of England dominating the UK without Scotland would turn them into Welsh nationalists overnight. As part of its survey of how last week’s events in Brussels have left the UK’s economic and political interests, the Financial Times includes a warning of ‘the pinched politics of nationalist delusion’. English nationalist delusion is what’s in the author’s sights.'

It is some comfort to politics watchers that there are signs of life in Cardiff Bay at least, but maybe not intelligent life.

Where does the Treaty veto and changes leave Wales?

2011-12-09T17:18:00.004Z

I’m not an expert on EU matters, but last night’s veto is significant whatever side of the argument you’re on over Europe and it certainly has the potential to impact UK domestic politics in a big way over the coming months and years, especially on the future of Union between Scotland and England.

Wales in constitutional legal terms is of course part of England and our devolution still lags behind Scotland and Northern Ireland, however Europe and the EU are relevant to our day to day lives even if we don’t acknowledge it or discuss it that often and three areas come to mind specifically when thinking about Wales, Europe and the EU.

First Europe remains our largest export market, second our farmer’s get significant EU subsidies from the Common Agricultural Policy and of lastly the latest round of EU Convergence money (which could be the last whatever the state of the welsh economy next time) to help revive an economy that’s in intensive care.

How will these things be affected if Britain loses influence in EU discussions and does anyone in Wales political class grasp the fact we should be more proactive on the potential fallout – I seriously doubt it.

After all the Welsh Government Ministers have little enough say over EU matters that affect Wales before today’s but now with Britain looking in from the outside things could get trickier. Contrast that with Scotland where the debate on Cameron's veto is in full swing today and Kenny Farquharson Deputy Editor of the Scotland of Sunday newspaper has already called the veto a ‘game changer’ ahead of the SNP's proposed independence referendum. There is of course no reporting on how it will affect in Wales despite the EU story being the biggest around at the moment which tells its own story.

Politics in the UK and EU will change after last night events but not immediately, so where are the Welsh leaders when you need them to stand up for Wales’s interests today, in recess until the new year that’s where. And our First Minister is too busy politicking and grandstanding over the Autumn budget with the UK Government – just like Cameron and Co in Brussels over the Treaty changes last night.

Fiery exchanges at last FMQ’s before Christmas

2011-12-08T15:01:00.000Z

Here’s the transcript from Tuesday’s FMQ’s, exchange between the party leaders it’s not quite as dramatic in print but you get the gist.

The Leader of the Opposition (Andrew R.T. Davies): First Minister, we had a referendum last March on further law-making powers for this institution. You said then that the point of the referendum was to give us the tools to do the job. Seven months after the election, we have had only one piece of legislation to scrutinise in Plenary. In your legislative statement, you promised that there would be three by December. In Scotland, six Bills have come before the Parliament. Why, therefore, has your Government been so slow in bringing legislation forward?

The First Minister: We have published a detailed legislative programme, which contains a number of Bills that will be taken through during the course of this Assembly

Andrew R.T. Davies: First Minister, the question that I asked you was why you have been so slow in bringing them forward. According to the timetable for your own legislative programme, you were due to bring three Bills to Plenary by December, but we have received only one, which was presented last week. However, that is not the only area in which your Government has been slow to act. We have a review into microbusinesses, business rates, and another into city status. You supposedly went before the people of Wales in May this year with the most comprehensive manifesto—those were your words, not mine—that had been put before the people of Wales. However, all you seem to be doing is reviewing, dithering and delaying. Why are you keeping Welsh businesses waiting?

The First Minister: He seems to forget the £55 million that has been invested in small and medium-sized enterprises in Wales, the £90 million in a centrally retained capital fund, and the £1.4 billion that was announced yesterday for schools. Every time we come to the Chamber, the leader of the opposition continues with his line about health and the alleged £1 billion gap, which is something that his party used during the election campaign in May. However, despite spending twice as much as the party on this side of the Chamber, his party was still unsuccessful. When will he learn that he needs to be more than a one-trick pony?

Andrew R.T. Davies: First Minister, I have not mentioned health in the two questions that I put to you, but I am glad that you have mentioned health, because the health boards have indicated that there will be a £50 million deficit at the end of this financial year. Waiting times are going up. Therefore, if you want to talk about health, I am quite happy to do so time and again. I notice that there are representatives from the Royal College of Nursing in the public gallery. That organisation has noted that over half of its members wish to leave the Welsh NHS. [Interruption.]

Andrew R.T. Davies: Why, First Minister, are you like the proverbial bad workman, who blames his tools for doing such a poor job? It is time that you acted and showed leadership in order to lead the people of Wales

The First Minister: I will tell the leader of the opposition something: his party’s mantra, which he keeps repeating in the Chamber, cost the health spokesperson of his party his job when he lost his seat in May. I know that that was an advantage to him, because he finds himself where he is now. However, let me give him a challenge: one of the reasons why nurses in Wales are so worried is because of his party’s desire to cut the pay of nurses in Wales, thereby ensuring that nurses in Wales are paid less to do exactly the same job as those in England. This is something that was announced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer last week. I ask him now whether he will condemn the Chancellor of the Exchequer, stand up for Welsh nurses, and will he ensure that Welsh nurses are paid the same as every other nurse in the UK? [Interruption.]

The Presiding Officer: Order. You have had three questions. [Interruption.] Order. Will you please quieten down and listen to the leader of Plaid Cymru, Ieuan Wyn Jones?

The Leader of Plaid Cymru (Ieuan Wyn Jones): Yes, you might learn something by doing so. [Laughter.]

First Minister, as you know, during the current comprehensive spending review period, the Welsh block grant will reduce by 11.3 per cent, or, in real terms, £1.9 billion. We know that the Wales Audit Office has indicated that, as a result of those cuts, 21,000 jobs will be lost in the public sector in Wales. We know that, as a result of the economic crisis worsening since May, thousands more jobs will be lost in the private sector. If that was not bad enough, the autumn statement added even more gloom to the doom. First Minister, what assessment have you made in relation to the announcement of further public spending cuts by the Chancellor last week?

The First Minister: One problem that we have is that we still do not know what the revenue consequentials of the statement will be. The UK Government cannot tell us. We have asked and asked the Treasury, but it seems unable to tell us how much will accrue, in terms of revenue consequentials, to Wales. I do not know whether the Treasury knows itself where the money is coming from. That is obviously holding us back.

In terms of investment in jobs, we have the £38.9 million consequential following the announcement on the freezing of council tax in England, the £90 million that was announced as part of the centrally retained capital fund, the £55 million that is going directly to small and medium-sized enterprises as a result of the announcement made by the Minister for Business, Enterprise, Technology and Science, and the £1.4 billion that was announced for schools yesterday. That is a substantial investment in the future of Wales, and it will help to retain and create many jobs.

Ieuan Wyn Jones: Of course, the £1.4 billion that was announced yesterday still depends on local authorities putting forward business cases for their schools. If those business cases are not satisfactory, the work will not go ahead. I believe that that is the position with regard to yesterday’s statement. The question that I asked you, First Minister, was this: what is the impact on Wales from the public spending cuts announced in the autumn statement? The Chancellor said in the statement that there would be further, substantial cuts to public spending in Wales in 2015 and 2016. He is saying that they will be on the same scale as the cuts that we have already faced. Therefore, in addition to the £1.9 billion that we have already lost as a result of the current cuts, we will lose another £800 million in 2015 and 2016. What assessment have you made of the impact of those cuts on your policies?

The First Minister: There is no doubt that there will be a negative impact. The leader of Plaid Cymru is correct in his assertions regarding the cuts that will be made to the Welsh budget over the next few years. It is true to say that, despite the efforts that this Government will make to reduce poverty, we are fighting against a tide coming the other way, from the Chancellor of the Exchequer. I come back to the point about regional pay. It was quite clear last week that the objective of the Chancellor of the Exchequer is to ensure that people in Wales and some parts of England are paid less to do the same jobs as people in the south-east of England. That is unfair and inequitable, and something that we will fight tooth and nail on these benches.

Ieuan Wyn Jones: One way of approaching the cuts is to blame Westminster, which you have done. However, you also have a responsibility, because you are the First Minister of Wales. You said in the election that you would stand up for the people of Wales, but we have not seen much evidence of that so far. First Minister, as you have probably noticed, I have been questioning you every week on the economy, and I have been astonished and surprised at your Government’s failure to grasp the enormity of the crisis facing us. Let us try to put this in a nutshell. The Welsh economy will grow more slowly than at any time since the nineteenth century. Families will suffer job losses on a scale not seen since the 1980s. Our children and grandchildren will not have the life chances that we have had. Is it not time that we had a bold, ambitious and innovative Government fighting for the people of Wales? Does this exist within you, First Minister?

The First Minister: The leader of Plaid Cymru seems oblivious to the fact that £1.5 billion has been announced in support for business and jobs. I have already given him the opportunity to listen to what I just said. The reality of the situation is that there is a budget before the Assembly this afternoon for jobs and growth. I offer him the opportunity to move away from the place to which he has led his party, which will be voting with the Tories this afternoon. I can promise that I will take every opportunity, as will my party, to remind the people of Wales that, when the chips are down, Plaid will side with the Tories. [Interruption.]

The Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats (Kirsty Williams): First Minister, at the weekend, Sir Mansel Aylward, senior adviser to the NHS in Wales, said that he was 'depressed and disappointed’ at the limited progress of change that the health service had achieved in the past few years. Do you agree with him?

The First Minister: No; I think that the health service in Wales has moved forward and continues to provide an excellent service to the people

Kirsty Williams First Minister, Sir Mansel went on to say that 'in the past we had plenty of money and perhaps we spent it wrongly’. Now, when money is tight, his warning is stark: he says that, without reform,'the richer would get better...the poorer would get poorer and their health would deteriorate’.

If statements like that do not inject a sense of urgency into the Welsh Government about reforming our health service, what will?

The First Minister: I see no evidence to support that, and I am not sure what you mean by 'reform’. If you mean reform along the lines of what is happening in England, I can tell you that we are not going to do that; that is not what the people of Wales voted for in May. Of course, we want to ensure that the health service delivers as locally and as effectively as possible, and that is what we will be looking to do over the course of the next year.

Kirsty Williams: What Professor Aylward is saying is that poor public services do poor people down the most. First Minister, this is not the first warning of this kind from a senior adviser; back in 2004, Sir Derek Wanless was commissioned by the then Minister for health to write a report on the state of the NHS in Wales. He said that things needed to change. He said then that
to write a report on the state of the NHS in Wales. He said that things needed to change. He said then that 'Wales does not get as much out of its spending as it should’.

He said then that' there is unacceptable variation in performance between NHS trusts’.He said then that' the overall conclusion is that the current position’in the Welsh NHS 'is not sustainable’.

That was almost a decade ago. He also concluded that every person and every organisation had a leadership role to play. Is it not time that you, as First Minister, and your Government, showed some leadership in protecting the services that the most vulnerable in our society depend on most?

The First Minister: If it were true that the NHS was unsustainable 10 years ago, it would not be here now. Clearly, that is not correct. We have a fine record on the NHS: waiting lists are dropping, and when it comes to treatment, we do not have any hidden waiting lists, as has been admitted by the UK Government. We have a proud record of being able to provide a holistic service for our people, including free prescriptions, which we will keep. I do not believe that there is any evidence to suggest that the NHS is unsustainable now, just as I do not believe that there was any evidence to suggest that, 10 years ago, it would become unsustainable over the course of a decade.

The Great British Property Scandal – get homes back in use campaign

2011-12-06T14:45:00.001Z

I don’t normally flag this type of TV campaign up but getting empty houses back in use and families re-housed is worthwhile and Wales is in desperate need of family homes given the sluggishness of both Government's on the matter over the years.

The campaign also has the added advantage of targeting devolved Minster’s and Welsh MP’s as well as the Prime Minister and UK Ministers over housing policy.

One of the main ideas to emerge from George Clarke of Restoration Man fame is the creation of a cheap loan scheme to enable local authorities and private landlords carry out refurbishments to empty houses to get them in liveable standards which enables tenants to live in a better home and have a lower rent.

Yes such a scheme would be open to abuse by bad landlords, but so are most things if you’re that way inclined but it shouldn’t stop people trying.

If you want to sign the petition that will go among other to Carwyn Jones it’s here and the campaign video and website is here

The second programme is on Channel 4 tonight at 9pm and the first programme is on 4oD catch up service.

Five ideas from the IPPR North to stimulate growth in at risk UK regions

2011-12-01T00:30:00.000Z

The Institute of Public Policy Research North as part of its response before the UK Government’s autumn statement on Tuesday released a scary set of figures showing that the North of England, the West Midlands and Wales are unlikely to see a return to pre recession levels of employment until after 2020.

Also included was a prediction that Wales would be the only part of the UK with less jobs and lower employment after 2020, it’s another warning for our politicians that something radical needs to change before our problem s become irreversible.

The briefing also includes 5 recommendations for jobs and growth for hard hit areas, they are

A targeted jobs guarantee: a job paid at the minimum wage or above, to anyone who has been unemployed and claiming JSA for more than 12 consecutive months targeted to the worst affected areas.

Innovation clusters: these should be in specific places and focus around renewable energy; advanced manufacturing: health and medical; nuclear; marine and ports.

Capital allowance concessions: government should introduce targeted tax incentives such as higher research and development tax credits and increased capital allowances for specific areas of investment and innovation.

Bring forward capital spending on infrastructure projects including the Northern Hub transport development.

A regional investment bank: focused on investment in innovation and small and medium-sized businesses.

The ideas are hardly radical and have in other forms been suggested by people in Wales before, so will any of our AM’s and Political parties pick up on this as a starting point for debating where Wales go next?

Which brings me to the other issue that’s bothering me about the briefing, it highlights the lack of a non political response from any Welsh Think Tank or Welsh University about what the statement on Tuesday meant for Wales, especially as most acknowledge the main economic levers are elsewhere?

I mean where was the economic and social critique of how the Chancellor’s statement will affect businesses, public services, employment and unemployment and the level of income squeeze that people are feeling either before the statement or after George Osborne’s statement Tuesday? And suggestion of what the Welsh Government and other agencies could do to ease the pain?

Surely there is the capability in Wales for a more intelligent and imaginative in our policy making to tackle these challenges.

More from BBC Wales here

Bleak news made worse by an intransigent Welsh Government

2011-11-29T20:05:00.002Z

Chancellor George Osborne’s autumn statement today was grim indeed, the UK economy is barely growing and public sector jobs losses are going to be around 300,000 more than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted in the UK Coalitions budget. Add to that the global outlook is deteriorating and apart from a few baubles like the broadband money for Cardiff and about £300 million in Barnett consequential Wales has fared pretty badly.

The Chancellor did talk about a possible deal over the Severn Bridge tolls and a throw away line about M4 congestion but nothing concrete, as ever the devil is in the detail but at least both Government are talking about it, so lets hope something comes of it.

What this means for Wales, well outwardly the Labour Welsh Government will rail against the public sector wage cuts and the introduction of regional pay awards and feign concern at the impact of the cuts to tax credits that will hit Welsh families hard, but they will be pleased that the Tories and Lib Dems haven’t relented from the tough deficit reduction approach which will distract from their own ideologically driven action of half baked measures for the Welsh economy and their intransigence over growing the private sector to help cushion the blow from the public sector fall out.

In light of the statement the deal on the budget last week between Labour and the Lib Dems looks pretty irrlelevant, the Welsh government’s budget is almost unchanged and the economic stimulus (listed below) will do little to create jobs or give families and business hope that things will get better. The £216 million extra for capital spending is welcome but is more than likely to be wasted on Ministerial pet projects .

Carwyn and Edwina’s stimulus package comprises of the following

Young Recruits Programme – this is an extension of the existing scheme to provide financial support to eligible employers who can offer a high quality apprenticeship programme. We have allocated £0.65m in 2011-12 and £4.23m in 2012-13. This will fund an additional 800 apprenticeships in 2011-12 and a further 1000 apprenticeships in 2012-13.

Skills Growth Wales – this programme builds on the success of ProAct, providing support to companies that plan to expand their workforce and require financial assistance to make this possible. It complements Jobs Growth Wales. We have allocated an additional £3m for 2012-13 which will help assist 1,200 people.

Capital Investment in Schools – this provides support to local authority and Further Education Institutions’ capital maintenance programmes, pending long-term capital investment via the 21st Century Schools Programme. We have allocated an additional £9.26m in 2011-12 and this investment will be pan Wales.

Ely Mill Housing Project – the Welsh Government will invest £5m in 2011-12 and a further £1m in 2012-13 to assist the remediation work on the 50 acre site required to allow a broad partnership to deliver a mix of affordable and market housing over the next four to five years. The project will create up to 200 jobs per annum, starting in the second half of 2012.

Arbed – additional investment of £3m will expand the projects offered through the Community Energy Saving Programme in 2011-12. This will deliver whole-house, area-based improvements in the energy performance of homes in the most deprived communities throughout Wales.

Social Housing – this project will deliver an additional 130 affordable homes pan-Wales. It will lever in private finance, and we have allocated £9.26m in 2011-12.

Enterprise Zones - £3.5m investment in 2011-12 will support road enhancements required to secure the right platform for growth in the private sector. It will deliver construction jobs for the specific project as well as facilitating further jobs through the Enterprise Zone once it becomes operational.

You can bet Alex Salmond, Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness will be fighting any changes to Scotland and Northern Ireland budgets tooth and nail, while Carwyn and his Ministers have already shown they are more interested in scoring points against the ‘baby eaters and their little helpers’ in London instead of as they promised in May's elections standing up for Wales. It makes you wonder if the electorate will ever learn to stop trusting Labour unquestioningly?

Lib Dem opportunism strikes again

2011-11-25T21:15:00.002Z

So after all the bluff and counter bluff of the past few months a deal to pass the Welsh budget is done and Labour First Minister Carwyn Jones must be breathing a sigh of relief that the Liberal Democrats have got him out of the hole he found himself in over his negotiations tactics.

The pupil premium is a worthy policy and sorting out school funding is important, but as Education Minister Leighton Andrew said last night on Sharp End Blaenau Gwent Council spends the most per pupil in Wales and is currently in special measures, so let’s hope the Lib Dems have got something about accountability of the extra cash in the small print of the deal and as Betsan Powys reminds us the Budget is virtually unchanged by these concessions.

Today’s news has also been seized on by Lib Dems at a UK level to try and help detoxify the brand after a bruising time in government since last May, but the question of whether it will be enough to blunt the sell outs and Tories little helpers jibes and sway welsh voters to back Kirsty and her party’s in the local elections next year is unclear, at least their candidates now have an a reply of what are they for.

As for Labour they will be pleased a deal has been done, but where this leaves their constant criticism of the UK Government and its acceptance of a second ‘ConDem policy’ the pupil premium (after Enterprise Zones) following a deal with one of the UK Coalition partners is anyone's guess, it certainly rings hollow and hardly fits the left wing radical image they like to portray but it’s doubtful it will do any long term damage mores the pity.

And how irritated will Labour members be ahead of next year’s local council elections that a deal has been done with the Lib Dems their major opponents in so many council seats?

As for Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives they may feel pretty miffed tonight at being left out of a deal, but neither should feel too bad, unless the Chancellor pulls a rabbit out of his hat next week the economy and job situation will get worse and as cuts bite the Welsh Government’s budget will come under ever more scrutiny over claims of protecting Wales. That will provide an opportunity for Plaid and the Tories to remind everyone of the issues they raised in budget negotiations the state of the economy and the funding of the health service which will certainly resonate with voters and dominate welsh political debate for the foreseeable future.

Vanished Kingdoms the History of half forgotten Europe

2011-11-23T16:37:00.001Z

The title is a new book from Professor and historian Norman Davies who explores Europe’s lost kingdoms including 'the Empire of Aragon' which once dominated the western Mediterranean; the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, for a time the largest country in Europe; the successive kingdoms (and one duchy) of Burgundy, but from a Welsh perspective 'Kingdom of the Rock' in what is now modern day Strathclyde in Scotland is what catches the eye and despite the book being finished some time ago he has some interesting things to say about the current European crisis and its effects on the future of United Kingdom.

Norman Davies spoke to Vaughan Roderick on BBC Wales Sunday Supplement about 20 mins in and is available till Sunday morning (27th November).

He has also given an interview to the Browser Magazine and here’s the part on Wales and the UK 'Whether by military defeat or political decline, if a state vanishes that doesn’t necessarily mean that its identity vanishes with it. The people and culture remain, surely?

That’s a good question. When the Visigoths were defeated, how many stayed behind to serve the Franks? The identity of a state is very fluid, and a lot depends on the fate of the people – what happens to the people when one country is conquered by another. Anglo-Saxon England is a perfect example. Before the Anglo-Saxons came there was no England. They came into Roman Britannia and they took over the lands of Britain. They slaughtered and drove out British leaders. The story is that the British retreated and made the Western peninsula their home – what we now call Wales. And it now seems that the Welsh founded Glasgow.

I’ve heard about this. What is this story?

You see, the whole of our island used to be Celtic, British. There were no Anglo-Saxons until they came over the sea. The Scots came from Ireland and gradually took over the north of the island, which we now call Scotland. Scotland was formed in the ninth century. The Anglo-Saxons came over from the east and they created England.

But before Scotland or England existed, there were a number of false Roman native kingdoms of which the culture and civilisation was Celtic, or what the English called Welsh – which is a very nasty word, meaning alien. The Germanic peoples, who couldn’t talk with these Celts, called them Welsh – aliens. And the indigenous population of the region where Glasgow is – Strathclyde, as it’s called now – was Welsh. The chief hero of medieval Scotland was William Wallace. Wallace means Welsh. The Scots don’t tell you that. They had this theory that William Wallace’s family came from Shropshire, which is how they try to explain how a Welshman could be in what they thought of as Scotland. They didn’t know that these Welsh of the north were not intruders from Wales, they were there long before the Scots.

The book is available from Amazon and other retailers.

'Wales needs to be smarter with EU funding says MEP'

2011-11-22T00:18:00.000Z

Here’s an interesting 9 mins from Welsh Tory MEP Kay Swinburne talking to the Europe and You website last month about the impact of Wales qualifying for new convergence funds and urging all those involved to fully capitalise on the new round of funds. She also talks about using the European Research Fund and European Social Funds alongside the Convergence Funds to make the money go further and work harder.

Kay also stresses the need to get business involved in design and delivery and spending of the new European Funds to have a longer term benefits for Wales and to get politicians and the Welsh European Funding Office to be bolder is making the case to the powers that be in Europe so we can be more flexible over what the money is spent on in Wales as they have done in Ireland for example.

Of course none of what Kay says is new or hasn’t been said before many times by others during the last two allocations of European money to Wales, but at least it being reported and maybe it will encourage others to voice their support for the ideas so those in charge actually make decisions that benefit communities up and down Wales rather than the usual suspects.

There link above also features a few other videos on Wales, European funding and EU issues affecting Wales if you're interested.

‘Hart talks up £55m fund for jobs but its months away’

2011-11-18T00:11:00.000Z

Wednesday saw Wales’ unemployment figures climb to an eye watering 137,000 or 9.3% of the workforce, more than at the height of the last recession in 2009 but still less than the highs of the 1980’s, the outlook is grim indeed.

The UK Government is unlikely to do anything significant in his Autumn statement to help, so the poor souls are relying on the Welsh Government and Business for answers, so Edwina Hart our Business Minister announced a loan scheme and grants support totaling £55million to coincide with the release of the UK and Welsh unemployment figures.

The threadbare Welsh Business press duly reported the scheme and business leaders were quoted as being pleased with new money and return to grants, however it took until today for both to mention that the cash wont be available until 2012 in the Western Mail

‘David Russ, managing director at the of South Wales Chamber of Commerce, said the funding announcement was “fantastic” but the money was needed now.

He said: “The announcement that funds of £55m, in addition to the previously planned £75m Jobs Growth Wales fund, will be made available for businesses in Wales is fantastic news. We’re confident that financial support such as this will encourage growth, which will have a knock-on effect on employment.

“However, it’s regrettable that these measures won’t be brought in until 2012 at the earliest, as SMEs and the unemployed population need this help now. With this promised support still a while away, we hope that consumer confidence will be bolstered by the inflation drop.”

Phil Cooper, chief executive of business support agency Venture Wales, described the unemployment figures as “truly shocking” and called for investment in start-up businesses.

He said: “Start-ups and the micro firm sector have in the last eight years created more jobs than any other sector of the industrial landscape yet do not receive the support or funding that other higher profile areas receive.
“Even though the economy is flat there are many things which our Government could be doing to help create jobs by investing more in start up activities and helping smaller firms to grow which as a collective could tackle these worrying unemployment figures.”

And according to Valleys Mam we know that Edwina’s Business department already has a £50 million under spend for 2011 when the Welsh economy is in major crisis, welsh unemployment is rising and is already 17% higher than last year – is it too much for the press and opposition parties to ask questions and expose the sham in the Business Department over its ‘help’ for business.

Edwina Hart comments about regretting capitalism may have made people smile last week, but it seems her state focused approach and legendary control freakery is also denying money for investment and business growth, Wales can’t afford anymore regret so Carwyn and Edwina need to start delivering because sheltering Wales from the worst excesses of a Tory Government was after all was the main reason voters many backed devolution.

Richard Commission on Welsh legislative body and electing members

2011-11-16T12:45:00.000Z

After Labour’s decision to blow raspberries at democracy over the weekend, the First Minsters speech on devolution tests and the total lack of alternatives on how we make the system we elected our Assembly members by fair for all coming from any other parties, it’s worth remembering what the Richard Commission had to say on these matters back in 2004.

Their recommendations are on page 262 and state

that there should be a legislative Assembly for Wales on the model in Chapter 13;

in the interim, the framework delegated powers approach should be expanded as far as possible with the agreement of the UK Government
and Parliament;

that, if a legislative Assembly is constituted, it is desirable, though not essential, to confer tax-varying powers;

that to exercise primary powers the Assembly needs an increase in membership to 80 Members;

that the structure of the Assembly should be reconstituted with a separate legislature and executive;

that the present voting system cannot sustain an increase to 80 – the best alternative is the STV system;

these changes should be in place by 2011, or sooner if practicable.

They also laid out a plan for how a Welsh legislative body would look and what powers it would have, the option of tax varying powers is mentioned (page 250)

Box 13.5: A legislative Assembly for Wales

Wales Bill needed to amend Government of Wales Act and confer primary
law-making powers on the Assembly;

Bill specifies reserved matters (Westminster legislates); everything is
devolved to the Assembly unless specifically reserved;

reserved matters could include: the Constitution, defence, fiscal and
monetary policy, immigration and nationality, competition, monopolies and
mergers, employment legislation, most energy matters, railway services
(excluding grants), social security, elections arrangements (except local
elections), most company and commercial law, broadcasting, equal
opportunities, police and criminal justice;

devolved matters: the fields set out in Schedule 2 of Government of Wales
Act i.e. health, education and training, social services, housing, local
government, planning, culture, sport and recreation, the Welsh language,
ancient monuments and historic buildings, economic development, industry,
tourism, transport, highways, agriculture, fisheries, food, forestry,
environment, water and flood defence;

corporate body structure replaced with executive and legislature;

Assembly can construct its own rules of procedure and Standing Orders,
adopted by a majority of two thirds;

executive powers in a particular field can be devolved even if the Assembly
has no corresponding primary legislative powers;

Cardiff legislative programme might contain around four to six government
Bills a year;

change in Membership and electoral system;

option of tax-varying power.

New Blog Devolved Politics in the UK

2011-11-16T12:24:00.000Z

Here’s a new Cardiff journalist/blogger Tom Rouse reporting on politics in Cardiff and Edinburgh, his blog is called ‘Devolved Politics in the UK’

Welcome to the Welsh political blogosphere and make yourself at home.

His introduction post says ‘my focus in the past has too often been on Westminster and international events, despite the fascinating stories happening on our doorstep in Cardiff. The aim of this blog is to explore issues in devolved politics, in particular the divergence in policy between Westminster and the devolved administrations here in Cardiff and in Scotland. The recent Yes vote in the Welsh referendum has granted the Senedd new powers and a fascinating 12 months awaits us as we see the Labour administration come to grips with these new powers.’

'Disability Benefits: A 'Nasty Campaign'?'

2011-11-15T13:35:00.000Z

Thought this was worth sharing from Sky’s Boulton & Co blog on the changes to Disability Benefit and DWP’s manipulation of its own figures.

“Latest DWP stats show that only 6% of new Disability Living Allowance claimants last year (January to December 2010) had a face-to-face assessment with a healthcare professional.

"The vast majority (94%) of new claimants got the benefit without having any face-to-face assessment of their needs."

These are the opening lines of a Department for Work and Pensions release - the decision to put those words in bold was theirs not mine.

How do you interpret these statements? I wouldn't be surprised if you concluded 94% of claimants had no face-to-face assessment because that's exactly what it says.
But the rest of the release paints a more complex (or to be less diplomatic, potentially contradictory) picture.

It seems 42% of claimants had a statement from their GP verifying their medical condition; a further 36% submitted other sources of evidence, a category that can include reports by social workers or occupational therapists.

Surely a GP is a "healthcare professional"? And surely all these trained staff will have met the claimant in person? Does this not count as a form of assessment?

Apparently not.

The DWP's figures show 16% submitted a claim form alone.

And this could well be too many - the Government is under pressure to cut costs. Benefits of this sort cost a huge amount to the taxpayer. We know there are some liars and frauds who will lie to wrongly obtain cash.

But some have been quick to say there are some conditions so undeniable, further assessment isn't needed.

Ian Birrell, who has written at length about his daughter's "profound and multiple disabilities", wrote on Twitter this morning: "My daughter got DLA without an interview. But then she is unable to talk like many others with profound and multiple learning difficulties."

He said the forms are 38-pages long and accused the department of a "nasty campaign doing...the Government no favours".

It is worth noting this is not coming from someone generally anti-government: Birrell is friends with David Cameron, worked as his speechwriter and remains close to many in Downing Street.

I put my queries to a member of the DWP press office, who said the "healthcare professionals" mentioned was clearly a reference to the department's assessors (presumably Atos, paid £100m a year by DWP for this kind of work).

But is it clear? Is that what you assumed when you read those opening lines?
Secondly, she said the most critical issue was that of assessment - GP reports just note conditions; they do not assess the impact of it on the claimant's life.

This may be so, but I still think many (including GPs) will be surprised GPs are not classed as healthcare professionals by DWP and by the implication their reports need to be checked up on. If an official suspects more information is needed, they can presumably request it - that they authorised these requests would suggest they were satisfied with the claims made.

The press officer did not feel the sentences were misleading and felt it was obvious they referred to their specific assessors and their specific assessment.

She said the people who carry out the assessments are not only doctors registered with the General Medical Council but also have specialist training in assessing people with disabilities.

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Iain Duncan Smith is quoted on the release. "At the moment hundreds of millions of pounds are paid out in disability benefits to people who have simply filled out a form," he said.

"The vast majority of people are getting the benefit for life without regular checks to see if they are still eligible, or if their condition has worsened and they need increased support."

But have the "vast majority" really escaped all checks? And have those who "simply filled out a form" really cost "hundreds of millions"?

Yes, if you are taking into account the expense over many years, but the DWP figures show the cost of new claimants who really did just fill in the form last year was a smaller, but not insignificant, £30m.

Ambiguous language from DWP or, as Birrell suggests, a "campaign" and a nasty one at that?

The original post and comments are here

Moving the Agenda On

2011-11-14T13:16:00.001Z

So Peter Hain has got his way and Carwyn Jones and the Labour Party (aside from a few AM's) have backed plans to get rid of the proportional element in Assembly election system ensuring a return to uninterrupted Labour only rule in the National Assembly (if it ever went away).

The statement came in response to the equally disingenuous UK Government plans to redraw constituency boundaries to ensure an equal number of voters in each constituency across the UK giving the Conservatives a better chance of a majority in the House of Commons. The proposals affect the Assembly elections because the number of Welsh MP’s will be reduced and the boundaries are coterminous and used for Welsh Assembly elections which are currently 40 FPTP and 20 regional list members.

But aside from the shameless self interest and politicking on show from all sides the timing is interesting, call me cynical but this has moved the welsh political agenda on nicely after a week of unwanted headlines, spin and accusations for Labour over the stalled draft budget talks that have got the First Minister and his minority Government genuinely worried.

The lack of votes for Carwyn’s draft budget isn’t gonna change because Labour big wigs trotted out the tripe they did over the weekend and could alienate the Opposition Parties, it may please Labour grassroots but the Welsh Government should be concentrating on doing its job and not playing into the Welsh Assembly’s critics who are growing in number.

Andrew’s first victory?

2011-11-11T12:35:00.000Z

Plaid Cymru leader Ieuan Wyn Jones has rightly been making headlines this week for his full on assault of the First Minister Carwyn Jones and Welsh Government over the economy, but there was another equally newsworthy event this week’s with the decision of the three opposition parties to stand firm over changing the draft budget to better reflect voters concerns in their opinion. Conventional wisdom says one party will eventually do a deal, but could one of the main beneficiaries from the new tactic be one of the other opposition leaders Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies?.

When Andrew RT Davies was elected leader it was said by many political commentators, media types and bloggers that he would find it difficult to make alliances with Plaid Cymru and Lib Dems unlike his predecessor Nick Bourne and this would play into Labour hands causing rifts between the opposition parties and giving the Welsh Government a free ride for the next 5 years.

As things stand its First Minister Carwyn Jones who is the one under pressure as negotiations over the draft budget seem to be making little progress and deadlines loom and the opposition prove harder to buy off than in previous years, not the leader of the opposition who has had his critics inside and outside the Tory Party since he got the leaders job but the opposition amendment is a smart move and all three party leaders can take some credit.

It is of course early days and opposing a self interested Labour budget is at the easier end of the co-operation scale, but it shows that Andrew RT Davies is not as one dimensional as portrayed and after a shaky start has proven he can work constructively with Ieuan Wyn Jones and Lib Dem leader Kristy Williams which can only board well for holding Labour to account in the current Assembly term.

Plaid Cymru’s economic attack, FMQ’s and media shock

2011-11-09T17:00:00.002Z

I’m not sure whether it’s amusing or rather depressing to see the shock expressed by the Political Editor’s of BBC Wales and Wales Online about Ieuan Wyn Jones questions in the Chamber at FMQ’s claiming Labour is letting the worst of the UK’s economic policies bite while doing nothing to mitigate the damaging effects and claiming the political credit.

But in the cosseted world of Cardiff Bay politics a senior politician saying what the majority of people inside and outside Welsh politics believe is the Welsh Government strategy counts as big news it seems, whether it changes anything is of course a different matter but it’s been said and I doubt either side will row back from it.

The Welsh Government can’t do everything to stop the effects of public sector cuts and benefit changes, but where the attack is most potent is that Labour Ministers are dragging their heels over what they can do, even some in the Labour Party are getting fed up with the First Ministers lack of action and visibility over the problems facing Wales.

No surprise Labour is dismissive of Plaid’s attack claiming that Plaid Cymru is bitter and not adjusting to being in Opposition behind the Tories, as well as becoming irrelevant to the new two party consensus that is emerging (see Adrian Masters latest blog for more). But the response was telling Carwyn was more engaged and animated than normal.

However it must be said for all Plaid Cymru’s righteous fury their claims do ring a little hollow as they were in Coalition in the One Wales Government holding the economic portfolio up until May this year and will making such bold statements in public rule them out of being serious players in current budget negotiations that are in the balance with just 4 week left to strike a deal.

And for all the fuss generated at First Minister Questions on Tuesday and it was good to see Tory leader Andrew RT Davies landing telling blows on the NHS as well, this was a rarity, too many FMQ’s that go by where more heat than light is generated and Labour Ministers are let off the hook over failed polices and delivery as well as their claims of standing up for Wales.

For the Assembly to grow and gain respect this type of pressure needs to be administered by Ieuan, Andrew and Kristy week in week and then amplified by the Welsh media so us voters can believe that democracy is working, the Government is being properly held to account and it’s all worth the effort of supporting devolution in the face of growing apathy and indifference.

Finance Committee’s Budget Recommendations

2011-11-08T13:16:00.000Z

As one of the few Committees in the Assembly the Welsh Government takes notice of, it’s good to see the cross party Finance committee carrying on where it left off last term and highlighting the true nature of the Budget process and adding pressure to Labour Ministers to up their game over transparency, NHS funding, lack of targets, the need for a equality impact assessment and more.

The 10 recommendations they made are below and the full report is here

Recommendation 1. We recommend that the Welsh Government continues to work towards ensuring that the intended outcomes of public expenditure- and mechanisms for monitoring such- are consistently identified and published in a timely way that enables effective scrutiny of the sufficiency and value for money of the Welsh Government‘s budgetary proposals.

Recommendation 2. We recommend that in presenting future draft budgets, the Welsh Government provides detail of year-on-year proposed budgetary changes (using the figures from the previous financial year‘s most recent budget as a baseline).

Recommendation 3. We recommend that in presenting future draft budgets, the Welsh Government seeks to make all relevant and requested information on proposed budgetary allocations (including detail of proposed budgetary allocations within departments, such as BELs) available to National Assembly for Wales Committees, providing a sufficient level of detail for scrutiny in a consistent and co-ordinated manner, at the time of the draft budget‘s publication, or as close to it as reasonably possible.

Recommendation 4. We recommend that the Minister for Finance responds to the concerns of the Committees of the National Assembly for Wales, and takes on board the views of stakeholders, in order to improve the timeliness and level of detail published in the draft budget proposals, to enable more effective scrutiny of the budget proposals in relation to specific areas.

Recommendation 5. We recommend that the Welsh Government works expeditiously towards developing a strategic approach towards the utilisation of its capital resources, providing quarterly reports to the Finance Committee on its progress. We recommend that this should provide clarity on which elements of the Welsh Government‘s planned capital expenditure, and how it will be administered and monitored, are included within the National Infrastructure Plan, to enable scrutiny of such.

Recommendation 6. We recommend that the Welsh Government continues to explore all avenues for increasing and maximising capital funding opportunities and maximising the benefits for Wales. We anticipate this would include a robust analysis of both the short and long-term consequences for Wales of such mechanisms for increasing capital funding. We anticipate the Welsh Government would also provide us with quarterly reports on the matters raised in these recommendations.

Recommendation 7. We recommend that a full equality impact assessment is carried out for all proposed allocations within the Welsh Government‘s final budget. We anticipate this would be accompanied by an assessment of the budget‘s impact on the development of the Welsh Language.

Recommendation 8. We recommend that a full Sustainability Impact Assessment is carried out for all proposed allocations within the Welsh Government‘s final budget.

Recommendation 9. We recommend that the Welsh Government engages in dialogue with Local Health Boards to ensure that their service plans are finalised and made publically available as soon as possible, and that the Minister then reports on whether the funding available to Local Health Boards will be sufficient to deliver such plans

Recommendation 10. We recommend that the Welsh Government clarifies the role of its delivery unit in ensuring the delivery of the outcomes intended to be enabled by the draft budget. We anticipate this would include clarity of the role of the delivery unit in both monitoring the delivery of outcomes, and enabling appropriate action to be taken where outcomes are in danger of not being realised.

Signs of Change?

2011-11-07T15:32:00.001Z

I have spent a lot of time criticizing our new Business Minister Edwina Hart given her track record in other Welsh Government departments and I still have my doubts knowing her style whether she will be a force for good for Welsh Business, but two things have happened in the last few days that might give pause for thought at the very least and perhaps signals a change in attitude in the Business Department.

The first was the appointment of Professor Brian Morgan last week to head an inquiry into the Impact of Business Rates in Wales on behalf of the Business Minister and the second was a meeting today (7th Nov) between Edwina and Professor Dylan Jones Evans and some of the Fast Growth 50 winners from this year to discuss what both sides can do for the other.

Both Brian and Dylan have been heavily critical of the Welsh Government’s economic policies over the years as well as offering alternatives that have been ignored by successive Ministers, so it’s an interesting and welcome sight to see the new Welsh Business Minister turning to them for help and calling on their expertise to revive the Welsh economy.

It could of course be a ruse to keep them off the Welsh Governments back for a while as economic data gets steadily worse, but if both sides can see a benefit from working together then long term Wales will benefit and in these grim economic times it’s something we should all be grateful for.

Welsh Labour, Benefits and welfare reform

2011-11-03T00:32:00.000Z

First Minister Carwyn Jones has been stating the obvious at in speech at a welfare to work conference in Cardiff, he said that as a result of the significant changes made to the benefit system and the Welsh populations disproportionate reliance on them that the poorest and going to be hit hardest.

The consequences for the poorest are awful and should concern us all and it certainly doesn’t excuse the UK Coalitions zeal on welfare reform and demonizing the poorest in the process, but you have got to admire the nerve of Labour politicians, particularly in Wales for the faux outrage at the situation many are faced with. Why because the majority of changes particularly on Incapacity Benefit and Job Seekers Allowance were already in the pipeline or underway agreed by Labour Ministers before the Tories and Lib Dems were elected last May. Does anyone remember any Welsh Labour people raising concerns before the election, no me either, although other Welsh politicians did.

Its good that Carwyn is at least sounding like leader, but his words wouldn’t sound so hollow if you believed that he and his new Government were trying and mitigate the worst effects of what was coming from the UK Government both by lobbying the DWP and using the powers they have to improve the lives of those at the bottom of the pile instead of playing politics, letting the worst happen and claiming the inevitable political benefit afterwards.

But that’s a sideshow on the benefit and welfare front, you have to wonder if Welsh politicians understand the landscape of welfare to work after devolution, because Carwyn also trotted out the old favourite that Welfare isn’t devolved and therefore the Welsh Government has no say in it. Maybe he and his advisors should go and talk to the two providers Working Links and Rehab Jobfit who were chosen to deliver the UK Government new back to work scheme, the Work Programme and ask about how many of the Welsh Government’s services and policies from skills and education to health and childcare impact directly on their delivery of welfare to work delivery in Wales post devolution. I think most of the public including Welsh Government Ministers would be surprised at the cross over between service delivery.

Populist rhetoric on nasty Tories and their Lib Dems helpers may score some good headlines and make Labour activists happy, but if the if the Labour Welsh Government really wants to save the worst off from the excess of the Coalition's benefit reductions, it could do worse than talk to the Welsh welfare to work providers and use the Welsh Government’s considerable powers in areas like health, education and the voluntary sector to develop policies that help get more people into work and lessen their dependency on benefits. It’s worth thinking about at the very least even though it’s unlikely to gain traction.

"The Ballad of Russell and Julie" Wrap Party Special

2011-11-01T14:06:00.000Z

With so much grim news around here’s something a little lighter from David Tennant, Catherine Tate and John Barrowman paying tribute the Russell T Davies and Julie Gardner for bringing back Doctor Who – enjoy

Here’s to the Crazy Ones

2011-10-31T13:35:00.000Z

Hat Tip Wales Home

This is inspiring and makes you wonder where are Wales’s Crazy Ones because we wont move forward without them.

The Baroness, her low key lecture and the press

2011-10-28T00:32:00.000+01:00

This is my third post in less than a fortnight on the state of the Welsh media, I didn’t plan it but if the Welsh Government are to gain respect and be more accountable we need a stronger media to hold them to account and I won’t get tired of saying so.

Thanks to Syniadau and Welsh Ramblings I found out that Eluned Morgan now a Baroness and former Labour MEP gave the inaugural Patrick Hannan lecture last week on the subject of Labour and Welsh devolution.

The lecture made a few headlines about the need for Labour to engage with business but that’s about it it seems to have passed most people by, but anyone with basic knowledge of Welsh devolution, never mind Patrick Hannan's journalistic instincts could have driven a coach and horses through the rest of the inconsistencies and frankly laughable claims that Eluned Morgan made about Labour and its attitude to devolution in Wales. I never knew she had such a soft spot for Neil Kinnock either.

I also didn't know whether to laugh or cry on her claims about Labour needing to engage with Welsh business and the private sector, there were caveats of course about Trade Union involvement and references to Ed Miliband’s good and bad companies, but why didn’t any journalist ask Eluned what took her so long to come to that conclusion and what would Wales be like now if Labour had come to that conclusion 30 or 40 years ago? At least in the same passage she acknowledged that Labour has been openly hostile and suspicious of the private sector in Wales and Wales is the poorer in many ways as a result.

What’s also striking is that if this type of lecture was at UK or even Scottish level there it would have been on mainstream TV not tucked away on Sunday afternoon radio as was the case with this and the lack of visibility made sure there was no debate and discussion among the politicians, media and commentariat about what it all meant and what impact it would have on day to day politics if any.

But this is no surprise here in Wales where very few are interested in politics, devolution or economic matters in part because there is so little coverage of any of them, nowhere in the paid Welsh media has there been any critique of the lecture, which has big implications for the Labour Party and us whether we vote for them or not, rather than just reporting on it.

And it’s a theme Eluned picked up on when she said that Patrick Hannan and his type of probing journalism is a loss to Wales. She didn’t mention the lack of probing is one of the reasons why Labour keeps getting away with switching positions for electoral gain because no one has the credibility, the reach or guts to call Labour out on it – voters deserve better from the press.

'Growth plan should include temporary halt to public sector job cuts,' CIPD

2011-10-27T14:30:00.000+01:00

With the UK government unlikely to change course on public sector cuts and the UK private sector struggling to create jobs along with the Welsh Government's reluctance to at least try and re-balance the Welsh economy and continually blaming the Tories for everything, the Chartered Institute of Personnel Development’s call earlier this month for a temporary freeze to public sector job cuts as part of a growth package will go unheeded despite the need for alternative economic ideas and the fact it could ease the pressure on employees worried about their jobs and job seekers in a tough jobs market.

Dr John Philpott, Chief Economic Adviser at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD)said 'With the economy and labour market in such a fragile condition, it is worrying that public sector job losses are turning out to be much greater than ministers have previously been suggesting. Public sector job cuts in this context are a false economy, adding to unemployment and in turn hindering rather than helping the task of fiscal deficit reduction. A more sensible course would be to delay public sector job cuts to the end of this Parliament and if necessary into the next, thereby enabling them to be absorbed more easily without nasty macroeconomic side-effects. The Government’s plan for growth must rightly contain measures to stimulate private sector job creation but the Chancellor should also avoid the own goal of cutting public sector jobs at a time of high and rising unemployment.'

Wales this Week on European funding in Wales

2011-10-25T23:25:00.000+01:00

It’s good to see the Welsh media is taking a more critical look at the impact of European funds on the Welsh economy and what other countries have spent their money on and if you haven’t seen this week’s ITV Wales’s Wales this Week its worth checking out.

It’s a small step and perhaps recognition that the Welsh media has been prone to reproducing Welsh Government propaganda on the Welsh economy for too long rather than questioning decisions and offering at least some basic analysis.

However we should welcome this new found interest and hope its the start of a period of a more in-depth analysis and reporting from the Welsh media on the state and performance of Welsh economy. It can help inform and reach a wider audience especially when combined with BBC Wales’s announcement during its shake up that they are creating an Economic Correspondents post, which will hopefully help in explain the ebb and flow of the Welsh economy, where Wales economic strengths and weakness lie, what power the Welsh Government, local government and associated agencies have to improve things and what they can do to improve things and how those efforts fit into the wider UK, European and global economy to help Wales grow.

The need for a Welsh media has never been stronger

2011-10-18T12:16:00.003+01:00

Before I go any further this isn’t a wallowing post following defeat or a nationalist call to arms, I was thinking the same last week amid the hype ahead of the semi final match last Saturday.

The Welsh Rugby’s team performances in New Zealand have been great to watch and lifted our spirits at a time when things at home have been pretty grim, however much of the deserved credit Warren Gatland and his team have received and the hype surrounding them has been generated by media in other countries enjoying our boys playing rugby and with pages and air time to fill and added to that the limited and threadbare nature of the Welsh media which struggled to be heard.

Why does this matter I hear you say as long as the stories are being written and Wales is getting exposure, because our attitude, expectations, sentiments and emotions both last week in the build up to the match and this week in defeat have been shaped by editors and journalists in UK and global media who either aren’t from Wales or who don’t know enough about Wales to be more objective and realistic. It may sound glib but where was the balance nowhere did I see (except in French papers) from sports journalists and pundits (including Welsh ones) the merest hint that Wales could lose on Saturday, it was all about destiny and being written in the stars that we would be in the final. The reality sadly was somewhat different.

Welsh confidence is a brittle thing at the best of time and we don’t have many opportunities to stand on a global stage and remind the world where Wales is and as a result when these opportunities come we aren’t fully prepared for them. A stronger Welsh media giving us Welsh a truer picture of ourselves for good and bad day in and day out might have curbed the excess of the extreme highs of last week and extreme lows this last week that many of us feel.

I have written many times of the need to strengthen the welsh media particularly in relation to politics and the economy which most people have little interest in. Maybe we stand a better chance of change after the rugby hysteria of the past weeks and the cuts to BBC Wales because a stronger Welsh media would also make us more rounded individuals in a less chippy nation.

21,000 job losses is bad news because there are no alternatives

2011-10-17T10:50:00.000+01:00

Whatever your thoughts on the public versus private sector debate in Wales the news from the Wales Audit Office last Friday that 21,000 public sector jobs are expected to be lost by 2014/5 as a result of the UK Government’s cuts is more grim news for the Welsh economy at a time when Welsh unemployment already stands at 9%, job creation in Wales was negative in the last quarter and JSA claims have risen for the last three months in a row.

But it also highlights the big gaps that will be left because of a lack of job creation in alternative employment outside the public sector in lots of towns and cities around Wales.

Even if we had a Welsh Government that wanted to try and reboot and re-balance the Welsh economy to create jobs and wealth it would be a bumpy rise and take a generation or so to start bearing fruit and the report from the Welsh Audit Office could have been the start of a wider debate on what sort of economy we wanted, how we deliver public services and what type of private sector we want, but it won’t happen despite the fact things will never change if we don’t at least have the debate.

Sadly it will be used by the Labour Government and the three opposition parties in Cardiff Bay for some cheap point scoring and I told you so’s in the months and years ahead as the fallout from the cuts continues to hit their constituents which is a shame as this is an opportunity to reshape the debate and prove that welsh politics isn't stick in a 1980’s time warp.

Wales and European Funds – same story, different date

2011-10-14T00:36:00.001+01:00

Dragons Eye reported tonight that despite billions of pounds of of European structural funds pumped into the welsh economy that GDP has fallen – it’s not news, this has been the story ever since Wales was first awarded Objective 1 money in 1998 because parts of Wales were so poor compared to the rest of Europe.

Aside from BBC Wales only interviewing one of Wales 4 MEP’s about the new figures that show Wales is in line for more money, Labour’s Derek Vaughan does get some credit for not being a total one eyed drone and acknowledging that Objective 1 money was badly misspent unlike his Welsh Ministerial colleagues, who despite hard facts and a wealth of evidence are still in denial that anything was wrong then or now with the priorities, management and spending of Objective 1 and its successor Convergence funds in west Wales and the valleys over the past decade or so.

But whatever fairy stories the Welsh government and their officials are telling the European Commission about the success of European funds because all we have is praise from the grey suits in Brussels over WEFO and the Welsh governments performance, they aren’t fooling everyone back home in Wales.

The figures would be bad enough normally, but with the cuts back to Welsh Government budgets this is money that Wales can ill afford to be squandered on pet projects, vested interests and Ministerial whims, it would be good to think that lessons are being learned and politicians and officials will adapt, but it’s doubtful.

When Wales qualified for the first round of objective one money a colleague said that it was the equivalent of winning the booby prize in raffle – now parts of Wales are in line to qualify for a third round European money its shameful.

Its also no coincidence with these new figures on the failure of European finding and welsh unemployment now standing at 131,000 or 9% of the workforce that the First Minister and other Welsh politicians want to keep voters focused on the Rugby World Cup instead of the pitiful state of the economy.

UPDATE Dylan Jones Evans has a very interesting post on the matter also

A Global Irish Economic Forum to help with recovery – what about a Welsh one?

2011-10-07T15:31:00.000+01:00

In Dublin Castle this weekend there is a large gathering of the Irish Diaspora, but this is not for a trip down memory lane or to enjoy the craic of the Irish capital, the ex pats are in Dublin for the second Global Irish Economic Forum hosted by the Irish Government.

It’s aim is looking at ways in which the Irish Diaspora, or those with an connection to Ireland can contribute to Ireland’s economic recovery by exploring new ideas for generating wealth, as well as securing foreign investment and job creation.

The Forum was set up in 2009 by the Irish Foreign Ministry in the middle of the economic storm Ireland found itself in after the global recession and banking collapse and the achievements while not spectacular have borne significant fruit in terms of inwards investment and Irish exports.

Initiatives such as increased its investment in Silicon Valley. Since the holding of the first Global Irish Economic Forum in Farmleigh in 2009, funding of $502,648 has been granted to Irish Technology Leadership Group by the Department of Foreign Affairs, towards the establishment of a secretariat and to develop and expand the organisation‟s activities.

There are of course significant differences between the Welsh and Irish Governments, their status, willingness to act and what they are able to do in terms of economic development of course, but even the establishment of a global economic welsh network by the Welsh Government to help co-ordinate the Welsh Diaspora in business, technology, cultural and sport to help promote Wales around the world would be significant and extremely beneficial to a failing welsh economy.

But do we have anyone with the vision in Cardiff Bay to grasp the idea and make something like this a reality; I sincerely doubt it which is a real shame for Wales.

What does £40 million buy you?

2011-10-05T00:21:00.000+01:00

George Osborne announced a freeze in Council Tax in England for this year in his conference speech earlier this week and as a result the Welsh Government will get around £40 million as a result of the Barnett consequential. The rather crass way it was announced got backs up as did David Cameron, George Osborne, Cheryl Gillan and the Welsh Tories suggesting that Carwyn Jones government should follow suit.

Which means Carwyn won’t freeze Welsh council tax for the very reason why the UK Government will freeze it in England namely political advantage and besides it’s another opportunity for Welsh Ministers to show local government whose boss by denying them the extra cash.

There is another more pressing reason for the reluctance to follow suit and that is Budget votes, Ministers are calculating why help struggling middle income families in Wales that Labour aren’t very keen on anyway, when they can cheaply buy one of the Opposition Parties with money that is only available for this financial year. And like the Programme for Government last week, the draft budget is highly political and threadbare and dressed up in grand ideas of growth and skills that the media have swallowed whole once again.

Politics aside I would freeze council tax and help ease the pressure on family finances now, because the alternative is the Welsh Government putting the cash into a Ministerial pet project or propping up one of their vested interest rather than investing in something that might actually help.

Covering FMQ’s Scottish style – will Wales follow suit?

2011-09-30T15:31:00.000+01:00

It’s a fact that most of the public aren’t interested in Welsh politics or take much notice of what goes on in Cardiff Bay and Wales isn’t alone the same is true across the rest of the UK, so the weekly First or Prime Ministers Questions is a rare opportunity for politics and politicians to connect with voters.

Westminster and Edinburgh have a natural advantage in that there are considerably more broadcast and print journalists covering UK and Scottish politics which means that larger numbers of people are likely to hear about what’s going on in the respective Parliaments especially for the weekly show piece events.

But the latest service from BBC Scotland in relation to Scottish FMQ’s, a rolling update on BBC pages of what is being asked and the First Minister’s responses to the questions as well as additional information, is a template that BBC Wales could easily follow.

It would have a few advantages in helping update and inform those interested in FMQ’s but not able to access TV coverage, it would raise the profile of what is going on in the Assembly Chamber every Tuesday afternoon especially since the new legislative powers were acquired back in May and the Welsh Government laid out its Programme for Government last week and keep the First Minister on his toes.

Admittedly Scottish politics is more dynamic and has wider significance to the UK than Welsh politics at the moment but MSP’s still ask Alex Salmond about education, health, economic development, policing and rural and environmental matters as AM’s as Carwyn Jones so why not think about it.

Challenging the narrative

2011-09-28T00:05:00.000+01:00

h/t David Cornock

Hywel Williams take on Welsh leaders and the Gleision mining tragedy doesn’t pull its punches and on the day after the Welsh Government outlined it’s Programme for Government his final paragraphs have a real resonance on the consequences of those failures by the Welsh political class over the years.

'The limp sentiment that 'a sense of community still survives' is really just a reflection of the fact that no one knows what to do with large areas of industrial Wales. Those tightly terraced villages came into existence to serve just one purpose- the housing needs of those who worked in the pits. Now that coal has gone nothing really has taken its place. Development agencies and light engineering plants come- and then go- talking of little apart from grants given and subsidies taken. This is a reflection of the larger picture in Wales- a country where a ruinous two-thirds of the national income is accounted for by government expenditure.

Having chosen to be governed locally by just one party for most of the twentieth century Wales has limped into the twenty-first century burdened by a public and official class which is bereft of ideas and ambition. Talk about the wonder that is 'community' is both banal and hypocritical. Those who indulge themselves in this way are comfortably placed public sector professionals who invoke the ghosts of the valleys of the past in order to avoid thinking about how to solve the catastrophe of the valleys of today. Communities - real and living ones-evolve in order to serve an outside purpose. Take that meaning away and all you end up with is a community centre, that infallible sign to a dead end.'

It's harsh but true because nothing will change, Labour will still be the largest party at the next Assembly elections in 2016, they will have the most Welsh MP’s even after the boundary changes and most pundits expect Labour to do very well in the local council elections next year. Carwyn’s new found talk of delivery is no more than spin his government couldn’t deliver a letter never mind decent jobs, a good education, an efficient health service or a better transport network for Wales and yet voters will continue to back Labour and the party will happily keep exploiting that fact.

Latest from the Arab Spring : Votes for Saudi Women

2011-09-26T21:46:00.000+01:00

It’s easy to be cynical about yesterday’s announcement from Saudi Arabia’s ageing ruler about granting women the vote, being allowed to stand as candidates in local elections and being selected to serve in the ruling Shura Council in four years, but in a deeply conservative country run by religious autocrats this is a significant step although more still needed to be done.

So why now, reports have said there has been significant lobbying by women in Saudi Arabia on a range of issues for change in recent months and despite the culture Saudi women aren’t as uneducated, downtrodden or sidelined as in other Islamic Middle Eastern countries – but the real reason is the Arab Spring, it is still alive and worrying the despots who after decades of brutal uncompromising rule are rattled enough to start conceding even a tiny amount in the hope it placates their populations and stop their regimes crumbling.

But there is still work to be done to better the lives of women in Saudi Arabia because they still need permission from a male relative to drive cars, travel alone and have medical operations and who’s to say the changes will be implemented, but it’s a start and if you need any more reason to understand the changes it is still less than 100 years since all women in the UK got the right to vote.

Speaking Truth to Power

2011-09-23T00:32:00.001+01:00

So Sir Emyr Jones Parry, the former UN diplomat and man whose Convention recommended the law making referendum among other things, said today what many people already know and the Opposition Parties have been saying since May’s elections that Labour’s Welsh Government legislative programme is ‘not a natural fit’ for the problems facing Wales.

From BBC Wales ‘Speaking at a conference in Cardiff Bay, Sir Emyr said: "Perhaps the priorities in there (the Welsh Government's plans) are not a natural fit for the problems Wales confronts.

"That's a very diplomatic way of asking whether the Welsh economy, whether the skills Wales needs, whether the educational requirements Wales has... whether we think all of those are going to be strengthened by an obligation to have cycle lanes in a joined-up network across Wales.

"I'm not sure whether they actually hit the button."

I couldn’t have put it better myself, the Assembly needs to keep engaging and convincing voters it’s doing things to improve all our lives and I doubt that anything in Carwyn’s pre legislative statement would set voters pulses racing, apart from those who campaigned successfully and have their ideas included in the Programme for Government.

The Opposition parties weren’t immune from Sir Emyr’s criticism either accused of being equally unambitious in their legislative ideas, even those of us who are interested in Welsh politics would struggle to remember what was included in various Manifestos.

And he also added that after talking to the four parties during the referendum campaign he only got half an answer from one of them about what they would do with full legislative powers- who gave the half answer I wonder?

But his main aim was the Welsh Government who we’re told was stung by Sir Emyr’s legitimate criticism of fiddling while Rome burns, but was the Welsh Government’s reaction spin or did it sting enough for them to actually changes things - next week’s legislative statement will reveal all.

Enterprise Zones – a classic Welsh Government announcement.

2011-09-20T14:45:00.001+01:00

Yesterday instead of not answering awkward questions about why Wales hadn’t managed to secure £355million of investment from Jaguar Land Rover to create 750 new jobs, the Business Minister Edwina Hart who has been invisible for the entire summer rearranging her department, suddenly appeared at Cardiff Business Club last night to announce the creation of 5 new Welsh Enterprise Zones.

The hurried announcement was classic Welsh Government; the areas chosen are highly political Cardiff, Deeside, the Vale of Glamorgan and Ebbw Vale either solid Labour or areas they need to keep voters sweet and then throw in Anglesey as a token gesture given its poor and up North.

The decision is a u turn from a Welsh Government that was dismissive of the value they bought and hell bent just a few short months ago from not having ‘Tory’ Enterprise Zones in Wales, but it looks like the business lobbying over the summer has changed minds. And besides Ministers know the Opposition won’t make any headway calling them to account over this, what’s left of the Welsh Business media are ineffective or in Edwina’s pocket and the public aren’t interested in political squabbles as long as there is some job creation.

Edwina and her team also managed to create a lot of noise last night with the suddenness of announcement which usefully changed the political and economic narrative away from the news about Jaguar Land Rover not coming to Wales. However further concrete details besides the 5 areas and sectors were hard to come by, probably because the Minister and Civil Servants don’t fully know themselves and even if the Opposition asked questions they wouldn’t get any worthwhile answers.

So there you have it the Welsh Government has created a useful distraction by its announcement of new Enterprise Zones safe in the knowledge there is unlikely to be any political price to pay for such blatant politicking and inefficient management of the Welsh economy - but Welsh voters seem happy to keep endorsing this at every Assembly election and as my teachers used to say you get what you deserve.

Did anyone see Carwyn, because everyone saw Peter?

2011-09-19T11:20:00.000+01:00

I want to start with offering my deepest condolences to the families of Phillip Hill, 45, Garry Jenkins, 39, David Powell, 50, and Charles Breslin, 62, who sadly died after the Gleision mine flooded. Despite having no direct connection to mining it’s heartbreaking to see coal still claiming Welsh lives in the 21st century.

Over at Dale & Co, Ian Dale’s new website one of its contributors Ed Staite has named Peter Hain Communicator of the Week for his handling of the Gleision mine tragedy near Pontradawe and despite his normal shameless self promotion and my own antipathy towards him I’d agree. He spoke well, was respectful, informative and represented his constituents, community and Wales very ably to the national and international media audience that had gathered at the mine site and the surrounding communities.

But despite the accolades it got me wondering, if you didn’t know any better and let’s face it most people who watched across the UK and further afield wouldn’t, you’d believe from last week that Peter Hain was Wales’s First Minister and leader of the Welsh Government, not simply the Shadow Secretary of State for Wales.

He managed to totally out think and outmaneuver Carwyn Jones (admittedly not a particularly difficult task) who was there and met with families but remained in the background as Peter with help from his advisors took the lead on every front from the start of the unfolding tragedy. Everything from talking with the families, appearing with the police at press conferences and updating the gathered media to launching the appeal for families - would Alex Salmond, Peter Robinson or Martin McGuiness have allowed their respective Shadow Secretaries of State to take the lead in such circumstances in Scotland or Northern Ireland, I sincerely doubt it.

So why is Carwyn Jones who is after all supposed to be the man elected as Wales’s First Minister so willing to let Peter Hain do it in Wales, is what’s best for the Labour Party still more important than doing his job and leading the country, especially during such a dreadful tragedy?

Questions for the First Minister

2011-09-15T12:11:00.002+01:00

Wales’s First Minister Carwyn Jones will no doubt claim he has been really busy over the summer doing all sorts of very important things and hasn’t been AWOL as most people suspect, but whatever he and his Ministers have or haven’t been doing as they are heading back to Cardiff Bay next week here are a few things to ponder.

Firstly is the First Minister going to release the details of his visit to New Zealand specifically if he managed to secure investment for Wales as well as any potential leads for Welsh business?

I ask not because I object to him going like some people, but because the Welsh Government’s International Business Wales office in New Zealand office was closed in July, (something that has gone unreported) probably due to the business and investment opportunities and associated operating costs not being cost effective or worthwhile.

And if the trip to New Zealand was only to met political leaders and wish the rugby team well for the World Cup then Carwyn shouldn’t be afraid to say so, not everything a Head of Government does has to be about securing trade and investment. But by telling everyone the trip was solely about investment especially in these difficult economic times then he shouldn’t be afraid to answer legitimate questions on the matter on his return to Wales.

Talking of inward investment we learnt today that his Business Minister Edwina Hart is still refusing to talk to a Committee of Welsh MP about the Welsh Government’s inward investment plans even though they are coming to the National Assembly for Wales for the meeting. Rhodri Morgan’s former right-hand man Mark Drakeford is Labour’s representative, says it all another anti enterprise dinosaur who might actually represent Edwina’s views on business well to the Committee members.

I mean what's the problem, it’s not as if the Labour Party is ashamed of its appalling economic record in Wales because it would have changed course by now if it was. Maybe it’s more simple there’s no fall out or accountability for bad Ministerial decisions by either by Assembly colleagues or the electorate so Welsh Ministers can say and do what the hell they like with impunity.

And lastly why was there complete silence about yesterday’s unemployment figures from Carwyn Jones is a 7,000 increase in unemployment in Wales to now stand at 122,000 or almost 8.5% of the workforce really unoteworthy, a holding Statement from Edwina about the Welsh Government still reviewing the best way to support Welsh business is almost comical.

Or was his silence more to do with the fact unemployment is falling in Scotland due to a more active First Minister and Cabinet perhaps exposing the total lack of action in Cardiff Bay, or the sight of a new economic policy since May’s election – rearranging deckchairs in the Business Department may be good for the Minister but for those worried about jobs it makes no difference.

Any answers to the above points would be welcome.

Interesting David, but you’re missing the point

2011-09-14T15:26:00.000+01:00

There has been lots of comment and reaction to Tory AM David Melding’s suggestion that the Conservative Party in Wales should follow the example of Scottish Tories and become a separate centre right party or at least aim for more autonomy from Tory Central office.

And with the lack of action in Cardiff Bay at the moment its got the political anoraks among us wondering about how viable it would be. Would new group leader Andrew RT Davies or Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan be supportive of such a change, would it attract new voters and ones from other parties and how different would it really be to the Conservative Party?

But aside from those talking points and David’s shot across Nick Bourne’s bows for only doing ‘two thirds of a job’ in transforming the Tory Party when he was Assembly leader, a new right wing Welsh party would have the same problems David and his colleagues always have – that Wales, its politics, parties and voters are left wing and the majority of political discourse is left wing.

Despite the progress of the last decade centre right politics remains a minority interest in Wales and I have no doubt that the other parties will use guilt by association for any new centre right party started here in Wales.

The new party members will be asked continually about their views of Margaret Thatcher, her economic policies and the miners’ strike and would also be accused of not being Welsh and not caring about Wales like the Conservatives are now – you have to ask why anyone would put themselves through the ordeal without the prospect of real influence or ever getting in to Government?

But in this context, it’s noteworthy that the most significant developments in Welsh politics since May’s election has come from the Conservative Party following the UK Governments announcement of the Calman Wales style Commission before the summer recess.

'10 year squeeze on household incomes' - IFS

2011-09-12T12:06:00.001+01:00

As if economic news couldn’t be bleaker, along comes a new report from the respected Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) looking at the effect on individuals of what economists and financiers are calling the ’Great Recession’ in OECD countries and it's no surprise it found income levels have stagnated and the pattern will continue for years, with the least well off fairing badly in the UK.

The main findings shows that ‘The fall of 6% in UK GDP from peak to trough during the Great Recession lies somewhere in the middle of the international experience. Countries such as Ireland, Japan and Sweden experienced sharper falls, and countries such as Canada saw smaller falls (or, in the Australian case, no fall at all).

The employment rate in the UK fell by substantially less than GDP – it was 1.6 percentage points lower in 2009 than 2007. Again, this is somewhere in the middle of the international experience. Over the same period, the employment rate rose in Germany, barely changed in France, and fell by more than 4 percentage points in the US. Falls in employment in the UK were concentrated most on men and the young, a pattern observed in many other countries.

UK households were relatively insulated from the immediate impacts of the Great Recession, as median net household incomes continued to grow slightly between 2007–08 and 2009–10 (the latest household income data available). This is a phenomenon common to other countries (e.g. Sweden, the US, and even Ireland), due in large part to the stabilising role of state welfare systems and (particularly in the UK case) unusually generous increases in financial state support during the recession. Much of this protective effect was concentrated on households in the bottom half of the income distribution.

However, as governments attempt to repair their public finances, household incomes now look set to be squeezed for a considerable length of time. In the most recent financial year (2010-11), earnings, state benefits and tax credits all fell in real terms in the UK. As part of this study, IFS researchers estimate that this is likely to have led to a fall in median net household income of 3.5%, the largest single-year drop since 1981, returning it to its 2003–04 level.

It thus seems that much of the impact of the Great Recession on UK living standards was not felt until after the economy had stopped contracting, but that the pain was most definitely delayed rather than avoided. Previous IFS research has already shown that the decline in average living standards looks set to continue until at least 2013-14. Taken together, this would mean that the UK had experienced one of the worst decades for changes in living standards since at least the Second World War. The Great Recession thus looks set to cast a very long shadow.

It thus seems set to continue until at least 2013-14. Taken together, this would mean that the UK had experienced one of the worst decades for changes in living standards since at least the Second World War. The Great Recession thus looks set to cast a very long shadow.

Robert Joyce, a Research Economist at IFS and a contributor to the report, said “The current economic downturn began more than 3 years ago, and may seem like old news. But, as in other developed countries, the most severe consequences of the recession on UK living standards have only just begun to be felt, and will continue to be felt for years to come.”

The UK part of the report is HERE

'Lack of employability skills pushes school leavers to back of jobs queue', CIPD survey

2011-09-07T00:16:00.000+01:00

Almost two weeks have passed since this year’s GCSE’s results were published and things don’t look great for the recipients whose entrance in to the jobs market is tougher than ever if the latest Chartered Institute of Personnel Development quarterly labour Market outlook survey results published a few days before the results are anything to go by.

It’s something that the policy makers in both the UK and Welsh Government’s need to be aware of and tackle head on especially with high youth unemployment in the UK currently standing at over 20% in August combined with the concerns over the quality of candidates the Welsh education system is currently turning out.

According to the survey ‘The CIPD’s latest study on skills and migration in the Labour Market Outlook, based on a survey of more than 1,000 employers, shows that demand for migrant workers has increased to a record high, with a quarter of employers now planning to hire migrant workers in the third quarter of 2011. In response to the annual cap on non-EU migrants, more employers say they will hire EU migrant workers (34%) than up-skill existing workers (23%) or recruit more graduates (18%). Almost one in ten employers (8%) say that they would offshore jobs abroad.

In contrast to the growing proportion of employers looking to recruit overseas workers, employers’ overall hiring intentions for young people have fallen since Spring 2010 when employers were last asked these questions in the survey. Only 12% of employers plan to hire 16 year-old school-leavers in the three months to September 2011, down from 14%. Similarly, the number of employers planning to recruit school-leavers aged 17-18 and above has fallen to a quarter (25%) from almost a third (31%) in the same period.

The number of employers planning to take on higher education leavers under the age of 24 is 38%, compared to 47% last year. However, the Government’s efforts to boost the employment of apprentices appears to be working, with 37% of respondents planning to recruit apprentices compared with 24% last year.

When asked what skills the Government should focus on improving to encourage more employers to recruit young people, respondents identified literacy (53%) and numeracy (42%), as well as employability skills, such as good customer service skills (40%) and good communication skills (40%).'

Gerwyn Davies, Public Policy Adviser, CIPD, comments: “Youth unemployment looks set to rise further amid employer concerns about the employability of young people. The migration cap is stemming the flow of skilled non-EU migrant workers on the one hand, but increasing the supply of EU workers with the other, which highlights the relative ineffectiveness of the cap in bringing net migration levels down.

“Employers seem eager to take full advantage of this, to make use of their positive attitude and their skills. The perception among many of our members is that too many young people in the UK do not have these qualities, which may explain why fewer young people are being hired. At a time when many school-leavers will be looking for work and the number of job opportunities is falling, youth unemployment could increase more sharply in the coming months. The Government therefore needs to redouble efforts to ensure the education and skills system is fit for purpose to ensure young people can find a foothold in an increasingly competitive jobs market.

Thought for the Day

2011-09-05T23:12:00.000+01:00

Scotland’s First Minister and SNP leader Alex Salmond has been nominated for most influential left wing thinker of the year and he may or may not win – but the fact he was nominated at all got me thinking. Scottish like Welsh politics is dominated by left wing politics, so would any current Welsh politician of any party make the list for most influential left wing thinker of the year?

I’m doubt even former Welsh First Minister and Labour leader Rhodri Morgan at the peak of his power and popularity would make the cut for a list like this and that tells its own story about the quality of leaders and the differing influence of Wales and Scotland's political class have on the wider UK political and policy debate.

The Entrepreneurial State

2011-08-31T00:26:00.000+01:00

Here in Wales there is a stale unchallenged economic consensus among those who govern Wales that has failed to produce sustainable economic growth, investment and jobs over the years, but could a new report from the Demos Think Tank published in July entitled ’The Entrepreneurial State’ shake not only our Government Ministers and Opposition Parties out of the public sector good, private sector bad attitude that is so often in display in any Welsh economic debate, but wider Welsh society as well.

The report by Mariana Mazzucato, currently Professor in the Economics of Innovation at the Open University, states ‘The prevailing opinion on public spending is that the state must be cut back to make room for entrepreneurship and innovation, to prevent the public sector ‘crowding out’ the private sector. This draws on the belief that the private sector is dynamic, innovative and competitive, in contrast to the sluggish and bureaucratic public sector.

The Entrepreneurial State challenges this minimalist view of economic policy. It finds that successful economies result from government doing more than just creating the right conditions for growth. Instead, government has a key role to play in developing new technologies whose potential is not yet understood by the business community. State-funded organisations can be nimble and innovative, transforming economies forever — the algorithm behind Google was funded by a public sector National Science Foundation grant.

This pamphlet forces the debate to go beyond the role of the state in stimulating demand, or crudely ‘picking winners’ in industrial policy. Instead, it argues for a proactive, entrepreneurial state: a state that is able to take risks and harness the best of the private sector. It imagines the state as a catalyst, sparking the initial reaction that will cause innovation to spread.'

A summary of the main recommendations she makes is below, some are UK specific but most apply to Wales and are worth debating at the very least.

• Reduce government spending on direct transfers to small firms, such as small business rates relief and inheritance tax relief. This is a cost saving.

• If the Small Business Research Initiative (SBRI) is enhanced, as the government has indicated, it must be done in a way that focuses on how to get SMEs to spend money on new technologies. To do so, it will need to increase the size of the project financing that it administers (too diluted currently), and concentrate on firms that prove they will spend on innovation. This is cost neutral.

• Abandon initiatives to establish a UK patent box (a preferential tax regime for profits arising from patents), which would not increase innovation and according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies would in time lead to greater taxpayer costs. This is a cost saving.

• Review R&D tax credits with a view to ensuring that firms are held accountable for actually spending the money on innovation, and failing that, shift away from blanket R&D tax credits to free up resources towards direct commissioning of the technological advance in question. This is a potential cost saving.

• Enterprise zones, that give regulatory or taxation advantages to firms in a certain area, are a distraction as they do not cause innovation to happen that would not have taken place elsewhere. Best to use the money in other ways. This is a cost saving.

• When successful, a part of the return from investments made with significant public support should be returned to government. This is a potential cost saving.

Use these freed-up resources to engage in a massive expansion of the Technology Strategy Board, structured in line with the model of the US DARPA to directly enable innovation (research, development and commercialisation) through a bottom-up government-directed network of agencies, in line with recommendations of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) in 2006/9 it also requires more transparency about funding decisions and clearer auditing of performance so that failing performance areas are cut off. This would increase expenditure.

• Adopt a more proactive interventionist approach to green technology innovation, drawing on the UK’s specific strengths. This would increase expenditure.

• The time any private equity investment must be held before the gains from sale can be exempt from capital gains tax, should be raised in the UK to at least five years (currently only two, previously ten in 2002). This would help prevent the ‘take the money and run’ in green tech, which has characterised investments in biotechnology companies, most of which
remain ‘product-less’. This is a cost saving.

• Short-termism is especially problematic in contexts in which radical technological change is needed and the reason why venture capital and other forms of private equity are not playing a leading role in green technology. Given the lack of private investments, the UK government should step up and increase its ‘green’ budget. The Green Investment Bank is not enough. This would increase expenditure.

So do we have a First Minister, a Business Minister and Opposition politicians brave enough to take some of these ideas on board, challenge the failing economic consensus here in Wales and try and build a new consensus to give us all a brighter future?

The full report is HERE

Good PR, Good Business or something else?

2011-08-28T13:07:00.000+01:00

Here’s two interesting stories in the past fortnight from the US and France on very wealthy individuals calling on their respective governments to tax them more, not something you hear very often - so what's up?.

First Warren Buffet the US Investment Billionaire wrote an article in the New York Times calling on the US Government to tax him and his fellow billionaires and stop granting them favours when the vast majority of his fellow citizens are struggling in the current climate.

And in France 16 wealthy individuals including L’Oréal heiress Liliane Bettencourt, signed a petition that called on the French Government to take a “special contribution” from the country’s biggest earners — one that would remain “reasonable” so as not to see billionaires fleeing France for overseas tax havens. Might it have something to do with the Euro's problems.

With UK Chancellor George Osborne ready to scrap the 50p top tax rate and the deal with Swiss Banks to tax British accounts which would easily make up any shortfall in revenue, Britain is still a good bet for the super rich, but so are the US and France despite the consciousness of a few very wealthy people.

How would we know if Wales was in recession?

2011-08-24T14:35:00.001+01:00

The Western Mail’s lead headline that the Welsh economy ‘could already be in recession’ was good for attracting attention no doubt, but as the article showed it was more about people’s opinions from recent business survey results, current trading conditions and previous experiences of downturns, rather than hard GDP or GVA facts but its not a surprise because the figures simply aren't collated regularly for Wales.

A recession is characterised by two consecutive quarters of GVA or GDP of negative growth, but as the Welsh Government only produce GVA figures for the Welsh economy once a year in December before the Christmas holidays for the previous 12 months (December 2011 figures will be for 2010) – how would Welsh Government minister's or business leaders know that Wales was in recession and if you don’t know, how can you plan properly for a downturn if you are relying on incomplete economic data?

And it’s not the case that regular figures can't be produced because Wales is too small or has a regional government, the Scottish and Catalan Government’s both manage to produce far more regular GVA updates on the state of their respective economies than our lot in Cardiff Bay – it’s a situation that its unlikely to change and yet another reason why the business community has little faith in the Welsh Government’s approach to business.

The Opposition are at it now

2011-08-23T00:15:00.000+01:00

It’s not just the Welsh government who are inhabiting a parallel universe to the rest of us it seems, but the Opposition are as well.

We learnt today that Leader of the Opposition Welsh Conservative Andrew RT Davies first major policy announcement since becoming leader is for MP’s to overturn the fox hunting ban. Now apart from this not being a devolved matter or high on anyone’s agenda, it gives more ammunition to his opponents who must think Christmas has come early.

And his remarks would be funny if things weren’t so serious, there is real anxiety among all sections of Welsh society about inflation, food prices, job security and whether their kids will get into University and the best the man charged with leading the opposition in the Welsh Assembly has to offer after a summer of silence is a repeal of the fox hunting ban.

That’s bad enough but Andrew, like most Welsh politicians of all parties also had nothing to say about last week’s unemployment figures or the high economic activity rate that Dylan Jones Evans raise in his weekly column. Does he agree with Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan when she said there was an urgent need for growth after last Wednesday’s figures and with Dylan that tackling economic activity should be a high priority?

And Andrew isn’t alone in his silence, I’ve already written about the invisibility of Welsh Labour Government Minister in my previous post and Valleys Mam has asked about where the Welsh press has been since recess began.

And while we’re on the subject of Opposition leaders and parties has anyone seen Ieuan Wyn Jones or any other Plaid Cymru politicians lately or what about Kirsty Williams and any of the Lib Dems?

Wales is a country without leaders and an economy without jobs - so what are our politicians gonna do about it?

Unemployment, a Departmental move and the Invisibles

2011-08-19T00:25:00.002+01:00

On Wednesday (17th August) the latest unemployment figures for Wales (and the UK) were released for the Office for National Statistics and showed a 10,000 increase in the number of unemployed in Wales is 122,000 or 8.4% of the workforce, the data also showed a small increase in the number claiming Job Seeker Allowance (JSA) in the past three months as well – bad but not a real surprise.

Now 122,000 unemployed is bad enough, but in the coming months as a result of the UK Government’s changes to Incapacity Benefit and Income Support normally claimed by single parents a total of 70,000 individuals in Wales moved on to the JSA claimant count according to the Department of Work & Pensions own figures, so we are potentially looking at 190,000 people in Wales looking for jobs over the next few years. A truly scary prospect in a Welsh economy heavily reliant on the public sector for employment and no discernible political interest in the impact of the changes Cardiff Bay.

We also found out on Wednesday from ITV Wales Political Editor Adrian Masters that the Business Department civil servants were being moved en mass to the QED Centre on the Treforest Industrial Estate at the request of the Business Minster Edwina Hart. Nothing should surprise us with the Welsh Government anymore and apart from the obvious cost as others have pointed out Business Department civil servants are based all over Wales, we should know if this has Carwyn’s approval and whether there has been any Cabinet discussion about this? And why is only ITV Wales reporting the story?

So aside from the fact our new Business Minister’s top priority has been rearranging her department and hiring communications reinforcements at a time when the financial market are in turmoil, economic growth is slowing and job losses are mounting and both Scottish and Northern Irish Government Minister’s have taken to the airwaves to try and reassure voters and make new policy announcements on jobs and skills while also being in recess – there was no sign of Edwina Hart or her boss First Minister Carwyn Jones on an important day for Welsh economic news to comment on the state of the Welsh jobs market and the unemployment figures or the major announcement on changes in the Business Department at Welsh Government.

But then what did we expect from a Minister who in her first interview in June since her appointment more or less admitted defeat with her ‘were a regional government on the edge of Europe’ remark and a First Minister who only seems interested in scoring points like his remarks in the aftermath of riots rather than leading the Country in these uncertain times.

Any chance of something more innovative from our thinks tanks?

2011-08-17T13:31:00.001+01:00

As the riots were unfolding across England’s cities Inside Out Jaxxland made the point about parts of the Welsh press being disappointed by the lack of looting and rioting in Welsh town and cities and the fact they had nothing to report from a Welsh perspective during such a major story and I would agree, but the Welsh press aren’t alone, it seems the need to get in on the post riot action has spread to what passes for Welsh think tank land.

In the past few days we have had the Director’s of the Bevan Foundation, the Institute of Welsh Affairs and the Centre for Regeneration Excellence offer their analysis on the causes of riots and their predetermined lessons for Wales. It’s no surprise the articles and posts contain the same well trodden path of blaming poverty, a lack of jobs and investment, a lack of education and petty crime as causes for the problems we face as a society.

And it’s not that I would disagree that these are serious issues that need tackling, but it’s depressing that the same tired old cliches about the causes and how you tackle them is all that’s on offer at a time when social and economic policy is front and centre in the news and new ideas could be aired and at least be discussed, if not implemented straight away.

The whole idea behind Think Tanks is that they generate new ideas that challenge current thinking on social and economic issues and start debates that politicians often can’t – its something Wales think tanks have yet to develop the capacity to do on a regular basis and its a shame for them and the wider development of Welsh politics and political engagement.

At a time when Wales is in desperate need of new innovative thinking to tackle decades old problems that break through the limited horizons of a stale political climate in Wales, further highlighted by our First Minister using the riots and the UK Government’s knee jerk response to it for some political point scoring claiming Wales is now more unsafe and more vulnerable to unemployment because of the Lib Dems and Tories in Westminster despite many of the social policy levers to mitigate the worst effect are already under the Assembly’s control, our think tanks have been show to be threadbare, both intellectually and financially, maybe its time for a change of leadership?

Welsh music videos

2011-08-15T19:26:00.000+01:00

Relax and enjoy Paper Aeroplanes -'My First Love' and Sion Russell Jones 'And Suddenly'

'Why did DWP delay releasing new data until after welfare reform bill cleared Commons?'

2011-08-14T12:17:00.001+01:00

All government’s manipulate statistics, but when something as serious as this is involved it makes you wonder what’s going on at the Department of Work & Pensions, so i’m reposting the Left Foot Forward article in full.

Yesterday we reported how in research published on Monday, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) finally acknowledged that one of the key figures it has been using to make the case for cuts to disability living allowance gives ‘a distorted picture’.

The blogger and regular Left Foot Forward commenter Mason Dixon, Autistic (MDA) has pointed out that if this information had been released when it was signed off, back in May, it would have been released while MPs were debating the welfare reform bill which has now left the House of Commons.

These raise some questions about DWP’s handling of evidence on benefit receipt and how it communicates this evidence to stakeholders, including MPs.

This is what MDA said in the comments to yesterday’s article:

“Can I just point out that the report itself was published on Monday, but insideit is dated as July on the front page of the PDF and then later the author signs off the date as May 2011.

“This report has been delayed for nearly three months. May is when it was going through its second reading in the Commons, July is when the government made a failed attempt to hurry it through the Second Reading in the Lords but it got delayed until September.

“So this has been released right in the middle of a very good time to bury bad news.”

We have checked the DWP’s series of ‘ad hoc analyses’, to which the research released on Monday belongs. Most of these reports have what seems to be a sign off date (by a named civil servant) and a publication date, as well as a date of publication on the DWP’s website.

The table shows these dates for reports published to date in the third quarter of this year. Compared to the other reports, the gap between sign off and publication date on the DLA analysis certainly looks anomalous. For other reports, sign off and publication more or less coincide (in one case, which we are unable to explain, publication preceded sign-off!).

Given how many thousands of people are to be affected by the disability reform bill, holding this analysis back while parliamentarians debated the bill seems, on the surface, seriously irresponsible. Left Foot Forward has put these questions to the DWP, and will report back on the answers if and when they appear:

1) Why was there such a long gap between sign off and publication of this particular piece of analysis? Was there some additional level of civil service clearance required before this analysis could be published, compared to other ad hoc analyses, and if so at what level? Who cleared the report for publication, and when? Who decided on the date the analysis was to be released?

2) Who commissioned the report? Was it commissioned at the request of the Secretary of State’s or other ministerial private office?

3) How did it come about that such basic analysis of the drivers of DLA growth was only carried out after the government had set out its proposals for radical changes to DLA?

4) What steps did the DWP take to communicate the findings of this analysis to parliamentarians in the course of the Commons debates on the Welfare Reform Bill?

Quote of the Day

2011-08-11T16:46:00.000+01:00

Accepting your own powerlessness is a characteristic of weak leaders throughout history: always managing, never transforming.

It’s not only a true description of Welsh political leadership now and over many decades, but the article it comes from exposes the seeming paralysis of David Cameron and Barack Obama's leadership in the face of the social and economic challenges have been thrown up over the past few weeks and months.

Scottish Cabinet meeting about financial crisis, Alex Salmond wants economic Plan B, so what’s happening in Wales?

2011-08-10T12:11:00.001+01:00

I have already asked if the First Minister is monitoring events of the financial crisis and what if anything he and his colleagues could do to help Welsh business and households who are suffering as a result, but not for the first time it’s his Scottish counterpart who really puts into sharp focus Carwyn Jones lack of leadership and inaction during the ongoing crisis.

On Monday (8th August) the Scotsman reported ‘First Minister Alex Salmond has called for a "Plan B" to protect Scotland's economy during the global economic crisis.

Mr Salmond made the call as his SNP cabinet was due to discuss economic recovery during a meeting in Stranraer today as part of a summer tour of Scotland.

The First Minister repeated the SNP's flagship demand for increased fiscal responsibilities - such as enhanced borrowing and tax powers - for the Scottish Parliament.

Mr Salmond said: "Governments have to focus on the issues that matter to people during this uncertain international situation and that means jobs and economic recovery.

"The idea that exports alone can pull the economy into greater growth is far fetched.

"Therefore we need a domestic stimulus and one which will not cause jitters in the financial markets.

"The best way to do that is to focus on capital investment and consumer and company confidence.

"These are the measures that the Scottish Government is bringing forward within the powers that we have.

"However, what Scotland really needs is the greater ability to grow our economy and create jobs. The UK Chancellor has to realise that changing events require changes in policy."

Today's cabinet meeting comes after Mr Salmond appealed for cross party backing over plans to give Scottish ministers a statutory role in European Union discussions.'

Added to that the South Wales Chamber of Commerce has today reported that business growth slowed during the second quarter of 2011 among retail and construction business in Cardiff, Swansea and Newport, its more evidence of the challenges they face and the lack of interest there remains in Welsh Government circles to help Welsh business large and small through the tough economic times we face.

The Hourglass and the Escalator, labour market change and mobility

2011-08-08T13:10:00.000+01:00

The second report from the Work Foundation in its series on The Bottom Ten Million, entitled The Hourglass and the Escalator, labour market change and mobility, looking at the prospects those UK workers on incomes of less than £15,000 per annum between now and 2020 and seeks to identify the priority measures that need to be taken if they are to share in the sources of growth and prosperity over the next decade, as well as identifying the huge changes in the Labour Market was published last month and highlights the challenges for policy makers looking to improve the lives of those at the bottom of the work ladder.

Rather than try and summarise the report the Executive Summary is below and the full report is here

The past decade has been a period of considerable change in the labour market, in particular in the latter years when the economy has experienced recession and emerging recovery. Over the longer-term, as the economy has been increasingly based on knowledge rather than routine production, new jobs have been created in large numbers in high-skill, high-wage professional and managerial occupations. Yet the last decade has also seen growth in lower wage service occupations, combined with a reduction in middle-wage occupations, leading to concerns of employment polarisation. In short, there appears to be a gradual hollowing-out of the labour market.

This hollowing-out has lead some commentators to talk of the labour market as being increasingly structured like an hourglass, and bifurcated into good and bad jobs. This report investigates the evidence and implications of these changes in the labour market. It finds evidence for employment polarisation, with technological change reducing the demand for routine workers in administrative and secretarial, and process, plant and machine operative occupations.

The process of labour market change and polarisation has tended to be experienced differently by men and women. For men in the 2000s the growth in employment share was solely among the three highest wage and the three lowest wage occupations. For women there was very strong growth in employment in professional occupations, supported in large part by increasing public sector employment. There was also strong growth in personal service occupations.

However, changes in the labour market have not resulted in the sharp increases in wage inequality which were seen in the 1980s and 1990s.
For men wage inequality did increase somewhat in the 2000s, and this was driven by the faster growth in wages at the top. For women wage inequality was stable over the period.

The recent recession was not the white-collar recession that many commentators were predicting.
Employment in professional occupations continued to grow through the recession and into the recovery (although managerial employment has contracted in the early recovery). The large-scale job losses in the recession were in routine manual and non-manual occupations, with the recession accelerating the structural changes which were already reducing these occupations in size. In the early recovery, alongside an increase in professional jobs there has also been growth in the numbers of elementary jobs – jobs which tend to be unskilled and low-wage. This is important because although the economy has begun creating jobs, a significant number of these are in the low-wage occupations, meaning that those who lose jobs in relatively better paid and more skilled occupations may have to take work at a lower wage and skill level.

The least skilled have suffered in the recession as people with more skills ‘bump-down’ in the labour market. The pattern of employment growth in the early recovery has important implications for those least able to compete for jobs. The employment rate for those with no qualifications fell markedly during the recession, as competition for entry level posts has become intense, with those leaving relatively more skilled jobs competing for those jobs which are available.

One of the potentially damaging aspects of growing polarisation in the labour market is that it may create additional barriers to earnings mobility. Estimates from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) suggest that around a third of those in the bottom ten per cent of earners in 2001/2 were still there in 2008/9, and that more than 60 per cent remained in the bottom three deciles. The
BHPS also shows that women and those with no qualifications were significantly more likely to remain stuck at the bottom of the earnings distribution. There is therefore concern that in many cases low wage work is not acting as an ‘escalator’ into employment which offers better wages and prospects, but is instead a dead-end.

In order to support in-work progression for low earners, policy makers should:

• Identify ways to improve and upgrade service sector employment. Emerging work
in Canada and the US has driven an ambitious call to ‘upgrade’ and improve low-wage
service work so that it offers more in terms of better wages, job satisfaction and opportunity for progression. This is something that has clear attractions, and the potential for such an approach should be given serious consideration in the UK context.

• Work with employers, sector skills councils and training providers to develop career ladders. In some sectors career ladders which offer clear paths for in-work progression can help to significantly boost earnings mobility and ensure individuals are not trapped in dead-end jobs.

• Ensure good quality careers advice is available. In sectors where career ladders are not likely to be effective in engendering earning mobility, workers can be supported to progress through mobility between jobs. Careers advice can help to facilitate this but it needs to be more visible to those already in employment.

• Promote lifelong learning. Upgrading qualifications is associated with increasing earnings.A key challenge is to foster a culture of learning among individuals once in the workplace, as well as to encourage employers to support workers learning needs.Recent changes in the labour market have also created some specific policy needs going forward:

• Facilitate the sector swap. A significant component of public sector employment growth in the past decade has been in professional occupations. In the context of large cuts to public expenditure there is therefore a rationale for a public sector skills programme to ensure that skills developed in the public sector are effectively transferred into private sector employment.

• Re-skill and re-train. Structural changes in the economy mean that when some people lose their job a return to the same, or a similar, occupation is unlikely. There is currently relatively little support available for those who require fuller re-training. To facilitate this there may be a case for providing greater flexibility in the benefits system to allow individuals to retrain.

We’re not all in this together

2011-08-05T12:35:00.002+01:00

After most of the population woke up to yet more blood curdling headlines about big falls on the World’s Stock Markets amid the dire state of the US, European and UK economy’s and the threat of more cuts and tax increases to repay the debt following stalling economies and the possibility of another recession, it’s simply incredible that those in charge of the Government the Prime Minister, his Deputy and the Chancellor are all on holidays.

David Cameron is in Tuscany with his family, George Osborne is in Los Angeles and Nick Clegg is with his family in Spain. I know people who have kept their jobs and are earning decent salaries who haven’t been able to afford holiday for the last 3 years. its not just the poorest who are hurting.

If that wasn’t enough the Government's own Office for Budget Responsibility has down graded its growth forecast for 2011 for the third time to 1.7% and said the UK is unlikely to meet that target added to the latest Chartered Institute of Personnel Development (CIPD) employee survey for August published this week stated 58% of employees have had pay freezes since the start of the year and 6% have had their pay cut, plus there is evidence that the 50p Tax rate could be cut as soon as next April proves we are not all in this together as the PM and his Ministers are fond of parroting.

But Welsh Minister’s aren’t immune, yes the main levers are elsewhere and most of them are at the Eisteddfod this week before going off on holiday after what some commentators called a gruelling six months (stop laughing), but have we heard from Wales’s First Minister about the latest economic crisis or from his Finance Minister by chance on what they could do to help – of course we haven’t it’s easier to blame to baby eating Tories for all the misery.

So both sets of Government Ministers in their own way are showing contempt to the electorate who are worried about the economic consequences of another global financial crisis especially in Wales where unemployment remains stubbornly high and benefit changes are already impacting disproportionally on families – so what are both Government’s gonna do about this situation?

Will Plaid take Adam’s challenge head on?

2011-08-03T00:45:00.000+01:00

Adam Price’s new co authored report about small nations, sustainable economic development and the how they fared in the global turmoil of the past few years and its conclusions that Wales would have been up to 39% better off if it had been Independent, has certainly caused a stir and will no doubt be quoted and misquoted in the weeks, months and years to come by supporters and detractors of its findings.

The notes accompanying the publication state ‘The report is a serious and substantial contribution to the debate about sustainable economic growth in small nations. This is particularly timely and highly relevant to Wales and other similar European countries in this time of global economic turmoil.’ and whatever your political persuasion it’s good to see another report on the Welsh economy to help widen the debate on the challenges we face and raise awareness of economic issues outside of the usual suspects.

The main findings of the report are below

Size matters: 50% of differences in growth over the last thirty years in western Europe can be attributed to differences in country size;

Welsh people would be around 39% richer, and the Welsh economy would have grown by 2.5% a year had Wales achieved independence around the time of the fall of the Berlin Wall and followed a similar pattern to other small nations;

Small is richer: being small doesn't hamper a country's prosperity - in fact there is a 'small country bonus' amongst the EU's member states, with smaller countries growing at a more rapid pace;

Smaller countries are frequently the fastest to recover from recession;

Four key factors make small nations economically successful - openness to trade; social cohesion; adaptability; the EU's flotilla-like structure.

But while the report will certainly be a boost for Plaid Cymru, its supporters and the wider Welsh nationalist cause after a bruising couple months in which they have both suffered a series of setbacks, the question remains whether Plaid Cymru will use this opportunity to take Adam’s other economic message on board and develop a more distinct and sharper economic focus by putting economic and finance issues at the heart of their future policies in order to regain their political edge and try and attract voters back to the Party?

The full report entitled ‘The Flotilla Effect’ is here

Is the Arab Spring spreading to Israel?

2011-08-01T12:12:00.001+01:00

Who knows, but there were mass protests in Israel over the weekend with 150,000 people protesting across the country against rising food and fuel prices and the cost of education that have rattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition Government.

According to the Independent ‘As more than 150,000 protesters gathered at sites across Israel on Saturday night in one of the country's biggest protests in recent years, the embattled premier promised swift action, establishing a task force to examine their concerns. But he warned against populist measures that would plunge the country into a Europe-style economic crisis.

The protests, initially thought to pose little danger to the coalition, have rattled the government. Shas, the main religious party, has warned that it could leave Mr Netanyahu's right-wing coalition if substantive steps are not taken to alleviate the crisis, potentially triggering new elections.

But it is the political awakening of a largely passive and young middle class that commentators suggest is most dangerous, with activists dubbing it a "revolution of awareness". The protests, which have diverted attention from the Palestinian issue, have grown from a few hundred to tens of thousands in just a couple of weeks, encompassing multiple grievances from high taxes and food prices to the cost of education.

Public dissent has also reignited the simmering antipathy towards Israel's tycoon class, perceived as profiteering from cartels that have pushed up the prices of consumer goods with tacit support from successive Israeli governments.

One commentator, Yair Lapid, suggested that the middle class had become a de facto minority, unable to compete for the subsidies and tax breaks enjoyed by more disadvantaged communities.

Mr Lapid wrote on Ynet, an Israeli news site: "[The middle class] became smaller and smaller and was pushed into a corner, and was angry quietly, until one day it ... discovered that something wonderful happened: it also turned into a minority."

It seemed unlikely yesterday that the government would meet all of the protesters' demands. At the weekly Cabinet meeting, Mr Netanyahu promised to avoid "irresponsible, hasty and populist steps that [could] drag the country down to the situation of certain countries in Europe, which reached the point of bankruptcy and mass unemployment".

Mr Netanyahu's Likud party has seen its poll ratings plummet in recent days, and commentators are now widely predicting that the summer of discontent could become the turning point of his premiership.

Dan Shilon wrote in the Maariv daily: "The mass demonstrations that swept Israel last night, Mr Prime Minister, will sweep you away as well."

Israel’s Haaretz newspaper also reported that Jews and Arabs were protesting together in Nazareth against the economic hardship.

'Challenging a culture of mediocrity'

2011-07-27T13:17:00.000+01:00

I thought this was worth highlighting for those who haven’t seen it, its Lee Waters lengthy article on the Referendum Campaign and the state of Welsh devolution in the latest IWA Agenda journal.

Lee was part of the YES Campaign and Sustrans Director is also one of the more thoughtful and less instinctively tribal members of the Labour Party in Wales, so its worth listening to what he has to say and he certainly no punches - one can only wonder what the First Minister, the Cabinet, Labour AM’s, MP’s and ordinary members make of such honesty from their own ranks about the stale political climate they in particular have allowed to develop since 1999.

Lee writes ‘The No campaign’s assaults struck a nerve in three areas: capacity, scrutiny, and quality.

It is only human for those of us who campaigned for a Yes vote to have basked for a brief moment in the satisfaction of a well fought campaign. But it is incumbent on us now to examine the weaknesses in the case that we presented and seek solutions, however uncomfortable they may be.

From the vantage point of the engine room of the Yes campaign Wales looked small. Of course, not literally. The task of creating an infrastructure across the towns and cities of Wales in a matter of months was an awesome one, and one I left to the formidable organisational skills of Cathy Owens and Daran Hill. But the challenge of engaging Wales’ civil society and media was one I helped take on, and it was a sobering exercise. To be brutal, there wasn’t much to work with.

Though non-governmental organisations have grown significantly in Wales since 1999 they remain a weak force. Most proved themselves either unwilling or incapable of persuading their UK head offices of the merits of engaging in the referendum campaign. Otherwise, they were too reliant on Welsh Government grant-in-aid to risk taking sides. Of course, as individuals most of the people engaged in Welsh civil society supported the reforms, in some cases actively. However, the small civil society to which they belong has developed a culture of risk aversion when it comes to political engagement. The rules of the Charity Commission do not help, although they are too often a convenient excuse to fall back on to justify the new credo: don’t upset anyone!

The tale of the ‘media war’ is another tale for another day, but the salient point for the purposes of this essay is that Of course, it is difficult to run a campaign in which few are taking much notice. A declining Welsh media, allied to a metropolitan corps of journalists disinterested in developments that do not fit into a Westminster narrative, made the telling of our own story very difficult. The frustration was only added to by having the disengagement played back to us as evidence of a disinterest in the devolution project amongst the people of Wales.

There’s no use railing against it, it’s a reality. And that reality presents enormous challenges to the future viability of Welsh politics. As Rachel Banner herself said, in an essay on the Wales Home website:

“The serious lack of plurality in the Welsh press means that it is much more difficult for a unicameral Assembly with the greatly enhanced law-making power... to be held accountable”.

She’s right, but of course her solution was to campaign against improving Wales’ law making powers. So how do we address the problem of accountability and scrutiny in a more autonomous Wales?

Cymru Yfory have an answer to this question, and they’ve been perfectly consistent in making the case of the Richard Commission. They say the number of Assembly Members needs to be increased from 60 to 80. Their position seems to have has support from unexpected quarters. In a letter to the Western Mail in the aftermath of the vote the former Labour leader of Bridgend Council, Jeff Jones, wrote that “one of the problems with our Assembly is that it is actually quite a tiny institution with not much depth of talent”. He drew the comparison between the size of the Assembly with the Parliaments of Estonia (which has 101 MPs with a population of 1.3 million), and Ireland (166 TDs and a population of 4.5 million). He might have added that it is also smaller than the House of Representatives in the US states of North Dakota (94), and Vermont (148) – all of which have smaller populations than Wales.

One reason for the consensus in Cardiff Bay?

2011-07-25T00:34:00.000+01:00

Still trying to get my head around the events in Norway and others have a better take on events and what it all means, but my heart goes out to them after such a brutal and senseless attack.

Instead I will stick to domestic politics and a BBC Wales interview with former Tory Assembly leader Nick Bourne over the weekend about his diaries from his time as an AM and to reflect on his defeat in May’s elections and his loss of the Tory Group leadership with Bethan Rhys Roberts.

It’s the sort of standard interview that makes politics go around and for the most part was pretty formulaic except for Nick’s throw away remark about missing most things from his time at the National Assembly except the plenary sessions.

Now for politicians and politics watchers alike Plenary is where the main action happens, it’s where the leaders, backbenchers and parties do battle over policy and the direction of the Country, so it’s rather surprising for Nick Bourne, who was after all Official Leader of the Opposition from 2007 to 2011 and had been an Opposition leader almost since the Assembly began, to admit he did not enjoy his time in the Chamber.

It’s quite a statement suggesting that Nick believed in the consensus that rules Cardiff Bay that he had difficulty carrying out his task of holding the Welsh Government to account, but his admission certainly goes a long way to explaining his lackluster and often forgettable performances at the weekly First Minister’s Questions against both Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones and perhaps explains why he was often upstaged by Lib Dem Kirsty Williams seeming to lack the will and the killer instinct to oppose failing Welsh Government policies over a range of issues from Health, Education, Social Justice and the economy.

But Nick is no longer leader, Andrew RT Davies is and for all the genuine concerns in the Tory Group about his election, he will at least challenge Carwyn Jones and the Welsh Government more robustly week in week out which is more than can be said for his predecessor it seems.

The Fresh Prince of Cwmbran

2011-07-23T17:02:00.000+01:00

Excellent new Goldie Looking Chain video - enjoy !!

No Director General yet, but a new Head of Communication for Edwina

2011-07-20T14:05:00.000+01:00

Edwina Hart is making headlines with a slap down from the Information Commissioner over her refusal to acknowledge and then publish the critical Mckinsey & Co report last year while she was Health Minister.

It good to see Welsh Minsters being held to account for some of the decisions they make (take note Opposition leaders), but its worrying for those who want to see the future disclosure and transparency if the complaint is challenged, because her new Business Department is paranoid enough without having a control freak Minister in charge of it.

However there is a more interesting and telling news about the new Business Minister today , news that she has hired the former Wales Office Head of Communications Andrew Mathias is to become her new Head of Communication & Marketing at the Business, Enterprise Science & Technology Department the Cardiff Bay.

According to David Williamson, Andrew is well liked and has worked with five Welsh Secretaries including the current holder Cheryl Gillan, so he has experience of dealing with strong personalities.

But for all the niceties, our Business Minster still doesn’t have a strategy or a Director General as I blogged about a couple of weeks back, but has hired some pretty heavy weight reinforcements to try and sell her Department and the Welsh Government’s ongoing failures over the Welsh economy to a skeptical business community – good to see she’s got her priorities sorted.

Quote of the Day

2011-07-18T16:31:00.000+01:00

From ITV Wales’s blog on the continued fallout from Peter Hain’s 'intervention' on changing the Assembly’s electoral system.

‘A reasonable test for a properly functioning democracy might be whether its electoral system and political parties are capable both of delivering a government with a working majority and of creating the possibility of different parties forming that government.

The belief by many in the Labour party that they should only form a coalition if absolutely necessary means that Wales has only had majority government for seven of the twelve years since the Assembly was established.

As soon as Labour gets to thirty seats, their coalition partners –the Lib Dems in 2003 and Plaid Cymru in 2011- are ditched.

The Assembly doesn’t do very well under the second half of the test either, as the collapse of the attempt at a ‘rainbow’ coalition in 2007 demonstrated.

But the whole issue of how the Assembly is elected has been thrown open as a result of the cut in the number of Westminster constituencies.'

'George Osborne, the new Macavity'

2011-07-17T14:00:00.001+01:00

John Rentoul in the Sunday Independent has finally said what many knew and few would say publicly, that it was George Osbourne who recommended Andy Coulson to David Cameron.

John writes 'Oh yes. George Osborne. Remember him? Not been seen much in public recently. He's probably locked in one of those rooms off the corridors of power, doing the brilliant strategising for which he is renowned. His absences; his reputation for thinking ahead; and his importance to his party's economic credibility – he seems to be turning into a Tory Gordon Brown. Among the many paradoxes of politics last week was Brown's sudden visibility, complaining in the Commons about his own failure as Prime Minister to order an inquiry into the whole murky Murdoch business: "My desire to have a judicial inquiry", he said, "was opposed by the police, opposed by the Home Office and opposed by the Civil Service."

Meanwhile, Osborne has been doing the old Macavity routine, about which the Tories used to enjoy taunting Brown when he was Chancellor. Osborne has even been rather quiet, I am told, in the series of crisis meetings in Downing Street. Out of embarrassment, no one has pointed out that it was his genius idea to hire Andy Coulson, the former editor of News of the World, as Cameron's head of communications in the first place. But everyone knows it.

Which was why it was significant that the Prime Minister was so keen to "take full responsibility" for hiring Coulson in his emergency news conference on 8 July: "The decision to hire him was mine and mine alone," he said. "I took the decision – as I say, my decision, my decision alone – to give him a second chance... That was a decision I took, a decision I will be held responsible for... I'm responsible for the decisions I take, the people I employ, the government I run. The buck stops right here."

We got the point. The real point, I understand, is to "protect George". Cameron has realised that Osborne's reputation is terribly important to the Government. Just as Brown became ironclad because his stewardship of the economy was so successful – if you can remember that far back – and unsackable.

Osborne went to lots of parties and meetings with News International people too, but the Chancellor must be protected from the Murdoch contagion, so that the markets will continue to have confidence in his handling of the economy. This is an unexpected effect of the phone-hacking scandal, binding the coalition even tighter to Osborne's policy on the deficit – a policy in which even the most unpolitical member of a focus group has a strong and personal interest.'

It's Andrew it is

2011-07-14T16:02:00.003+01:00

So after the very low key affair that was the Tory Leadership contest has ended, Andrew RT Davies was elected to be the new Party leader in Cardiff Bay and Leader of the Opposition beating his opponent Nick Ramsay by 53% to 46%.

The result certainly shows that the Conservative Party in Wales has changed since 1999 but not as much as some AM’s and those at the top of the Party would like.

And for those despairing/cheering about the Tory Party going backwards now that the arch Thatcherite right winger is in charge, just look at those who supported Andrew’s campaign and as is often the case leadership moderates individuals because they have to speak for all parts of the party.

Andrew’s immediate task is to get all his Assembly colleagues to sign up to his less consensual way forward not an easy task and then appoint a Shadow Cabinet. Will Paul Davies be deputy leader, what post will Nick Ramsey get and will any of the newbies get a portfolio?

And whatever you think of the new Tory leader short term he will certainly shake things up in the Chamber and at First Minister Question’s and no doubt focus much more on Labour’s weak spot the Welsh economy, unlike his predecessor Nick Bourne, although he will have to wait until September for the Assembly to reconvene before trying to unsettle Carwyn Jones.

But a word of caution as Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams knows all too well good performances in the chamber often mean nothing because few people take any interest in what goes on in Cardiff Bay and even less is reported beyond the bubble.

It will also be interesting to see how he works with the other Opposition leaders most notably Ieuan Wyn Jones who will have trouble supporting Andrew economic stances and Kirsty Williams who has been used to unofficially occupying the leader of the opposition role and getting under the First Minister skin.

As for Labour they will be delighted despite the David Taylor inspired articles in the Western Mail about Andrew being unfit for the job and feigning worry about his impending leadership.

In short a good day for Andrew RT Davies and Labour and a bad day for Welsh politics.

Eat your heart out Cardiff Airport

2011-07-12T23:33:00.000+01:00

The Independent reports on Ryanair’s new deal at Manchester Airport with 20 new routes and potentially creating 2,000 new jobs after pulling out of the airport 18 months ago, will Cardiff Airport’s Management learn lessons from this and adapt for the sake of Welsh air passengers and business travellers?

'Up to 2,000 new jobs could be created after Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary announced a raft of new routes from Manchester Airport.

Mr O'Leary said 20 new routes will be added to the existing six operated from Manchester, to be opened by summer 2012 and delivering up to two million passengers a year.

New routes from the Irish air carrier include flights to Barcelona, Brussels, Ibiza, Rome, Paris and Milan.

Starting from October two new aircraft will be based at the airport, bringing 250 new jobs immediately, expanding to four new planes and 26 routes by 2012.

Mr O'Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, told a press conference at Manchester Airport the expansion would create 2,000 new jobs both at the airport, with pilots, cabin crew and other work generated in the local economy.

"Ryanair is delighted to unveil Manchester as our 45th base with 26 routes," he said.

"It is great news for Ryanair, for Manchester and terrific news for the industry and local economy."
Manchester is the fourth largest airport in the UK in terms of passenger numbers.

Today's announcement comes less than 18 months after the airline pulled out many routes in Manchester, in a dispute over costs.

But the latest announcement comes after the carrier struck a multi-million pound deal with the airport to introduce thousands of budget flights.

Mr O'Leary, wearing a Manchester City FC shirt, added: "It is like every marriage, you have to work at it. It is not always plain sailing, there's the occasional bust up, but making up is always better than breaking up.

"I think it's like a marriage, there has been compromises on both sides. Being the poor airline we have had to compromise more."

Mr O'Leary dismissed complaints about poor customer service as "bullshit" and originating from the "consumer pages of newspapers."

He said the expansion would not damage trade at Liverpool's John Lennon Airport, which he said was continuing to expand.

Major : Scots should have devolution max

2011-07-10T14:23:00.001+01:00

I’m sure I should be more concerned about the deckchair rearranging at News International and the feigned outrage of politicians and police who are belatedly growing spines in response to whole sick and sordid affair, but then that would assume that things are likely to change anytime soon. The Screws has folded to be replaced by the Sun on Sunday and BSkyB will be in full Murdoch control within the year, that much is obvious, the rest of the circus is to make weary voters feel as if change is taking place.

As for ongoing Welsh Lib Dem slow motion car crash/farce it proves that things can always get worse for them (hard to believe I know), but the fact they could still end up in Government before the end of the current Assembly term will help debase Welsh politics even further in the public’s mind, something that should worry all parties.

But back to former Tory PM John Major’s speech on the future of Scottish Devolution, he appears to be laying the ground on behalf of current Tory PM David Cameron for some serious constitutional changes at least between England and Scotland. No doubt Scotland' First Minister is delighted.

According to Nick Robinson he said "The present quasi-federalist settlement with Scotland is unsustainable. Each year of devolution has moved Scotland further from England. Scottish ambition is fraying English tolerance. This is a tie that will snap - unless the issue is resolved.

"The union between England and Scotland cannot be maintained by constant aggravation in Scotland and appeasement in London. I believe it is time to confront the argument head on.

"Why not devolve all responsibilities except foreign policy, defence and management of the economy? Why not let Scotland have wider tax-raising powers to pay for their policies and, in return, abolish the present block grant settlement, reduce Scottish representation in the Commons, and cut the legislative burden at Westminster?

"My own view on Scottish independence is very straightforward: it would be folly - bad for Scotland and bad for England - but, if Scots insist on it, England cannot - and should not - deny them."

You could be cynical and say that David Cameron doesn’t want to be remembered are the PM who lost Scotland and is willing to grant Alex Salmond a lot of things he wouldn’t have dreamed about a few years back to keep him sweet, but it’s still a big step change for Party that until recently was the Conservative and Unionist Party. As yet I haven’t seen any response from Labour.

As for what all this means for Wales in the short term not a lot i suspect, but it could alter things medium and long term if Scotland gets wider ranging new powers and can set its own course, there’s more in the Sunday Telegraph.

Who will be Edwina’s new Director General?

2011-07-08T00:30:00.001+01:00

Sion Barry is reporting that the top civil servant vacancy in the Business, Enterprise, Technology & Science department is to be filled shortly after being advertised through Cardiff headhunting firm Ogders & Berndston.

He states ‘It is understood that she has struck up a good working relationship with interim head of the department James Price, who has to be a front-runner for the new role permanent if he has applied.

Mr Price was brought in last year after former director-general Gareth Hall was given a new role in North Wales.

Mr Price was highly regarded by former Minister for the Economy and Transport Andrew Davies and also played a key role with Plaid’s Ieuan Wyn Jones – Mrs Hart’s predecessor in the department – in helping to implement his Economic Renewal Programme.'

Sion also goes on to also make some interesting suggestions about who else might be considered to fill the role ‘With public sector job losses in Whitehall, the role will no doubt attract interest from experienced civil servants in London.

Having a former senior Whitehall civil servant at the helm of the department could
be a very positive move, not only in bringing an outside perspective, but in providing a deep understanding of the workings of the UK coalition Government.

There is also scope for going outside of the UK civil service and appointing someone from the private sector – or if in the public sector someone with notable private sector experience.

In a move designed to make the role more attractive to candidates from the private sector, the director-general role is also to be offered as a seconded post for up to five years’.

Whoever ends up getting the job it seems there will be little room for changing course and trying to help revive the welsh economy as Edwina Hart has publically stated she is sticking with the discredited Economic Renewal Plan plus that the previous Welsh Government introduced in July last year.

Its a shame for the 115,000 currently unemployed in Wales and the tens of thousands of welsh people about to be hit hard by the UK Government's welfare changes(some of which we in place before they came to power) who need real jobs and not more 'training places schemes' dressed up as job creation from the Welsh Government if its really serious about turning things around.

Huffington Post launches UK Edition

2011-07-06T16:21:00.002+01:00

Launching a new media platform in the week the News International scandal storm is breaking over the heads of the media, politicians and the Metropolitan Police is very good timing indeed.

The US Huffington Post is the brainchild of Arianna Huffington and has been going since 2005, it covers a everything from politics to technology to celebrity gossip, sport and beyond like it’s new UK counterpart and its UK launch is the latest in a series of 12 additional roll outs of the media platform across the world.

The UK version is available here.

And for what it’s worth there are links to the ever shrinking Welsh media on the front page – a small acknowledgement that Wales is real and matters.

Labour’s given up on lobby briefings

2011-07-05T00:15:00.001+01:00

It’s a worrying but perhaps not entirely surprising development now that Labour is solely in charge of the Welsh Government that it hasn’t given a weekly lobby briefing since the Assembly eventually returned to work after May’s elections unlike the three Opposition parties.

Maybe it’s the fact the new Minister’s still aren’t quite up to speed with their new portfolios and want to avoid awkward questions, who knows but according to BBC Wales Political Editor Betsan Powys the Government’s lobby briefings may disappear all together.

She writes ‘There was no government briefing (28th June). There hasn't been one since the election and rumour has it that it might never reappear. How the new Welsh government intends to communicate its policies with the lobby - and with you - is still a work in progress.’

To outsiders lobby briefings may seem unimportant but they remain the main way of Government’s and Opposition Parties gaining a wide platform and audience for their policies, political spin and rebuttals which generate the news stories, blog entries and tweets that are the life blood of politics. It also raises questions about why Labour is now choosing to ignore these opportunities given the low profile of Welsh politics among the electorate.

As for the ‘do it yourself’ idea of the Welsh Government bypassing the press to reach voters there’s a touch of the Pravda about it, the Welsh media have plenty of faults and some Welsh journalists are too willing to swallow the party line, but they still have a place and reach a far larger proportion of the Welsh population reporting Welsh news, including the goings on in Welsh politics which have a direct impact on people’s lives, something that is surely preferable to the unchallenged propaganda that the Labour Government would pump out daily.

But what really grates is at the same time as Welsh Assembly has the ability to make laws the need for scrutiny has never been greater, Labour feels able to withdraw from the weekly lobby briefings and media scrutiny of its Programme for Government safe in the knowledge that not only is there nothing anyone can do about it, but that it will make no difference to voters view of the Party come election time - Welsh democracy at its finest.

Cameron’s lack of interest in detail costing him dear

2011-07-03T14:12:00.000+01:00

We can safely assume from the deafening silence of Coalition Minster’s today, that the Prime Minister has in the six months since the letter was written, talked his Communities Secretary Eric Pickles and most of the Cabinet around to the idea that up to 40,000 families losing the roof over their heads as well as the additional staffing and financial burden on Local Authorities caused by changes to Housing Benefit is a price worth paying for Labour’s mismanagement of the economy rather than a calculated attack on those who can’t fight back.

The Government’s big idea remains to slash and burn the welfare budget so that other department’s don’t have to cut as deep or hard, but as always with benefit changes there are big financial as well as human costs to factor in to these decisions that always end up costing Government’s money, something David Cameron is learning the hard way.

You’d like to think today's revelations and yesterday’s threat of legal action from disability charities will make the Prime Minister take more interest in the details of his welfare policy shake up, but judging from past experience I doubt we’ll see any change.

Digby Jones latest to berate WAG’s decision to mothball WDA

2011-06-30T00:23:00.000+01:00

It won’t make any difference to tone deaf Labour Minister’s in Cardiff Bay who are unlikely to reverse the decision and plough on with the discredited Economic Renewal Plan plus, but it’s certainly worth mentioning another influential UK Business figure questioning the wisdom of former First Minister Rhodri Morgan’s decision, supported by other parties to take the WDA in-house to the Welsh Government which by most impartial analysis resulted in a worsening performance of the Welsh economy.

Digby Jones is a former Minister and head of the CBI, but more importantly in this context a former employee at West Midlands Development Agency in the 1980’s – one of the Welsh Development Agency main competitors, he spoke of the WDA’ s prowess in its quick response mainly due to a lack of political interference.

In his interview he said “When I was part of the West Midlands development agency in the 1980s, the best inward investment agency in Britain was the WDA. They were so far ahead of all the other development agencies.”

This was partly because they were “quick off the mark and could respond quickly,” and partly because they were non-political, he said.

“I think its demise should be lamented,” he added.

“If you want to make it more relevant to a changing investment criteria around the world fine, but to bring it inside the tent of party politics is no way to attract private sector investment from anywhere.”

The full interview is wide ranging and covers issues such as Corporation Tax and tax and borrowing powers for the Welsh Assembly and includes another rebuke to add to the First Minister Carwyn Jones growing collection on his borrowing powers only line, Digby points out that any borrowing need tax raising powers to compliment them in order for any debt to be repaid otherwise problem will arise.

‘Twenty reasons why it’s kicking off everywhere’ (except Wales)

2011-06-28T00:15:00.000+01:00

Newsnight’s Economics Editor Paul Mason penned his thought a few months back on the protests against austerity and uprisings in the Middle East and Europe, the full post is here and worth a read.

He writes ‘At the heart of it all are young people, obviously; students; westernised; secularised. They use social media - as the mainstream media has now woken up to - but this obsession with reporting "they use twitter" is missing the point of what they use it for.

In so far as there are common threads to be found in these different situation, here's 20 things I have spotted:

1. At the heart if it all is a new sociological type: the graduate with no future

2. ...with access to social media, such as Facebook, Twitter and eg Yfrog so they can express themselves in a variety of situations ranging from parliamentary democracy to tyrrany.

3. Therefore truth moves faster than lies, and propaganda becomes flammable.

4. They are not prone to traditional and endemic ideologies: Labourism, Islamism, Fianna Fail Catholicism etc... in fact hermetic ideologies of all forms are rejected.

5. Women very numerous as the backbone of movements. After twenty years of modernised labour markets and higher-education access the "archetypal" protest leader, organizer, facilitator, spokesperson now is an educated young woman.

6. Horizontalism has become endemic because technology makes it easy: it kills vertical hierarchies spontaneously, whereas before - and the quintessential experience of the 20th century - was the killing of dissent within movements, the channeling of movements and their bureaucratisaton.

7. Memes: "A meme acts as a unit for carrying cultural ideas symbols or practices, which can be transmitted from one mind to another through writing, speech, gestures, rituals or other imitable phenomena. Supporters of the concept regard memes as cultural analogues to genes, in that they self-replicate, mutate and respond to selective pressures." (Wikipedia) - so what happens is that ideas arise, are very quickly "market tested" and either take off, bubble under, insinuate themselves or if they are deemed no good they disappear. Ideas self-replicate like genes. Prior to the internet this theory (see Richard Dawkins, 1976) seemed an over-statement but you can now clearly trace the evolution of memes.

8. They all seem to know each other: not only is the network more powerful than the hierarchy - but the ad-hoc network has become easier to form. So if you "follow" somebody from the UCL occupation on Twitter, as I have done, you can easily run into a radical blogger from Egypt, or a lecturer in peaceful resistance in California who mainly does work on Burma so then there are the Burmese tweets to follow. During the early 20th century people would ride hanging on the undersides of train carriages across borders just to make links like these.

9. The specifics of economic failure: the rise of mass access to university-level education is a given. Maybe soon even 50% in higher education will be not enough. In most of the world this is being funded by personal indebtedess - so people are making a rational judgement to go into debt so they will be better paid later. However the prospect of ten years of fiscal retrenchment in some countries means they now know they will be poorer than their parents. And the effect has been like throwing a light switch; the prosperity story is replaced with the doom story, even if for individuals reality will be more complex, and not as bad as they expect.

10.This evaporation of a promise is compounded in the more repressive societies and emerging markets because - even where you get rapid economic growth - it cannot absorb the demographic bulge of young people fast enough to deliver rising living standards for enough of them.

11.To amplify: I can't find the quote but one of the historians of the French Revolution of 1789 wrote that it was not the product of poor people but of poor lawyers. You can have political/economic setups that disappoint the poor for generations - but if lawyers, teachers and doctors are sitting in their garrets freezing and starving you get revolution. Now, in their garrets, they have a laptop and broadband connection.

12.The weakness of organised labour means there's a changed relationship between the radicalized middle class, the poor and the organised workforce. The world looks more like 19th century Paris - heavy predomination of the "progressive" intelligentsia, intermixing with the slum-dwellers at numerous social interfaces (cabarets in the 19C, raves now); huge social fear of the excluded poor but also many rags to riches stories celebrated in the media (Fifty Cent etc); meanwhile the solidaristic culture and respectability of organized labour is still there but, as in Egypt, they find themselves a "stage army" to be marched on and off the scene of history.

13.This leads to a loss of fear among the young radicals of any movement: they can pick and choose; there is no confrontation they can't retreat from. They can "have a day off" from protesting, occupying: whereas twith he old working-class based movements, their place in the ranks of battle was determined and they couldn't retreat once things started. You couldn't "have a day off" from the miners' strike if you lived in a pit village.

14.In addition to a day off, you can "mix and match": I have met people who do community organizing one day, and the next are on a flotilla to Gaza; then they pop up working for a think tank on sustainable energy; then they're writing a book about something completely different. I was astonished to find people I had interviewed inside the UCL occupation blogging from Tahrir Square this week.

15. People just know more than they used to. Dictatorships rely not just on the suppression of news but on the suppression of narratives and truth. More or less everything you need to know to make sense of the world is available as freely downloadable content on the internet: and it's not pre-digested for you by your teachers, parents, priests, imams. For example there are huge numbers of facts available to me now about the subjects I studied at university that were not known when I was there in the 1980s. Then whole academic terms would be spent disputing basic facts, or trying to research them. Now that is still true but the plane of reasoning can be more complex because people have an instant reference source for the undisputed premises of arguments. It's as if physics has been replaced by quantum physics, but in every discipline.

16.There is no Cold War, and the War on Terror is not as effective as the Cold War was in solidifying elites against change. Egypt is proving to be a worked example of this: though it is highly likely things will spiral out of control, post Mubarak - as in all the colour revolutons - the dire warnings of the US right that this will lead to Islamism are a "meme" that has not taken off. In fact you could make an interesting study of how the meme starts, blossoms and fades away over the space of 12 days. To be clear: I am not saying they are wrong - only that the fear of an Islamist takeover in Egypt has not been strong enough to swing the US presidency or the media behind Mubarak.

17. It is - with international pressure and some powerful NGOs - possible to bring down a repressive government without having to spend years in the jungle as a guerilla, or years in the urban underground: instead the oppositional youth - both in the west in repressive regimes like Tunisia/Egypt, and above all in China - live in a virtual undergrowth online and through digital comms networks. The internet is not key here - it is for example the things people swap by text message, the music they swap with each other etc: the hidden meanings in graffiti, street art etc which those in authority fail to spot.

18. People have a better understanding of power. The activists have read their Chomsky and their Hardt-Negri, but the ideas therein have become mimetic: young people believe the issues are no longer class and economics but simply power: they are clever to the point of expertise in knowing how to mess up hierarchies and see the various "revolutions" in their own lives as part of an "exodus" from oppression, not - as previous generations did - as a "diversion into the personal". While Foucault could tell Gilles Deleuze: "We had to wait until the nineteenth century before we began to understand the nature of exploitation, and to this day, we have yet to fully comprehend the nature of power",- that's probably changed.

19. As the algebraic sum of all these factors it feels like the protest "meme" that is sweeping the world - if that premise is indeed true - is profoundly less radical on economics than the one that swept the world in the 1910s and 1920s; they don't seek a total overturn: they seek a moderation of excesses. However on politics the common theme is the dissolution of centralized power and the demand for "autonomy" and personal freedom in addition to formal democracy and an end to corrupt, family based power-elites.

20. Technology has - in many ways, from the contraceptive pill to the iPod, the blog and the CCTV camera - expanded the space and power of the individual.'

Amartya Sen on Greek debt, ratings agencies and the threat to European democracy

2011-06-24T00:57:00.000+01:00

Welsh politics is depressing me no end, so I thought i’d share this lengthy piece from Nobel Winning Economist and author of Development as Freedom Amartya Sen on the real crisis facing us.

He writes ‘Europe has led the world in the practice of democracy. It is therefore worrying that the dangers to democratic governance today, coming through the back door of financial priority, are not receiving the attention they should. There are profound issues to be faced about how Europe's democratic governance could be undermined by the hugely heightened role of financial institutions and rating agencies, which now lord it freely over parts of Europe's political terrain.

Two distinct issues need to be separated. The first concerns the place of democratic priorities, including what Walter Bagehot and John Stuart Mill saw as the need for "governance by discussion". Suppose we accept that the powerful financial bosses have a realistic understanding of what needs to be done. This would strengthen the case for paying attention to their voices in a democratic dialogue. But that is not the same thing as allowing the international financial institutions and rating agencies the unilateral power to command democratically elected governments.

Second, it is quite hard to see that the sacrifices that the financial commanders have been demanding from precarious countries would deliver the ultimate viability of these countries and guarantee the continuation of the euro within an unreformed pattern of financial amalgamation and an unchanged membership of the euro club. The diagnosis of economic problems by rating agencies is not the voice of verity that they pretend. It is worth remembering that the record of rating agencies in certifying financial and business institutions preceding the 2008 economic crisis was so abysmal that the US Congress seriously debated whether they should be prosecuted.

Since much of Europe is now engaged in achieving quick reduction of public deficits through drastic reduction of public expenditure, it is crucial to scrutinise realistically what the likely impact of the chosen policies may be, both on people and the generating of public revenue through economic growth. The high morals of "sacrifice" do, of course, have an intoxicating effect. This is the philosophy of the "right" corset: "If madam is at all comfortable in it, then madam certainly needs a smaller size." However, if the demands of financial appropriateness are linked too mechanically to immediate cuts, the result could be the killing of the goose that lays the golden egg of economic growth.

This concern applies to a number of countries, from Britain to Greece. The commonality of the "blood, sweat and tears" strategy of deficit reduction gives some apparent plausibility to what is being imposed on more precarious countries like Greece or Portugal. It also makes it harder to have a united political voice in Europe that can stand up to the panic generated in the financial markets.
In addition to a bigger political vision, there is a need for clearer economic thinking. The tendency to ignore the importance of economic growth in generating public revenue should be a major item for scrutiny. The strong connection between growth and public revenue has been observed in many countries, from China and India to the US and Brazil.

There are lessons from history here, too. The big public debts of many countries when the second world war ended caused huge anxieties, but the burden diminished rapidly thanks to fast economic growth. Similarly, the huge deficits that President Clinton faced when he came to office in 1992 melted away during his presidency, greatly aided by speedy economic growth.

The fear of a threat to democracy does not, of course, apply to Britain, since these policies have been chosen by a government empowered by democratic elections.

Even though the unfolding of a strategy that was not revealed at the time of election can be a reason for some pause, this is the kind of freedom that a democratic system does allow the electorally victorious. But that does not eliminate the need for more public discussion, even in Britain. There is also a need to recognise how the self-chosen restrictive policies in Britain seem to give plausibility to the even more drastic policies being imposed on Greece..

How did some of the euro countries get into this mess? The oddity of going for a united currency without more political and economic integration has certainly played a part, even after taking note of financial transgressions that have undoubtedly been committed in the past by countries such as Greece or Portugal (and even after noting Mario Monti's important point that a culture of "excessive deference" in the EU has allowed these transgressions to go unchecked).

It is to the huge credit of the Greek government – George Papandreou, the prime minister, in particular – that it is doing what it can despite political resistance, but the pained willingness of Athens to comply does not eliminate the European need to examine the wisdom of the requirements – and the timing – being imposed on Greece.

It is no consolation for me to recollect that I was firmly opposed to the euro, despite being very strongly in favour of European unity. My worry about the euro was partly connected with each country giving up the freedom of monetary policy and of exchange rate adjustments, which have greatly helped countries in difficulty in the past, and prevented the necessity of massive destabilisation of human lives in frantic efforts to stabilise the financial markets. That monetary freedom could be given up when there is also political and fiscal integration (as the states in the US have), but the halfway house of the eurozone has been a recipe for disaster. The wonderful political idea of a united democratic Europe has been made to incorporate a precarious programme of incoherent financial amalgamation.

Rearranging the eurozone now would have many problems, but difficult issues have to be intelligently discussed, rather than allowing Europe to drift in financial winds fed by narrow-minded thinking with a terrible track record. The process has to begin with some immediate restraining of the unopposed power of rating agencies to issue unilateral commands. These agencies are hard to discipline despite their abysmal record, but a well-reflected voice of legitimate governments can make a big difference to financial confidence while solutions are worked out, especially if the international financial institutions lend their support. Stopping the marginalisation of the democratic tradition of Europe has an urgency that is hard to exaggerate. European democracy is important for Europe – and for the world'

TAN 8 is latest evidence the First Minster is a follower not a leader

2011-06-22T00:29:00.000+01:00

First Minister Carwyn Jones and his advisors are probably feeling good about their ‘victory’ over the UK Government over TAN 8 and devolving energy powers by highlighting the UK Government hostility to devolving powers to the Welsh Assembly and proving they are ‘standing up for Wales’.

I hate to burst the bubble but the TAN 8 fiasco was nothing of the sort, the whole thing is a humiliating climb down followed by opportunism and a master class in distraction politics from a Welsh Government under pressure over its own energy policy failures.

Welsh Government Minster’s knew full well during the last Assembly term the groundswell of anger of residents in Montgomeryshire against the wind farm proposals and wider concerns of residents in Mid Wales, but stubbornly refused to change the TAN 8 guidance despite being lobbied and pressed on the matter by campaigners.

Cawryn was the Environment Minister who signed off TAN 8 and has only acted now because there are political points to be scored from the evil Tories being nasty to Wales narrative rather than any point of principle. His phrase about ‘if we are going to be blamed for the development we might as well have the powers’ on Monday sums up his thinking.

Maybe he should be reminded that devolving the energy powers to Cardiff Bay could have been done by the previous Labour Government, it didn’t happen surprise surprise because Welsh natural resources are valuable and no UK Government is going to give them up without a fight. So blaming the Conservative/Lib Dem Coalition for doing what the Labour Government did before it is disingenuous and more than a touch cynical.

It’s also worth saying there is cross party support in the Assembly for energy powers to be devolved, something that has been missing from the reporting of the story so far. A united Welsh political voice is a stronger voice in negotiating with Whitehall, when will the Welsh Government learn this fact and use it to our advantage?

But the saddest part about this is that for all the heat and light it generated its changed little if anything. The wind farm and substation in Montgomeryshire could still get the go ahead as the decision is made by the UK Government and the powers won’t be devolved to the Welsh Government.

If that turns out to be the case then it’s a double failure for the Welsh Government that, like so many failures before it will be dressed up as success and swallowed by a gullible media and electorate.

New boss, same old problems

2011-06-20T00:24:00.001+01:00

As Plaid Cymru big wigs gathered in Aberystwyth to rake over the ashes of their latest electoral setback there seems little acknowledgement among them of the hole the Party is in.

They have instigated a root and branch review of all Plaid Cymru’s activities to be led by Eurfyl ap Gwilym and appointed a new Chief Executive Rhuanedd Richards, a former BBC Wales employee and One Wales SpAd, who claimed it wasn’t a crisis but a sense of urgency that the party faced.

All well and good, but it looks like a shuffling of the pack rather than signifying any meaningful changes are afoot. After all these were some of the people in positions of influence when the party’s 2010 General Election fiasco was unfolding followed by May’s debacle, how can they be the ones to turn the Party’s fortunes around members will rightly ask?

And even if the review comes up with new ideas and policies, something Plaid Cymru are pretty good at, the dilemma as most Plaid and others bloggers have debated since the Assembly election, is which direction do they go?

Some want a harder nationalist message that they think will appeal to voters, another group think a few tweaks to the status quo and negotiation of a One Wales 2 Coalition is the answer, others meanwhile want more breathing space and to shift the focus onto economic matters that will chime with voters in these tough economic times, while others think the cultural agenda needs more prevalence – it’s not something the Ieuan Wyn Jones’s successor can’t easily resolve, but they will need to if they are to be more than minor players.

And then there is the issue of the Welsh language, whether Plaid like it or not they are still seen as the best language pressure group in Wales rather than a serious political party by many, a point reinforced their internal polling.

And as Professor Roger Scully said in response to Adam Price’s essay ‘Any party effectively ruling out 65% of the population is going to be likely to struggle.’ It’s a valid but hardly new or insightful point and one that needs thought and tackling head on if Plaid are not just to breakthrough, but build support in places they are currently nonexistent as well as keep their heartlands happy.

All the parties apart from Labour are struggling after the election and it would have been a period of reflection and readjustment for Plaid Cymru anyway with such poor Welsh Assembly results, but their problems are magnified when the SNP are riding the crest of a wave in Scotland. Only time will tell if they learn lessons and succeed in reconnecting with the Welsh electorate in a meaningful way.

Has Carwyn done a U-turn on Corporation Tax?

2011-06-17T17:55:00.000+01:00

Despite the First Minister Carwyn Jones seeming reluctant over the past few weeks to even contemplate Corporation Tax powers for Wales, there seems to be a change of heart from the Welsh Government.

Especially in light of the Northern Ireland’s First Minsters pressing a strong case that has political and business backing and Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond calling for Corporation Tax powers to be devolved to the Scottish Parliament as soon as possible and Carwyn was on his own calling for only borrowing powers at the Devolved Heads meeting and the Joint Ministerial Committee meeting a few weeks ago.

In a reply to the Belfast Telegraph the Welsh Government yesterday seemed to back powers for Wales if they are granted elsewhere.

A Welsh Government spokesman said: “We are aware that the UK Government is considering devolving powers over corporation tax to Northern Ireland.

“If the UK Government does propose to devolve corporation tax powers to one or more of the devolved administrations, it should make a similar offer to Wales.”

The corporation tax issue is due to be debated in the Welsh Assembly early next week.

However there are a few caveats, notice the use of the words ‘similar offer’. What does the Welsh Government's similar offer look like and of course any offer can be rejected.

Maybe Carwyn and his team are finally waking up to the fact they are isolated by calling for only borrowing powers and taking on board the criticism leveled at him and are responding albeit slowly and cautiously to it, something to be welcomed and noted by the Opposition Parties if they want to change things in the months and years ahead.

Time for Action not Defence on the Welsh Economy

2011-06-15T16:09:00.001+01:00

Sir Roger Jones calls yesterday at the Welsh Affairs Committee for an arm’s length economic body to be set up as soon as possible after he accused the Welsh Government of wasting £100 million per year on economic development programmes that have achieved ‘next to nothing’ weren’t new but are certainly welcome.

Anyone who wants to see more investment, jobs and prosperity in Wales and those who have had the misfortune to have dealt with the inept civil servants and bureaucracy in the Economic & Business Department over the years will be hoping that Sir Roger’s calls will gain traction and become a reality, especially as economically things are about to get a whole lot worse here in Wales with the full impact of the public sector job losses.

And at a time when most acknowledge that the Welsh Government has few tools at its disposal to help the Welsh economy grow, a new arms length development agency is something that needs only political will to make it a reality.

Will the Welsh Government come out from its complacent and defensive shield and grasp the opportunity to make Wales more prosperous - judging by the slim pickings in Carwyn Jones statement of his priorities for Government for the next 5 years, I doubt it.

But the Opposition Parties have a chance to push to get a new development agency off the ground and put their energies into this rather than continually deride a Government that has no clue on economic matters or will to change the status quo.

Andrew RT Davies, Dylan Jones Evans and the WDA

2011-06-14T13:33:00.000+01:00

It’s fair to say that the contest to replace Nick Bourne as leader of the Conservative National Assembly Group has been low key attracting little interest from the press, bloggers or other parties and politicians despite Andrew RT Davies and Nick Ramsey being on the campaign trail for a few weeks.

Interest may or may not change in the weeks ahead but two things caught my eye today, both about Andrew RT Davies, firstly he announced that he wants to re-establish the WDA to help ‘drive Wales economic recovery’ as part of his Manifesto and secondly Professor Dylan Jones Evans endorsement of him for leader in the Daily Post.

First on the issue of the resurrection of the Welsh Development Agency isn’t a new idea, but it highlights alternative economic thinking to the current Economic Renewal Programme plus orthodoxy that Labour and Plaid Cymru have and continue to support and has done little for the Welsh economy. It also challenges the other parties over their support for the abolition of the WDA, ELWa and the Wales Tourist Board back in 2005.

On the second point Andrew and his team will be delighted to get the backing of Dylan Jones Evans, not just because he is well respected outside as well as inside the Tory Party and riding on the crest of a wave after his Welsh ‘Silicon Valley’ office announcement last week but also because Dylan will help counter Andrew’s anti-devolutionist views.

I have no idea how the contest is going and Nick Ramsey and his campaign manager former AM Jonathan Morgan are certainly no slouches. Both Nick and Jonathan have appeal beyond traditional Tory voters and have picked up endorsements from fellow AM’s helping their modernising credentials. And Nick’s team have rightly pointed out that the Party is in danger of going backwards under the wrong leadership and wasting the work of Nick Bourne in helping making the Tories more comfortable with devolution.

As for the other parties they would like nothing more than Andrew RT Davies leading the opposition in Cardiff Bay, so that he and the Conservative Group could be painted as right wing reactionaries who are enjoying the destruction to Welsh communities caused by the cuts, but as is the case in politics be careful what you wish for.

JMC, Programme for Government and beyond

2011-06-10T12:11:00.001+01:00

If the First Minister’s attendance at the devolved head of governments meeting last week was mostly irrelevant and helped Wales little, then his attendance from Wales’s perspective at the Joint Ministerial Committee this week was pointless.

For starters he went to discuss finance matters and didn’t take Jane Hutt his Finance Minister with him, the UK and Scottish Finance Minster did attend which no doubt tilted the balance in their favour during any discussions of the Barnett formula review.

He got no more than a repeat of the promise from the PM about a ‘Calman style commission’ for Wales, no start date and how hard did he argue that the Holtham Commission report had done much of the heavy lifting on that front and in straightened financial times would save money.

And he was mistaken for UK Health Secretary Andrew Lansley as Betsan Powys highlighted, reinforcing the Australian journalists comments about his brand recognition being equal to beetroot lemonade.

It makes me wonder if Carwyn Jones and his staff realise that he doesn’t have to agree with or even like Alex Salmond, Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness, but to get what he wants from the UK Government in terms of Barnett Reform or borrowing powers he needs to work with them for Wales’s benefit, they are allies.

To be fair Carwyn had a temporary reprieve by rightly having a go at Plaid Cymru’s leader for his no shows at the Official Opening and first FMQ’s of the new Parliament and most of the Welsh media have duly fallen into line to change the subject, but his problems aren’t going away.

If his much vaunted Programme for Government to be published in the next few weeks is along the lines of more of the same with a few tweaks, as suggested when the new Business Minster Edwina Hart gave her first interviews this week, then Wales is in real trouble for the next 5 years as it has been for the last 12.

And as several commentators have said devolved matters are likely to dominate political discussion in Wales whether the First Minster, the Welsh Government and the Labour Party want talk about them it or not because of events elsewhere in the UK.

If that’s the case wouldn’t it be a good idea for them to agree some policy positions, so at the very least they sound credible and as if they belong when attending these meetings in the future, meetings that even if the First Minister doesn’t get anything at will have a direct effect on us here in Wales.

Some good news for the Welsh economy at last

2011-06-08T16:28:00.001+01:00

Well done to Dylan Jones Evans and the University of Wales on their new venture, the opening of a Welsh Innovation Office for Welsh start up businesses in ‘Silicon Valley’ in California. Some great news for Wales after yesterday’s shambles in Cardiff Bay.

From Dylan’s blog ‘In a move that will propel innovative Welsh companies into the heart of the American venture capital market, the University of Wales has opened an office in San-Jose, the self-proclaimed ‘capital of Silicon Valley’.

The Irish Innovation Centre (IIC), a launch-pad organisation for Irish start-up businesses in Silicon Valley, has invited the University of Wales to base itself within their company in a nod to a shared Celtic heritage and entrepreneurial spirit.

Together with its affiliate organisation, the Irish Technology Leadership Group (ITLG), the Centre offers a wealth of resources to technology companies making the difficult transition across the Atlantic, including office space, legal and administrative help, conference facilities, and media/PR support.

The support network of the IIC, coupled with its location in Silicon Valley, will present a goldmine of opportunity for Welsh companies wishing to penetrate the US market. The establishment of a Welsh entrepreneurial base in the area could potentially make the US a far less hostile or risky area for Welsh investors and businessman, serving the dual purpose of diversifying and stimulating the Welsh economy.'

The full post is here

What a contrast with the Welsh Government whose actions on the Welsh economy have been non existent following the elections on May 5th.

UPDATE Here's some key quotes from the the Irish Innovation Centre about the partnership, the full press release is here

Professor Dylan Jones-Evans of the University of Wales explains that when he heard about the Irish Innovation Centre, “We thought it was a fantastic idea."

He then wrote about the centre in The Western Mail, praising the centre and wondering why Wales did not have an equivalent.

“Lo and behold I get an email from (ITLG President) John Hartnett saying, ‘we’d be more than happy to share this with our Celtic cousins, and why don’t you come over here and consider whether you’d like an office here for the University of Wales?’ So that’s what we’ve done.

With Jobcentre and private welfare to work staff being made redundant – what chance do the unemployed have?

2011-06-06T21:37:00.000+01:00

We are a week away from the Government’s new welfare to work scheme called the Work Programme (basically Flexible New Deal with extras) going live in Wales.

Not that you would know from any Welsh media, political or current affairs debate or coverage as there has been precious little reporting of it beyond a post on the Bevan Foundation of the changes which Work & Pensions Minister Iain Duncan Smith has said is the greatest shake up of the welfare state since the Second World War.

The two Welsh providers chosen for the bidding process earlier this year are Working Links and Rehab Jobfit. Working Links has been active in welfare to work in Wales for about a decade and Rehab Jobfit is partnership between an Irish welfare to work provider and Interserve, a global support service and construction industry business.

But despite all the positive noises, it’s ironic that proposals which have been welcomed by many in the welfare to work industry and designed to help the neediest job seekers back in to employment could result in thousands of staff being made redundant.

The Department of Work & Pensions expect there will be 2,400 Jobcentre Plus staff cut across the UK (a 20% reduction )and Channel 4 news last week claim 10,000 could be made redundant at private sector welfare to work providers across the country (a 33% reduction), pretty grim news indeed.

All of this raises two questions, first can the Work Programme and it providers who are doing most of the heavy lifting succeed with less staff and higher volumes of clients?

And secondly particularly in Wales where unemployment is a constant feature, a fact reinforced today by the ICAEW/Grant Thornton UK Business Confidence Monitor highlighting worrying weakness in the Welsh labour market – will there be enough jobs created to take the slack of redundancies and the current unemployed in Wales who number 112,000?

'UK Government has made its point on debt, now its time to move on'

2011-06-04T18:31:00.000+01:00

Here’s the final paragraph of an interesting article in the London Evening Standard earlier this week on the UK Government’s obsession with debt and the deficit and how if it wants to succeed economically needs to move on from its current position and focus on growth and job creation.

Anthony Hilton writes ‘It would be wrong to say debt does not matter but we need a sense of proportion - and having made the point, the Government must move on. Talking tough on cuts may keep financial markets onside, but the Government's priority should be to restore economic growth, not fixate about the deficit. Get growth right and the deficit will take care of itself; but a government which defines itself by cuts stands a very good chance of making things worse.

The full article is here

Is there life in Cardiff Bay?

2011-06-02T20:16:00.001+01:00

The Assembly Elections were on 5th May and the results were known that weekend. Shortly after that the Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet were appointed and yet nearly a month has gone by and there are still no signs that any Committees apart from the Business Committee have been formed or any Committee Chair’s appointed or that AM’s know what Committee they will sit on for the next five years.

It would be bad enough for the Government to take such a laid back attitude to these matters before WAG got law making powers, but seen as the Assembly now has legislative powers as well as a minority Government that is in more need than ever of being scrutinised and held to account these decision needs to be made soon, after all Scotland and Northern Ireland have managed it.

And if you think I’m exaggerating events this week are a good example, the Welsh Assembly is on half term while the Scottish Parliament and Northern Ireland Assembly were both sitting and Committees met – time for the Welsh Government to get its act together and get on with the business of governing Wales. After all the issues of tuition fees at Welsh Universities, what the Welsh Government is going to do with the £10 million Enterprise Zone money and the future of Southern Cross Care Homes in Wales to name but a few matters need answers.

Standing Up for Wales, more like an irrelevant spectator

2011-06-01T12:13:00.002+01:00

Yesterday the First Minister’s of the devolved Government’s were in Edinburgh for a meeting to discuss priorities and points of agreement ahead of the Joint Ministerial Committee meeting with the UK Government next week.

This is the first time the four leaders have met face to face since May 5th elections where they all emerged with strengthened mandates and their get togethers are a welcome step in stronger lobbying the UK Government on issues to benefit us all.

I’ve no idea how the meeting went, but at the press conference our First Minister Carwyn Jones was a mere spectator, while Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond and Northern Ireland’s First Ministers Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness discussed Corporation Tax, priorities for the JMC meeting, end of year flexibility, Wikileaks revelations in the Belfast Telegraph and sectarianism in football among other things.

Carwyn was also the only leader not to go through the niceties of welcoming the meeting and thanking his host for his hospitalities and after his brief opening remarks only joined the press conference on the subject of end of year flexibility and to congratulate Swansea City on their promotion to the Premier League while trying not to offend Cardiff City fans as well. Not even a word about his favourite hobby horse borrowing powers for the Assembly!

Add to that the Scottish Government had a comprehensive press release here on the meeting and the Northern Ireland Executive has a press release including the communiqué here, the Welsh Government’s latest story was Local Government Minister Carl Sergeant in Anglesey last Friday 27th May, no mention of the meeting in Edinburgh and I’m not accepting the fact they are on half term holiday. Maybe as a friend said most of our AM’s are all at the Hay Festival this week, alright for some.

And in case you think I’m picking on Carwyn, it wasn’t just the First Minister and the Welsh Government who appear half hearted about these meetings. BBC Wales Political Editor Betsan Powys was also absent from proceedings for the second time unlike her Scottish and Northern Ireland counterparts, she couldn’t make it to Belfast last time the four leaders met and given what’s going on with cuts to BBC Wales budgets shouldn’t senior staff be showing the value of what BBC Wales political and current affairs give to Wales?

The full press conference is here make your own mind up

‘Carwyn Jones has less brand recognition than beetroot lemonade’

2011-05-30T21:04:00.001+01:00

H/T to Vaughan Roderick

What does it say about the sorry state of Wales that it takes an Australian journalist to say what many in the Welsh media and political establishment and bubble in Cardiff Bay refuse or are unwilling to say about our recent elections and the calibre of our First Minister?

Guy Rundle writing on Crikey.com says ‘Wales is really little more than a big local election, yet the poll is not without importance. The assembly has acquired new powers since it was last elected, giving it direct control over health, education and a range of other areas, which hitherto required ratification by Westminster.

The principality leans leftward, and though Labour has been in power since the Assembly was created in the late 90s, it is currently in coalition with Plaid Cymru, which is decisively to the left of it.

Now it looks like Labor will not only be able to govern on its own, but will also have a clear majority, as voters return to it in reaction to the Tories’ cuts. That would make the first minister Carwyn Jones a natural oppositional figure. Sadly, he has less national brand recognition than beetroot lemonade.'

This was written on May 5th before the poll result were known, the rest of the article is here

Amnesty International is 50

2011-05-29T16:39:00.000+01:00

From Amnesty’s Blog on how it came into being and on its 50 years of campaigning for Justice around the world.

"Yet if these feelings of disgust all over the world could be united into common action, something effective could be done.” Peter Benenson

May 1961. Elvis Presley is on the radio. Spurs fans are celebrating topping the football league. President Kennedy announces plans to put a man on the moon.

And one man is outraged by a news report on two Portuguese students imprisoned simply for raising their glasses in a “toast to freedom”. Amnesty International is born.

Because that man, British lawyer Peter Benenson, resolved to turn his outrage into action. He wrote an article called The Forgotten Prisoners which was first published in The Observer on 28 May 1961 and reproduced around the world.

In it Benenson highlighted cases like that of the Portuguese students, coining the phrase ‘prisoner of conscience’. He called for like-minded people to unite in an ‘appeal for amnesty’ on their behalf – and readers responded to that call.

In 1962, we were officially named Amnesty International. And since then, what began as a small band of volunteers based in London has grown to a global movement of 3 million supporters, members and activists with 18 national sections and 850 groups in over 27 countries.

We have written letters, signed petitions, issued urgent actions, demonstrated outside courtrooms and embassies, launched hard-hitting media campaigns and lobbied officials directly. More recently, we have embraced the opportunities offered by social media and mobile communications.

As the world has changed, so have we. But our objective – to protect people when their rights are denied, and end discrimination, persecution and harassment – has remained constant. See the faces of some of the individuals helped by Amnesty in this beautiful video featuring the banners produced for our 50th anniversary AGM.

The full article is here